All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
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All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
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Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#2One feels that, irrespective of the models, the data in the covid-19 case may be unusually bad.
It may be time to add a third error category[1]
I. False positive
II. False negative
III. Deliberately skewed off the map for propaganda reasons.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors#Ty...
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#3Author here: happy to take comments or criticism
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#4Reading the examples, where people jumped on a single mistake to discredit an entire report points to some sad conclusions:
1. Scientific literacy is super low in the general population.
2. Motivated reasoning is rampant. People will believe anything that enables them to do what they wanted to do anyway.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#5The headline really cuts off the points nose.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#6Author here: happy to take comments or criticism
This is a hard problem, mainly because of the problem of motivated reasoning as mentioned by another comment.
You're requiring cooperation from multiple different parties here (scientists, journalists, policy makers, readers, etc.) and any of these parties can warp the results in any number of ways regardless of the cooperation of other parties.
Climate science still hasn't solved this problem despite trying to implement what you're talking about.
It's an age-old problem, if a priori you're looking for something hard enough you're bound to find it.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#7Author here: happy to take comments or criticism
This is a hard problem, mainly because of the problem of motivated reasoning as mentioned by another comment. You're requiring cooperation from multiple different parties here (scientists, journalists, policy makers, readers, etc.) and any of these parties can warp the results in any number of ways regardless of the cooperation of other parties. Climate science still hasn't solved this problem despite trying to imple…
I think, at the least, if journalists get some quotes from other scientists before publishing a piece on a new model it would be a major win.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#8The headline really cuts off the points nose.
Yeah - I was trying to play off the George Box quote but maybe it's too obscure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#9What I've noticed about models, or at least when people are talking about them or trying to prove a point about them, is that people forget models are a simplified version of a specific part of reality, much the same as models of airplanes or something.
No matter how many variables you include, you can never capture the utterly massive and unpredictable amount of variables that exist in reality. But they're not supposed to. They're tools that are supposed to be used to help get an idea about how something might happen, that's marginally better than just guessing, due again to models always being incomplete, despite any amount of best efforts.
Like any tools, using models incorrectly, fucking around with them until you just get what you want to see or using the wrong one for the wrong task can be potentially dangerous, especially when those models are used to guide large decisions with serious consequences and impacts.
Reasoning and common sense need to be used alongside models and if the models don't seem to reflect reality, the problem is with the model and not reality and the model needs to be adjusted or thrown out otherwise continuing to use it will just lead to lousier and lousier decisions.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#10I fail to understand how you can reasonably model an unprecedented event in modern history. We have no data on how people will act under a weeks, even months long lockdown. Will they stay indoors and follow guidelines? Maybe. Will they watch their livelihoods get affected, their mental health deteriorate, or get careless over time and break quarantine? Maybe.
We just don't know because we just don't have the data or heck, even anecdotal evidence from similar events in the past