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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

291–300 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#291

Tangential regarding Dr. Drew. I remember watching Loveline on MTV and hearing it a bit on radio when I was younger, and remember thinking how progressive him and Adam Corolla sounded. When I discovered much later that they're still going on podcasts, I've tuned in a couple times over the last decade but usually wind up cringing or disagreeing. I used to think Adam Corolla was mostly funny and made some good points,…

I think that may have more to do with how you evolved than how they did.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you picking on Fox News? CNN, MSNBC, and others were chastising Trump over the China travel ban. They were saying he was creating hysteria over nothing. They were dismissing the virus at that point.

This is the sort of false equivalency that leads to claims that they all lie, so it's okay if Fox egregiously lies. We see this on HN all the time where someone stomps their feet and cries about a news headline that they think doesn't convey just the right slant that they want, ergo it's the same as the guy inventing bullshit conspiracy theories on his blog. No, they weren't "chastising" Trump over the China travel b…

The equivalency being drawn by the parent may be wrong, but mainstream sources outside Fox News absolutely downplayed the seriousness of the virus and helped push the "it's not a big deal" perception that we are all now rowing against.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#293
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life Before making such a confident statement, I would recommend re-reading this particular statement in pg's essay... "These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future t…

Central America ( https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/fifth-... ), Syria ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096262981... ), Australia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bus... ), and Alaska https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/sockeye-salmon-and-cli... might beg to differ, among others. It is happening now. It's happening in line with predictions by IPCC. I…

Your reply, while valid in isolation, isn't a meaningful response to the parent post. There is no single "global warming prediction", there have been thousands. The parent was speaking to those, not whichever one ends up being closest to the truth.

>>consider how it applies to all the people who have made confident predictions over the years regarding global warming.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#294

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

You need to walk away from these people entirely. Get rid of the conspiracy theorists in your life.

The Twitterverse that generates fake news feeds on the controversy generated by stupid opinions. It ascribes value to the clicks and responses intentionally stupid content, shouted loudly, acquire.

When stupid people only talked to other stupid people IRL, the blast radius was limited. When I had a taxi driver spouting conspiracy theories, I didn't then take him with me to a party, and make all my friends listen to what he said.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#295
post #235

I agree that we have huge amount of talking heads around with zero skin in the game and zero consequences when they are wrong, but I disagree covid-19 pandemics changed anything. There are literally dozens of politicians who have been disastrously wrong and gave advice in public which is diametrically opposite to what should have been, and suffered absolutely no consequences. And everybody's reaction to this is as tr…

Totally agree with this. This is something you can clearly see in Trump's approval rating, which just reached the highest levels of his entire tenure [1]. Things are only getting more polarizing, but the really scary thing is that this admin's approval rating climbs the worse things get and it is worrying to see this incentive structure :(

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#296
post #246

In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life and has the exact same dynamic with the exact same players . There is also zero introspection - the people who were wrong about covid-19 are simply denying they said what they said. The truly scary part is they are getting away with it in real time, and changing a large populations' memory of contemporary events. I realize it's hard to remember f…

> In the background global warming is a much greater threat to human life Before making such a confident statement, I would recommend re-reading this particular statement in pg's essay... "These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future t…

Could you share some of these confident predictions regarding global warming?

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#297
"These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said."

Neither of which applies this time.

Here's a project for someone who works in the video space. Start with a Trump speech. As soon as he says something demonstrably false, the image freezes and a loud buzzer sounds. The picture of Trump shrinks and moves to a corner of the screen. Then the correct information appears, possibly including a contradictory clip from Trump. After that, the main video resumes.

Advanced version: do this in real time with machine learning.

Now that would get you hits on Youtube.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#298
post #207

Paul is referring to Fox News: https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?...

Looks like a lot more outlets got it wrong: https://twitter.com/standwithPrager/status/12454088056907694...

What's the timeline of media outlets figuring this out? Fox was downplaying / claiming this was a hoax as late as March 10 [1], whereas other outlets woke up early February (eg, the WaPo headline in your screenshot is from Jan 31).

1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/on-fox-news-s...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#299

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

What's amusing to be is how anyone can look at the incompetence of governments across the world, and conclude they'd be capable of any kind of organized conspiracy against the general population.

I used to think conspiracy theories are unrealistic, the image of a group of people sitting in a dark room conspiring against others just seems ridiculous.

But the older I get, and the more understanding I have over how large organizations are ran, the more I realize that conspiracies actually do happen, but in much more subtle ways.

What actually happens is that over a long periods of time, people collaborate with and promote those who think like them, with similar biases and incentives. Then when a major decision needs to be made, everyone at the table think the same way and agree on the same solution. This works even across organizations, as people's career are made through networks and relationships transcending organizational boundaries.

It is difficult to get a group of people to understand something when all their salaries depends upon them not understanding it.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#300

If you're getting your "news" from CNN/Fox/MSNBC, or "gathering evidence" to promote one the two permitted narratives, that's your problem. This is stuff is low effort "Presidential Level Politics" 24x7. Real news died when reporters stopped having to craft a story so that the Associated Press or United Press International picked it up and made it available to the varied local newspapers of America, both liberal and…

I think the Tory/Labor division that existed in the newspapers, and the way that dynamic changed in the Rupert Murdoch era (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Murdoch#Activities_in_t...) should be studied in light of emerging polarization you're discussing in the US. Creates a self-reinforcing news duopoly that is very persistent and harmful. I suspect that as people look back on the end of Great Britain that we are living through and how it has fallen as a global power it will be interesting to see how media driven internal division was a factor.
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