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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

461–470 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#461

One thing I've had trouble reconciling is the fact that the CDC estimates 24k-63k deaths from the flu this flu season[0] We just passed 10k from covid-19. Only last week a "low" estimation of covid deaths this year was 200k. So it seems the expectation is there will be many, many more, and we're just at the start of all this. On the other hand, it also seems this week like the infamous curve is beginning to flatten,…

The thing missing here is that you're looking at deaths without looking at number of cases of each. The flu causes the number of deaths it does because it infects tens of millions of people a year[0]. The death rate is an order of magnitude lower than with COVID-19 across every single age bracket. [2] So when people say things like: > "I'm not worried about getting this illness" They are likely not considering that e…

> They are likely not considering that even the younger are taking as much as a 1% risk of their life

I know the numbers are still super fuzzy and it depends on who you ask, but at least according to Wikipedia, the US fatality rate for ages 20-44 is 0.1-0.2%, not near 1% (though certainly at-risk individuals would be higher than the average...)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Progn...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#462

One thing I've had trouble reconciling is the fact that the CDC estimates 24k-63k deaths from the flu this flu season[0] We just passed 10k from covid-19. Only last week a "low" estimation of covid deaths this year was 200k. So it seems the expectation is there will be many, many more, and we're just at the start of all this. On the other hand, it also seems this week like the infamous curve is beginning to flatten,…

One issue to consider is that the COVID wipes out our ability to treat serious flu cases by swamping the hospitals.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your source is a random blogspot.com who claims that there's ambiguity because they consider the term "caused by" to be ambiguous. I stopped reading there.

David Friedman is an economist at Santa Clara University. The argument relates not to climate science itself, but to the methodology on study measuring the consensus of climate scientists. It's pretty easy to follow.

David Friedman is a well known libertarian and sometime anarchocapitalist whose moral and political philosophy is notably at odds with the concepts invoked by those who call for large action to tackle climate change.

The fact that he's smart doesn't change the conflict of outlooks.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#464
I think this is assuming malice where incompetence may be a more likely explanation.

I was in the "it's just a flu" camp through early February, and then changed my mind pretty dramatically a few weeks before the U.S. (or Hacker News, for that matter) consensus shifted. It wasn't that I held an insincere belief beforehand; it's that the data initially supports two possible interpretations, and that as more data becomes available, "it's just a flu" becomes less likely and "this is a serious pandemic that will result in lots of life" becomes more likely.

For me, the critical pieces of information were details about what the Chinese definitions of "mild", "severe", and "critical" cases meant. I'd seen the death rates by age, which had a death rate of under 0.2% for people under 50 and it going up to 6-11% for > 70. I'd also seen case breakdowns where illnesses were described as 80% "mild", 15% "severe", 5% "critical", and 2% "death".

A logical conclusion to draw from that is that for 80% of cases, it really will be just a flu, an additional 15% would be a really sucky flu (pneumonia not requiring hospitalization), and 5% of mostly elderly patients require hospitalization.

The information that changed my mind was the clarification that 80% mild was broken down into 40% mild (cold symptoms) and 40% moderate (walking pneumonia), the 15% of severe cases all required hospitalization, and that hospitalization rates were not that different (factor of 2x, rather than factor of 30x) between young and old people. That and some math about how many hospitalizations that is vs. hospital beds available in the U.S, and the reports coming out of Italy that made it clear that the high death rate was not because of China's air pollution or smoking rates (both of which were reasonable hypotheses with the data available, particularly the increased male mortality and preponderance of smoking among Chinese men).

On a systemic level, it's entirely possible that the decision makers simply have not updated their mental models with this new information. There are a bunch of cognitive biases why they wouldn't: normalcy bias, unwillingness to look at unpleasant facts, and commitment bias (once they've publicly stated that it's just a flu it's hard to walk that back without looking like a fool). There's no need to assume that they're willfully spouting bullshit because they know they won't get caught. It's entirely possible that they're spouting bullshit because they believe it.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#465
post #196

> They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions. Is there any danger for them? PG seems to have very idealistic view of politics. As far as I know, any amount of fact checking in politics don't change political views. Will Fox News lose any viewers over this? Politicians may lose jobs because bad economy, but will they lose votes because they were wrong and ignorant? H. L. Mencken wrote: > No o…

>any amount of fact checking in politics don't change political views. That is what I was thinking. Paul is writing as if credibility stems from reality. When in reality, the reverse its true. Fox news is credible, its viewers believe that, and whatever those credible people say, is reality. As long as people keep tuned in only to Fox News, that reality wont shatter. Their credibility exists because of their reach, i…

Right, but this might change as people they know start dying. It is easy to lie about things happening that don’t directly affect the people being lied to, but if you personally know multiple people killed by the virus, it will be hard to lie about it.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's amusing to be is how anyone can look at the incompetence of governments across the world, and conclude they'd be capable of any kind of organized conspiracy against the general population.

"What's amusing to be is how anyone can look at the incompetence of governments across the world, and conclude they'd be capable of any kind of organized conspiracy against the general population." Tell that to the Jews in Deutchland circa 1931... Tell that to the Kulaks in the Ukraine in 1930 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor , Tell that to the educated classes in China under Mao; https://www.globalsecurity.or…

The listed examples are conspiracies by the dictionary definition - "a group of people acting in harmony to a common, illegal end" - but I don't think they're the same thing the parent poster was referring to. Conspiracy theories generally revolve around some secret action by the government or other large organizations, not open slaughter. A better example might be COINTELPRO.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#467
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life and has the exact same dynamic with the exact same players. No, global warming has a very different dynamic. With a virus, if you do the right thing and protect yourself, you’re more likely to survive. With global warming, if you get a lot of people to emit less CO2, you might just end up making CO2 emissions cheaper for everyone else.

So what should we do?

Carbon taxes, and protectionist trade tariffs against countries who don't adopt carbon taxes.

Make non-compliance painful enough, and the defectors will fall in line.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#468
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central America ( https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/fifth-... ), Syria ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096262981... ), Australia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bus... ), and Alaska https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/sockeye-salmon-and-cli... might beg to differ, among others. It is happening now. It's happening in line with predictions by IPCC. I…

> Very nearly 100% of experts in this field agree it's happening None of these "experts" have a track record of correct predictions that justifies taking their current predictions seriously. Remember we are not talking about the fact that the climate changes: yes, it does, it always has, and it always will (unless at some point in the distant future we learn how to control it accurately). We are talking about the dir…

These days, I consider anyone saying "[the climate] always has [changed], and it always will" as immediately disqualified for having any worthwhile opinion on the climate.

Climate is a serious issue. It's time we stopped entertaining these people.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do we do about all of the doom and gloom climate predictions of the past that failed to materialize[0]? If something has changed about either the science or the media reporting of scientific results, what evidence do lay folk have that this is the case? [0] https://tofspot.blogspot.com/2010/10/goosey-goosey-gander.ht...

How about you look at what they actually predicted? https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m...

That's a useful start. I'll definitely dig into this.

The question still stands as to why, even if the problem lay with journalists/media rather than scientists, is why did they get it so wrong?

Also, if I as lay person am going to be getting my information from sources like NYT and National Geographic instead of IPCC reports directly, have they fixed the problems that led to the erroneous reporting?

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#470
post #447
post #400

I'm a biologist and I have no trouble saying with a straight face that, as of yet, COVID-19's true health impact has been lower than that of a bad year of flu. I don't care about TV commenters- by the metric of # of deaths (not potential number of deaths, or total cost to the medical system, or impact on economy), COVID-19 has been less than a bad year of flu. This isn't to say COVID-19 isn't bad, or doesn't have the…

Simple numbers tell us the deaths so far from covid-19 have been less than an average flu season. But so what? You're not actually suggesting anything so there's nothing to get directly angry about. But since you don't suggest anything, you leave it to people to infer what you really mean, and then there may be good reason to get angry. Are you suggesting that we should have treated covid-19 like the flu -- although…

Hmm, that's a good point. my main point is that we should treat flu more seriously (personally I would prefer legally mandated vaccines with extremely limited exceptions, and more funding into improved vaccines that have a higher effectivity).

My second point is about the response to covid. To me it's unclear (and it won't be clear to the epidemiologists for a few years) whether the reactions we have taken had the effects we predicted. Much of what we're doing now, it's actually unclear what would have happened if we hadn't has social distancing etc, due to the extremely low rate of testing.

Another issue is that large numbers of scientists have dropped their regular work and are working on covid... most of them will not produce useful results (in terms of health care) and instead, their daily work is being forgotten. This will have long-term consequences for scientific productivity without having a large outcome for covid.

I think making predictions on how many people "could have died" when we're doing extremely limited testing isn't helpful.

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