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WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

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Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were basically insolvent when the extra Softbank cash failed and the IPO failed. And that was before COVID-19. But you make a good point: They owe so much in leases they have huge negotiating power, and with COVID-19 they probably have even more since nobody's renting space right now.

If you have some time, read a few books about how huge debt crises get resolved. It's fascinating. My friend Drew is a huge "bankruptcy geek" and eats this shit up. A good starter book: "This Time It's Different", often referred to as "Rheinhart and Rogoff" by the authors names. https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financi... - great overview of how many nation-state debt crises got resolved. In gener…

Debt: The First 5000 years is also a great read on the topic.

https://www.amazon.com/Debt-Updated-Expanded-First-Years/dp/...

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#112

Pure opinion: On the one hand, they're a real estate company masquerading as a tech company (and getting the funding and valuation unicorns would hope for), and with Coronavirus they have a serious cashflow problem. On the other hand, there will be a burst of people (re)starting small businesses and wanting space on a flexible basis in a few months time...

> On the other hand, there will be a burst of people (re)starting small businesses and wanting space on a flexible basis in a few months time...

I very much disagree. While the shelter-at-home, extreme social distancing regulations may relax, I'm guessing there will be a large percentage of people who will not want to be packed in, in a shared working environment, for at least a year.

I don't think everyone will leave, but business will be way down, and WeWork was marginal in the best of times. It is 100%, completely dead. The only question is how long it will be able to go along in "zombie" status given existing capital and US govt loans.

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#113
post #13

I read that Wework had $4B in the bank at the beginning of the year. Also they are actively trying to reduce their own rent up to 30% from their landlords. And at the same time Wework gives up to 50% discount to its own large tenants, so they can stay during this hard time. No idea how long it can operate like that. If Wework had to crash, I am concerned for the whole US commercial real-estate. Wework is renting so m…

> Wework is renting so many square feet, that it could be a tsunami of empty offices.

Wework has a dozen locations in San Francisco. If that's a tsunami of office space, then the commercial real-estate market in the tech city of the US is much smaller than I thought.

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone estimated how many months WeWork has until it collapses?

Is this informed by any data or facts whatsoever? Last time I checked, WeWork was a going concern with 600,000 customers more or less happy with their service. What would tank them? Are their lease obligations too large and can't be renegotiated? This entire thing is blown so far out of proportion. Like Tesla, it seems like a company that mostly makes products people like, whose equity is extremely hard to value. May…

My understanding is that WeWork's customers are on short term, easily cancelled leases, while WeWork's own leases are long term. In a downturn for office space, that is a recipe for disaster, and it's not like WeWork was particularly stable before the current crisis.

As opposed to Tesla, WeWork's product is fairly fungible, so if general price levels for office space collapse, they don't have much of a moat to lock in customers.

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#115

WeWork has an existential issue in that the entire workforce will emerge from this with at least 2 months of remote work experience. Many, many employers and individuals will realize that remote is OK, and in fact has a ton of benefits.

Your forgetting the obvious overcorrection against remote once it's "safe" everyone who felt they lost control is going to be way worse. Others who are smart will be better. Also you're assuming there aren't a lot of terrible employees taking advantage as well.

There are a lot of terrible managers and terrible employees ruining things for everyone else.

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#117
post #3

Not surprising, was wondering how SoftBank seemingly walked away so easily. If you are Softbank do you use this Covid crisis to back WeWork in to a corner even if their suit is legitimate as they might run out of cash before it reaches the courts? From what I understood SoftBank already owns a majority of WeWork so how does the company they own, suing them work?

No matter what's in the contract, I'm pretty sure it just comes down to Sun saying "You want the money? Sue me. Good luck, you'll never see it."

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#118

Pure opinion: On the one hand, they're a real estate company masquerading as a tech company (and getting the funding and valuation unicorns would hope for), and with Coronavirus they have a serious cashflow problem. On the other hand, there will be a burst of people (re)starting small businesses and wanting space on a flexible basis in a few months time...

The market doesn't demand that a monolithic entity like WeWork exist in order for co-working spaces to exist.

Read up on WeWork's history and what happened with the Vision Fund investment. The only reason there are so many WeWorks is because they were given so much money that they didn't know what to do with it. And look what happened to that investment.

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#119
post #40
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conflict-of-interest is a human-invented notion that is rooted in the idea that the world is black and white, and it must be one or the other. That isn't the nature of how the rest of the universe operates. All that is needed is a weighting factor between the two loss functions (in this case, obligations) to deal with cases like this, and to make the policy (in this case, term sheet) continuous and differentiable as…

> Conflict-of-interest is a human-invented notion That doesn't seem like a particular relevant critique here; it's not like naturally occurring corporate boards or some universal law of fiduciary duty are things we've observed outside of humanity. Why shouldn't human-invented heuristics apply to situations that as far as we know only occur in human interactions?

I'll admit, that does sound like the description of an onion'ey / college humor-ey thing I'd like to see. I makes me think of the Clubbing in the Wild video [1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8zwIphm5r4

Re: WeWork sues SoftBank over canceled $3B tender offer

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some landlords have mortgages to pay. How many WW properties are still owned by Adam Neumann?

This whole thing frustrates me so much. It's like people are just spouting off random opinions not substantiated by any data or real-world experience...at all. I just looked it up. WeWork has 848 locations globally. These locations aren't in houses...they're in gargantuan, tall office buildings, worth tens/hundreds of millions of dollars each. If Adam Neumann is a billionaire, AND if he has most of his wealth in comm…

I think you’re missing the point. There was a huge controversy a while back where it appeared as though Adam Neumann was fleecing the company - personally trademarking the “We” brand and selling it back to the company, buying up certain office space and leasing it back to WeWork.
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