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In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

nytimes.com

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Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#11

Post by DeonPenny »

sharken wrote: post #3

Should we also get a “Flu pass 2020”, seeing as the common flu can also be quite deadly? And if the virus mutate into a new variant what then, another pass? For those with chronic diseases and the very old, the next 6-12 months will be very difficult and staying at home while practicing distancing will be a good start. The data seems to support that the rest of the population should be able to go about their ways wit…

Antibodies aren't perfect and are not the same person to person. The antibodies for this should work for any mutation for a very long time. Thats why vaccines for previous year flu or flu mutations still work in some part.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#12

Post by readhn »

The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the loss of immunity for instance.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#13

Post by __blockcipher__ »

readhn wrote: post #12

The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the loss of immunity for instance.

We could re-test for antibodies at regular intervals.

Besides, the small chance of getting infected due to immunity eroding would not be super consequential in the scheme of things.

In general I think people waste too much time with this whole “we don’t know how long immunity lasts” line of thought. Immunity is a robust mechanism that tends to “just work”. Even if mutations mean that what used to be 100% immunity is now only 50%, the effect on net transmission is tremendous.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#14

Post by sharken »

javagram wrote: post #9
sharken wrote: post #3

Should we also get a “Flu pass 2020”, seeing as the common flu can also be quite deadly? And if the virus mutate into a new variant what then, another pass? For those with chronic diseases and the very old, the next 6-12 months will be very difficult and staying at home while practicing distancing will be a good start. The data seems to support that the rest of the population should be able to go about their ways wit…

There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.

Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet?

An example:

In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-...

So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following back in January:

"flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#15

Post by sharken »

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #13
readhn wrote: post #12

The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the loss of immunity for instance.

We could re-test for antibodies at regular intervals. Besides, the small chance of getting infected due to immunity eroding would not be super consequential in the scheme of things. In general I think people waste too much time with this whole “we don’t know how long immunity lasts” line of thought. Immunity is a robust mechanism that tends to “just work”. Even if mutations mean that what used to be 100% immunity is…

I agree that immunity is what will help curb the virus, in Denmark “Herd immunity” is the unofficial strategy.

I do think that a Corona pass would only make sense for certain parts of the population only, e.g. the very old and those with other chronic illnesses.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#16

Post by dredmorbius »

sharken wrote: post #14
javagram wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.

Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and yo…

Keep in mind that there are multiple elements to risk: mortality (deaths), morbidity (general diseased or injured state, also incidence or prevalence), infectiousness, detectability, rate of transmission, long-term health consequences, social & economic impacts.

Regards COVID-19:

The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas...

Comparing with other diseases:

Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

    Virus Death Rate
    Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%*
    SARS: 9.6%
    MERS: 4%
    Swine Flu: 0.02%
The case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#17

Post by DanBC »

sharken wrote: post #14
javagram wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.

Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and yo…

Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19 death?

At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3 days. In some places it's less than 3 days.

That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths in North Carolina.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#18

Post by sharken »

DanBC wrote: post #17
sharken wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and yo…

Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19 death? At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3 days. In some places it's less than 3 days. That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths in North Carolina.

So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#19

Post by detaro »

sharken wrote: post #18
DanBC wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19 death? At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3 days. In some places it's less than 3 days. That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths in North Carolina.

So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.

21 days ago Belgium was at 4 deaths, two doublings away from 33. They were at 30-40 total deaths 16 days ago, now they are at ~150 daily, total doubling every ~4 days.

so going from 30 to a few thousand in 21 days is what is happening. Can NC avoid that? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.

Re: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

#20

Post by sharken »

detaro wrote: post #19
sharken wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.

21 days ago Belgium was at 4 deaths, two doublings away from 33. They were at 30-40 total deaths 16 days ago, now they are at ~150 daily, total doubling every ~4 days. so going from 30 to a few thousand in 21 days is what is happening. Can NC avoid that? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.

It all depends on how well the very old and those with other chronic illnesses will be protected, as they are the ones at risk. The development for NC can be followed at https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid....

This article does a good job of explaining which age groups are susceptible to Corona virus: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-...

To put things into perspective, in the flu season 2017/18, Germany had 25,100 deaths (source: https://thegermanyeye.com/flu-vaccination-penultimate-wave-w...) while they currently have registered 1,584 deaths due to Corona virus. So yes Germany has probably saved some with the current measures, but should we then close down the society each year to combat the common flu as well ?

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