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Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

nytimes.com

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Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#291

Post by staticassertion »

filmgirlcw wrote: post #138
qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

This strikes me as wishful thinking and also incredibly myopic about the realities facing many startups. A startup that recently closed a big round (and the need to close the round wasn’t necessitated by massive debt or existing expenses — so think almost all of the money can be used as future runway) might be in a better short-term position than a business that is relying on net-30 or net-90 payments from clients th…

> Longer term, there is absolutely nothing inherent to being a “startup” that will make it any better at weathering the future than any other type of business.

I think the assumption is that "longer term" is "within your runway" for some set of startups. Early stage startups can have years of runway.

If you're a startup that's recently closed an amount that will carry you through this period I think you're probably in the ideal position. There is an open and obvious question as to how long that may be, but if you have multiple years of runway it feels safe.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#292

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

invertY wrote: post #289
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No-one in this thread seems to note this: try finding some ex-Soviet citizens who lived through 89-96 and ask them some serious questions. If there's one thing the dissolution of the Soviet Union proved, it's that a complete economic and political collapse does not prevent people from disrupting markets. Many Western companies got their first foothold in the region during that time.

CN has already penetrated Western markets. Do you expect the Martian Axioms to help you?

Sorry, I want to give a response, but I just can't figure out what you're trying to communicate here.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#293

Post by cutemonster »

nostrebored wrote: post #283
EthanHeilman wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will also filter out sound business models that actually do work in times of plenty, but don't under the conditions of a pandemic.

That's far from a sound business model.

For example restaurants and cafes and gyms

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#294

Post by xapata »

qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

> thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased operations overnight.

It would be foolish of them to fold instead of getting loans. And it would be foolish of a bank to deny a good business a loan to get through the next couple years. I think much of the moaning about closing up is to encourage low-cost loans. Which is fair, because the government should be subsidizing such loans to lower the bar for a "good" business.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#295

Post by readhn »

qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

>"By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep >running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm >because "zero revenue" is the default state."

No you are not designed to weather this cataclysm. Especially a start up. This is the great cleanse. 2008-2020. We had a good run!

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#296

Post by 0x202020 »

I’ve got an esports side project that was starting to get some interest within the community and generate non-trivial MRR (~4k mo). I have a closed alpha that a few teams in the league were using, and I was talking at some level to basically everyone that could be in the market for the current version of the problem. I was looking into getting a business/sales partner in order to have more success on the business side of getting the other organizations I was in talks with, as I am normally just a lead dev with no business interaction. Then the league, along with everything else, got delayed and quarantines started. Within 3ish days all of the professional teams, academy teams and two other organizations are interested in my “alpha” software. So now my “side project” as of April 1st has ~10x’d its MRR (~40k).

As of now I am getting some business stuff ironed out and only making bug fixes/small updates while I get a better feeling of what type of workload difference the growth is making

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#297

Post by pj_mukh »

sethammons wrote: post #215
axiom92 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I spent many years living in San Ramon, Alameda, Newark, etc. in my youth and have no desire to ever return I understand that this is not center to the point you're making but I am curious! What makes you hate the Bay area? I lived there for ~4 years and recently moved to Pittsburgh. I can't wait to move back. In fact, the mere mention of these places evokes a strong sense of homesickness in me for some reason.

Not OP. I've only visited the Bay Area a few times. Human filth, needles, and just so many people packed into the space. I can't imagine raising a family in that situation. Contrast that with where I am now: I have a very large house on 10+ acres of land on the edge of a lake. Each of my kids has their own room and there are lots of rooms and corners to "get away from each other". We have room for food storage, a hom…

Live in San Francisco for 3 years now. Haven't seen a single needle yet or "human filth". AMA.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#298

Post by [deleted] »

invertY wrote: post #223
qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

You cannot disrupt a market if the market itself ceases to exist. This is basic stuff. A whole load of VC stuff relies upon the larger market to predate, has stupidly vapid IPO targets (which the actual big boys, Central Banks, are now culling off, since their actual liquidity stuff like Reits etc are crashing) and basically 100% worthless business models. "Juicer" or whatever it was? Go look up what Glencore is doin…

[deleted]

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#299

Post by pmart123 »

nostrebored wrote: post #283
EthanHeilman wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will also filter out sound business models that actually do work in times of plenty, but don't under the conditions of a pandemic.

That's far from a sound business model.

I'm not sure I buy this. 80-90% revenue declines across many industries is unprecedented. Especially in cases where poor operations didn't impact the business. Businesses like Hilton or Disney that have operated for 100 years may go bankrupt (not out of business) before this is all over.
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