Yet another novel I will no longer write • Hacker News Board

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#121

Post by Barrin92 » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:13 AM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #47

rumanator wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's pretty much a definition of "elite panick".

The article defines elite panic as a false panic; a "cognitive disorder", caused by elites who look down on the rest of us and think we're all violent hooligans. If people really are trying to kill them, I don't think "panic" is an accurate term and I can't blame them for taking steps to avoid being murdered.

>If people really are trying to kill them, I don't think "panic" is an accurate term and I can't blame them

This is akin to saying "well if some wifes cheat, being a paranoid, jealous husband is perfectly reasonable". It's not that bad things never happen to elites, it's a cognitive disorder because the paranoia is structural, regardless of what actually happens.

It's a disorder because the panic is a function of their social status and their position in society that they know is to a degree unearned (in particular in countries like South Africa or wheverever else the elite is a hereditary class), so in a sense they anticipate the resentment that is rightfully coming their way.

It's like, if you're a habitual liar and thief you also tend to think everyone else is as opportunistic as you are, and sometimes you're right, but that's not why you believe it in the first place.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#122

Post by acdha » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:15 AM UTC

chippy wrote: post #106

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the infected aren't going out of their way and infecting people. A small number of the infected are acting with, at least, reckless disregard for the possibility of infecting others.

There has been one study on the influenza virus that says that people who are asymptomatic are more social than normal. The simple hypotheses is that the virus wants the host to spread as much as possible.

That was a small evo-psych study (38 people) and it wasn’t a study of the flu but rather the vaccine so there are other possibilities. It’s certainly possible but I’d avoid giving it much weight without more data.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#123

Post by SuoDuanDao » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:26 AM UTC

rpiguy wrote: post #20

Barrin92 wrote: post #9

> The survivors/protagonists of the zombie plague are the viewpoint the audience is intended to empathize with, but their response to the shambling horde is as brutal and violent as any plantation owner's reaction to their slaves rising, and it speaks to a peculiarly American cognitive disorder, elite panic. Elite panic is the phenomenon by which rich and/or privileged people imagine that in times of chaos all social…

His observation is wrong. In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Witness Africa, South America, Burma, and the middle Eastern countries in which we have removed the “dictators.” Asia after WW2 was different because the West essentially sponsored state corporate Facism in Japan and Korea until they had 30-50 years to evolve into something resembling a true democracy. Even the term “elite pa…

I think I realised what strikes me as untrue about the 'elite panic' idea - that 'pulling together in emergencies' Stross referred to is typical to temporary emergencies. I don't think the Elite's fear is anywhere near as irrational as he paints it.

There's one unsettling fact I keep thinking about in regards to this topic - before everything went to hell, Rwanda and Afghanistan both had higher literacy rates than was typical for their respective regions. I think Stross's very middle class values are out of touch with the reality of the human condition in a way that both the very rich and the poor aren't.

I say this as a fan of the Laundry files, I think he might be having trouble imagining realistic near-future settings because realistic depictions of the near future don't have a middle class, and that is not something Stross can quite envision.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#124

Post by SuoDuanDao » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:30 AM UTC

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #56

rpiguy wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His observation is wrong. In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Witness Africa, South America, Burma, and the middle Eastern countries in which we have removed the “dictators.” Asia after WW2 was different because the West essentially sponsored state corporate Facism in Japan and Korea until they had 30-50 years to evolve into something resembling a true democracy. Even the term “elite pa…

> In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Such gangs are the basic form of government. They have command structure, and a population base they exploit. Over time, as gang grows, it comes into conflict with other gangs and one eventually emerges as the dominant. Once in command over a big chunk of population, it either splits into many smaller bands, repeating the cycle, or it evolves to be…

I read a book in which the author related the nature of new societies after a breakdown to invasive plants - both being nasty and difficult to deal with, while extracting a lot of resources from a fairly tough environment, but in so doing making those resources bioavailable for more diverse future ecosystems.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#125

Post by AmericanChopper » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:41 AM UTC

the8472 wrote: post #46

rumanator wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's pretty much a definition of "elite panick".

Are reasonable defensive measures a panic?

A lot of things are being described as a panic at the moment, and a lot of it is really just rational risk mitigation behaviour. The factors the influence risk management decisions are all pretty straightforward. You’ve got an assessment on the likelihood of the risk causing an impact, as assessment of the potential magnitude of that impact, a judgement about how much risk you’re willing to accept, and decision about how much resource you’re willing to commit to managing the risk. The way these panic discussions tend to go is first, ignore the fact that different people/organisations have different resources available to commit to risk management, then if you disagree with any of the judgements they make, describe it as a ‘panic’, rather than what it actually is, a rational decision that you might disagree with for some reason.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#126

Post by sershe » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:51 AM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #9

> The survivors/protagonists of the zombie plague are the viewpoint the audience is intended to empathize with, but their response to the shambling horde is as brutal and violent as any plantation owner's reaction to their slaves rising, and it speaks to a peculiarly American cognitive disorder, elite panic. Elite panic is the phenomenon by which rich and/or privileged people imagine that in times of chaos all social…

As someone who grew up outside of the USA, I feel like the problem in America is the diametrically opposite one.

People have too much faith in "normality", rule of law and relative stability and don't realize that stuff like that breaks down and stops working very easily, with even minor disruptions. Power plants are suddenly not supplied with oil, being stopped by a cop can be scarier than being stopped by a robber, and if you confront someone trying to break down a building door in the middle of the day their response is "so what are you going to do? go away before you get in trouble". etc. Or as some guy from Argentina described, if someone steps in front of your car you hit the gas, not the break. Heck, the order broke down in NO after Katrina - and it was a small, short-lived, localized inconvenience by developing world standards.

The "elite panic" is spot on and should not be confined to the elites, especially given the non-existent safety net, and the widespread accessibility of firearms.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#127

Post by axguscbklp » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #102

pjc50 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're accusing a Jewish writer of Holocaust denial, which should be a bannable offence.

And also saying that it was Jewish elites that were killed. I’m sorry, no definition of ‘elite’ includes six million people. Grotesque and offensive on every level.

The vast majority of Jewish people who died in the Holocaust were not elites - however, it is true that German resentment against rich and influential Jewish people in politics, business, the media, and arts played a huge role in leading to the Holocaust. Anti-Jewish sentiment in pre-WW2 Germany was not very different from anti-Jewish sentiment today. Already back then, as still is the case now, antisemites tended to target their ire against Jewish people's disproportionate influence over politics, the economy, media, the arts and so on. The fact that most Jewish people are not rich and influential does not dissuade those types. For many or most antisemites, resentment against rich and influential Jewish people soon swells into a generalized resentment against almost all or all Jewish people. So, for example, the Nazis ended up killing huge numbers of poor Eastern European Jews who could not be described in any way, shape, or form as elites. But this does not mean that the resentment did not originally largely stem from resentment against well-off and influential Jewish people.

In my experience, most antisemites are fairly stupid* and it is hard for them to understand the logic which says "just because a small subset of a certain ethnic/cultural group has disproportionate influence over the society in which they live does not mean that every member of that ethnic/cultural group has disproportionate influence over that society".

This fallacy is sort of like thinking that, because most NBA players are African-American, it means that most or all African-Americans must be really good at basketball. Rather obviously flawed logic.

*Certainly not all, though - the more intelligent ones probably contribute the bulk of antisemitic literature.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#128

Post by axguscbklp » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

rpiguy wrote: post #20

Barrin92 wrote: post #9

> The survivors/protagonists of the zombie plague are the viewpoint the audience is intended to empathize with, but their response to the shambling horde is as brutal and violent as any plantation owner's reaction to their slaves rising, and it speaks to a peculiarly American cognitive disorder, elite panic. Elite panic is the phenomenon by which rich and/or privileged people imagine that in times of chaos all social…

His observation is wrong. In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Witness Africa, South America, Burma, and the middle Eastern countries in which we have removed the “dictators.” Asia after WW2 was different because the West essentially sponsored state corporate Facism in Japan and Korea until they had 30-50 years to evolve into something resembling a true democracy. Even the term “elite pa…

Yeah, I lost a bit of respect for Stross' intelligence when I read that part about elite panic. Stross also doesn't seem to understand that just because a person prepares for the possibility that the masses might become violent doesn't mean that the person necessarily thinks that outcome to be the most likely one - it's just better to be safe than sorry.

>The elite are fine in a disaster and they know it.

Only if the disaster is relatively manageable. History has many examples of elites being killed during political upheaval.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#129

Post by kortilla » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 2:13 AM UTC

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #71

rpiguy wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His observation is wrong. In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Witness Africa, South America, Burma, and the middle Eastern countries in which we have removed the “dictators.” Asia after WW2 was different because the West essentially sponsored state corporate Facism in Japan and Korea until they had 30-50 years to evolve into something resembling a true democracy. Even the term “elite pa…

> Even the term “elite panic” is lie. FYI, there is at least one book written on the subject based on research of real-world disasters https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/books/21book.html https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6444492-a-paradise-built... Cory Doctorow writes about it as well: https://boingboing.net/2013/04/14/elite-panic-why-rich-peopl... https://www.kirkusreviews.com/news-and-features/articles/cor... I…

A widely spread and aged idea doesn’t make it any less wrong.

Re: Yet another novel I will no longer write

#130

Post by Andrew_nenakhov » Sun, Apr 05, 2020, 2:29 AM UTC

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #113

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In all societies in which there is a power vacuum gangs take over. Such gangs are the basic form of government. They have command structure, and a population base they exploit. Over time, as gang grows, it comes into conflict with other gangs and one eventually emerges as the dominant. Once in command over a big chunk of population, it either splits into many smaller bands, repeating the cycle, or it evolves to be…

How does your hypothesis apply to, for example, Mexico? Seems that "eventually" may mean decades, if not longer.

I was actually thinking about centuries, not just decades, referring, mostly, to the early formation of ancient societies. It is not a fast process by any means.

In modern times the process is, of course, can go much faster than in 2000BC, because everyone can see a template of a working system before their eyes in the form of existing countries, so they can just copy-paste the basic law / organizational structure instead of slowly inventing them.