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Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

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411–420 of 443 posts

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#411
post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

You weren’t around in 2000 or 2008 were you? Your startup is only in “better shape” as long as VCs are willing to keep funding you. VCs are only willing to keep funding you if they have confidence that you will have a profitable exit.

This. I was in a fintech/payments startup that actually survived the initial 2000 tech crash... had found product-maket fit and were closing major customer deals with Banks . But we still substantially cash flow negative (payment networks are great scale economy business but take time to ramp) and in process to raise another ~18 month runway... when sept 11 hit. After which all funders dried up. Years later, that same product we built did become hugely successful, under new ownership. This after the startup was sold in a firesale and all founder/employee equity was wiped out and everyone laid off. Not that unusual a story in startup land, but one were going to see more of this year. Weak business as well as viable ones, all thrown out with the bathwater when a severe economic shock hits.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#412

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Owners of every kind of company want to extract as much value as they can at the lowest possible cost. Even nonprofits want to serve their missions (which are usually distinct from staff welfare) as best they can at a given budget. Greed doesn't seem to have much explanatory power for why startups in particular would be worse.

Owners of every kind of company want to extract as much value as they can at the lowest possible cost Other than sports, what other industry than VC-backed startups lures in talented-but-naive young people, promises them riches, then chews up and spits most of them out, having burned them out? OK maybe music and fashion as well. Meanwhile the owners get richer and richer.

Pretty much any career that has an up or out policy with the promise of riches if you don't get pushed out of which there are plenty. For example, many consulting companies work this way where they will pay you a fraction of your billing rate and have you work a ton of hours in the hope that you will eventually make partner which is where you make the real money.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mobile friendly quote (don't use code formatting for quotes): > In 2001, my co-workers at PayPal and I would often get lunch on Castro Street in Mountain View, Calif. We had our pick of restaurants, starting with obvious categories like Indian, sushi and burgers. There were more options once we settled on a type: North Indian or South Indian, cheaper or fancier, and so on. In contrast to the competitive local restaur…

Starting a restaurant to get rich is dumb. Starting a restaurant because you think your great grandmothers naan is superior is not dumb. Neither is it dumb to start a restaurant because you love feeding people, or a bike shop because you love repairing bicycles, or . As long as you know what you’re getting into, it’s a perfectly honorable way to live your life and there are ways to make it work. EDIT- at least there…

Not necessarily to get rich, but to be around for long enough to even offer your food to enough people that will appreciate the superior taste, nutrition and craft that went into all of your offerings.

If you are having to seek alms just to pay the bills or resort to charity to even sustain yourself as a restaurant, there is something fundamentally wrong with the makeup of what you offer. Simply put, far too many people think they have what it takes to run a restaurant. Their abilities and resourcefulness cannot match their over sized egos.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#414
post #36

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I mean VC's aren't banks giving out small business loans. If you want $500k you go to the bank or find an angel investor, not a VC. The math doesn't work out for them. I think we just need better infrastructure for startups to bootstrap with debt. It's not impossible or unheard of but it's more difficult for fledgling startups to get decent small business loans.

It is impossible to get loans from banks for unproven business models and it always has been. Banks invest in businesses with proven models, revenue histories, collateral and audited financial statements. Its just not in any way comparable to what a venture needs.

While this makes sense, couldn't the founder personally guarentee the loan? If they have a strong income history, maybe collateral such as a home, it should be possible.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#415

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Only two of the FAANG companies get most of their revenue from ads, and all of those companies are weathering the storm rather well (except perhaps Google, but I can’t say for certain). Facebook is struggling to keep up with site demand; more people are using it to communicate while shut in during this period of uncertainty. Apple has enough cash on hand to not sell a single product for months - maybe years - and sti…

Facebooks problem won't be lack of users, it will be lack of advertisers.

While it is true that the marketing budget is often the first to go in terms of spend, FB is also awash in cash ($35B at EOY 2019) to keep them afloat for quite a while.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#416
post #253

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Honestly I think it’s a way for those that owe million to VCs to feel like they have one over us businesses that grew at a healthy pace, have money in the bank, and money in the bank goes up not down every month. At least that is how lifestyle business is slung here. No one in my local business association would scoff at businesses growing at a healthy pace and no debt. Also nice if no VC gives me another round, I do…

Yes. However it can also be pitched as there's no big upside and the salary is so-so but it's a "lifestyle business" even though the hours and other time-off are nothing to write home about.

I'm the CTO of a "lifestyle" business, though we don't really call ourselves that. Salaries here are excellent for our area (MN). Time-off is better than average, and we have free worldwide flights for vacations as a perk. Highly flexible work hours and location - we have some FTE's 100% remote, living in other states; I'm 90% remote. No overtime culture, no death marches. Maybe every 2-3 years we have a couple weeks of a good crunch but it's with buy-in from everyone doing the crunch.

We're lucky to have a customer base that spans many industries. We've lost some chunks of income.. chains of malls closing, restaurants, lobbies, DMV offices, customers getting live sports info.. but it's all temporary and we're well in the black. Instead of worrying if we'll make it we're looking for opportunities and how we can best take advantage of our strong position.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#417
post #267

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Never been to Pittsburgh, but what do you miss, other than the weather? I lived there for 3 years (Mountain View, SoMa, Inner Richmond), and outside of work it's basically a giant cluster of generic burbs and gridlock, with a filthy medium-quality city in the middle, priced 3-4 times the amount of an average burby gridlock (e.g. San Antonio) or a medium-quality city (e.g. Denver then). There's awesome nature but it's…

Interestingly, in addition to the weather, I do miss nature. I think nature is always next door depending on where you are in the Bay area. For example, you can be in Foster City at 5 pm, get on 92W and reach crystal springs water reservoir on Canãda road by 5:10 (you already feel like you're far away from the city); 15 more minutes and you could be on Skyline (this was also one of my favorite "amaze the tourist" rou…

I used to bike up to Skyline on Old La Honda road. I didn't consider it to be really impressive nature... at least not compared to the above mentioned cities. IMHO there are too many people and built-up land there (a general problem in the Bay Area), and whatever hikes/etc. are available are flat and rather mediocre. Marin is not bad but also crowded, flat and gets old fast. Places like Skyline, Saint Helena, Mount Diablo, Half Moon Bay, Pinnacles etc. are really only good for 1-2 visits and then to impress visitors :)

Sierras are amazing, but far away (both Rockies in Denver and Cascades in PNW are much closer and the traffic is not so bad), and the ocean is very cold, you have to be really psyched to surf or do anything like that in the Bay Area.

I mean sure it's better than most places East of the continental divide, but not particularly great. Especially with all the people :)

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#418
post #254

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First, I'm sorry about your troubles. But it's not this way everywhere: there are countries (I'm thinking of Scandinavian) where inequality is perhaps not so bad, and there are countries where governments are making major and genuine efforts to support businesses and people who are at risk of (or who have) lost their jobs due to Covid. There's bad leadership and bad behaviour in many places, but not everywhere all at…

Global population is 7.8B. Scandinavia's population is 25-26M (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark). So your point applies to countries with 0.33% of humanity, which is not representative at all. Maybe add a few tiny countries or city-states and I would be surprised if their aggregative population crosses 2% of the overall global population. So I believe GP's point still stands - humanity has not learned the lesson from…

Our genes don't change and improve that fast

Good points about the numbers

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> FAANG will probably survive in some form because of cash reserves, but there will absolutely be cancelled projects and mass lay-offs. And those will have an effect on the the property and rental markets, on startup funding, and on everyone's cash flow FAANG will lay off their armies of contractors before down sizing FTEs. Google has 125k FTEs but over 300k temps. Will it get to the point where FTEs are laid off? I’…

Are these temps and FTEs even doing the same role? It’s probably going to depend more on the role they are doing than work status.

Depends. There are many many contractors doing corporate tech stuff but there are also vendors making food and they all have the same bright red badge

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get an engineer for a year or two at the cut-rate price and once they've gotten ingrained into your org and code base they'll head off when (if?) the economy recovers. Not very forward-thinking.

There is no guarantee those high salaries will come back quickly or at all. This event might well usher in a more cost-conscious era.

Maybe, but right now it's too early to tell and a move like that, to take advantage of developers during this time, will hurt them nonetheless. I personally have been keeping track of companies I've applied for to see how they treat people during the worst times, right now, and I won't work for a company like that. I'm sure there are other developers who would do the same.
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