All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong

From the BBC's mission statement: to act in the public interest, serving all audiences through the provision of impartial, high-quality and distinctive output and services which inform, educate* and entertain.*

From the CBC's mandate: the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, as the national public broadcaster, should provide radio and television services incorporating a wide range of programming that informs, enlightens* and entertains*

From PBS's mission statement: PBS is a membership organization that, in partnership with its member stations, serves the American public with programming and services of the highest quality, using media to educate, inspire, entertain and express a diversity of perspectives. PBS empowers individuals to achieve their potential and strengthen the social, democratic, and cultural health of the U.S.

You'll find that kind of language repeated for most public broadcasters. The corruption of those ideals by private enterprise in the name of profit should not come as a surprise.

Yes, it is completely true, and not in a probabilistic way, either. A model is a mathematical construction which relates observations to predictions. However, there is no epistemic basis by which predictions can be turned into observations; we can never ultimately draw conclusions just based on inferences.

Perhaps you have heard of the idea that "the map is not the territory" [0]. Models can never be exactly descriptions of reality, not without some sort of special rationale and argument from the outside of reality.

In particular, QM models aren't 100% right. Gravity is missing almost entirely from the model (!) and there are some glaring experimental discrepancies, particularly around the vacuum catastrophe [1]. We know that the combination of QM and relativity gives a hybridized model that cannot work at all scales but explains things like the color of gold [2], so we know that there ought to be a single unified model which does work at all scales and has the same explanatory power.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map%E2%80%93territory_relation

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant_problem

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relativistic_quantum_chemistry

Performance is just budgeting. It's opportunity costs (versus expected return on the investment). It's time, materials, risk/scheduling uncertainty, and in many cases, externalities. Interestingly enough, I don't think you need to explain any of this to game designers. They seem to know this. It even appears to be the dogmatic in some circles.

When you are way over budget, every cost needs to go on the table, but your end goal is one of the most important pieces of information. That should go on the wall, in large block letters.

Look at a real budget. If you are deep in the red, it doesn't matter that your car is only 10% of how much you spend a month. What matters is that the car is 25% of your target. That is a ridiculous amount to spend on your car, even though your house is way more. Even if you spend an ungodly amount on dry cleaning or coffee, you're going to have to trade down for a cheaper car. You don't need charts to tell you this. In fact all the charts can do is convince you that nothing needs to be done. They allow you to bargain.

Therefore, I don't give a shit if you think that this function which accounts for "only 5%" of the current run time "is fine". It's 13% of our time budget on some mundane task that doesn't really make us money. It is not fine. You cannot justify 1/8th of our budget for this thing. It's gonna be fixed, and if you have no idea how, you'd better start thinking about it now, because we're gonna come back to it soon and if you don't have a solution then you might find that code is now someone else's responsibility.

But I said something about the 'fruit tree' analogy and I'm a full page of text in without a peep.

So the thing is that when you're thinking about big budgetary changes, it's more manageable to do it one subject matter at a time. Pick a 'ripe' area and glean it for everything it's worth. So I might pitch that I think I can get 30% improvement out of the edit/update code. Can I have this much time to do it? Okay. I might get half of that goal in the first couple weeks. Half of the rest in the next, but at the end of it, the last thing I touch is probably only going to get 3%. But 3% is 10% of what I promised, so I can justify it, and if they aren't complaining about the timeline, I may try to squeeze in some 1-2% things at the end in a way I can pull the plug if it looks too risky.

The important thing to note here is that it will never, ever be as cheap as it is right now to touch that 3% code. Everyone is already thinking about it, everyone knows to keep an eye on it, and new test plans are being developed, documentation and customer training plans are being updated. If I don't touch it now, that target of opportunity might never come again. That 3% plays out everywhere in the code, and I will never be able to get budget to fix any of them (I'll have to sneak them in on a refactor or leave them forever). A dozen of these is not that hard to end up with, and our code is 40% slower than it could be (or worst of all, than a competitor). If that's just the time for a button click, fine. If it's on our slowest operation and things time out, customers with larger data can't function, or they have to buy the absolute most expensive machines instead of slightly better than average? That's not fine. But everyone feels perfectly justified in never doing anything about it.

Next release, I can pitch for 25% in some other functional area, and another, and another. Last time I did this, it took over 20 months before I ran out of functional areas to work on. Every release for 'years' was faster than the previous. At the end, I knew that code better than anyone (an important point I omitted - focusing that intently on one section teaches people a hell of a lot about the code they otherwise would never know). I probably could have swung through for another 10% in every area, but by then I was ready for a new gig.

Regarding rule 2: I stumbled across https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/working-with-us/for-journ... which does a decent job of aggregating expert reactions to questions that pop up in the media.

I have many more issues with current journalism than the author of the blog post, rooted in their "fire & forget" nature of publications (no visible revisions, no corrections, almost all currently accessible articles are too old to be useful or even correct).

I think starting with the global warming example was a poor choice because there are a lot of vested interests who would find something to attack and distort even in a flawless paper.