361–370 of 443 posts
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That's far from a sound business model.
I'm not sure I buy this. 80-90% revenue declines across many industries is unprecedented. Especially in cases where poor operations didn't impact the business. Businesses like Hilton or Disney that have operated for 100 years may go bankrupt (not out of business) before this is all over.
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It's known that some businesses won't open until September - that's the current target for sports stadiums, for example. Even after September, there will be a lot of unknowns with massive economic implications. Will cruising recover in 1 year, or in 10 years? How much more friction will there be on international travel, and for how long? What's the risk of a coronavirus resurgence, both globally and locally? How diff…
I hope cruising only recovers with big reforms including: * Cruise firms pay their taxes and aren't allowed to use flags of convenience * They're required to look after and pay their staff properly * They're required to dramatically improve their fuel usage and efficiency * They're required to protect the environment, in particular their mooring and waste disposal practices * They're required to improve their onboard…
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Not OP. I've only visited the Bay Area a few times. Human filth, needles, and just so many people packed into the space. I can't imagine raising a family in that situation. Contrast that with where I am now: I have a very large house on 10+ acres of land on the edge of a lake. Each of my kids has their own room and there are lots of rooms and corners to "get away from each other". We have room for food storage, a hom…
Live in San Francisco for 3 years now. Haven't seen a single needle yet or "human filth". AMA.
Even the townsfolk would complain about some mental hospital closing down forcing mentally ill people to live on the streets and you could see them everywhere.
That said, I didn't have a guide, I'd just walk with friends for an hour or two aimlessly starting from the pier. On the other hand, this is how I'm used to do it and I've been to 20+ countries.
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See also the "Austrian business cycle theory". But the bust, while clearing the economy of a lot of mal-investment, goes on for quite a painful while before the previous level of output/employment/prosperity is matched. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
Ah yes, ABCT. First, assume the market is made up of rational actors. Second, assume that sustained irrational investment choices have been made by the rational actors.
The news just keeps getting worse for SoftBank. "OneWeb, a satellite start-up that had raised $3 billion in venture funding from investors including SoftBank, the Japanese conglomerate, filed for bankruptcy on Friday and plans to sell itself." Can we finally admit that SoftBank's model of so-called VC funding success is really just a colossal failure? The throw-everything-into-it approach of making Unicorns a reality…
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> Maybe I didn't know that a global pandemic was going to shut down the economy. Then you are a fool. The tech economy crashes on 5-7 year cycles. See: Dot bomb. 2008 Financial Crash. Covid-19 in 2020. I can go backwards in time, too. 3D graphics card startup crash. Microprocessor startup crash. AI winter. etc. Too much money flows into the sector and then eventually the VC funds want it back. Roughly on 5-7 year tim…
> crashes on 5-7 year cycles. See: ... 2008 Financial Crash. Covid-19 in 2020. 2020-2008 is 12 years. Your second piece of evidence contradicts your main claim. Try again
You can keep the shell game going infinitely with social crap built by 20-somethings to flog to the FAANG's because you can keep skimming until you hit your 100x.
Now that the unicorns are finally busted, we'll see what the landscape actually looks like.
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Did your investors give some justification for the 2 year time span? For example, did they account for the possibility that many business won't open until September, or a second wave of infection that will hit late fall, followed by say, recession in full swing all of 2021.
I expect they're basing two years on the time a vaccine will take to get to market, and judging that everything that happens prior to then won't help much.
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You can absolutely raise a family in the SFBA on less than $300k of household income. (Source: me). You think everyone with kids in this region of 3.6m people is pulling down that kind of money? There’s plenty of 3BR houses in the east bay for less than a million, which puts your mortgage+property taxes at around $60k, which is totally doable at even half the salary you’re talking about.
> which is totally doable at even half the salary you’re talking about. Half that salary? That's $150k, or after taxes, about ~$8k/mo. or $3k/mo for everything else after your alloted $5k/mo. Yes, people can survive on a lot less, but why in the world would you want to live in the Bay area just to eek by on such a paltry net outcome without nearly enough to set aside for the rainy day that's coming soon. And more imp…