Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 443 posts

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#221

Post by Alex3917 »

filmgirlcw wrote: post #138
qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

This strikes me as wishful thinking and also incredibly myopic about the realities facing many startups. A startup that recently closed a big round (and the need to close the round wasn’t necessitated by massive debt or existing expenses — so think almost all of the money can be used as future runway) might be in a better short-term position than a business that is relying on net-30 or net-90 payments from clients th…

> I’m much more concerned about people who aren’t venture-backed founders right now.

I'm sure most bootstrapped founders are ecstatic that their competitors who have been dumping product at below cost for years are now mostly going out of business. Not seeing much complaining on Indie Hackers.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#222

Post by bagels »

sethammons wrote: post #215
axiom92 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I spent many years living in San Ramon, Alameda, Newark, etc. in my youth and have no desire to ever return I understand that this is not center to the point you're making but I am curious! What makes you hate the Bay area? I lived there for ~4 years and recently moved to Pittsburgh. I can't wait to move back. In fact, the mere mention of these places evokes a strong sense of homesickness in me for some reason.

Not OP. I've only visited the Bay Area a few times. Human filth, needles, and just so many people packed into the space. I can't imagine raising a family in that situation. Contrast that with where I am now: I have a very large house on 10+ acres of land on the edge of a lake. Each of my kids has their own room and there are lots of rooms and corners to "get away from each other". We have room for food storage, a hom…

San Francisco is not the whole bay area, but it is pretty gross.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#223

Post by invertY »

qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

You cannot disrupt a market if the market itself ceases to exist. This is basic stuff.

A whole load of VC stuff relies upon the larger market to predate, has stupidly vapid IPO targets (which the actual big boys, Central Banks, are now culling off, since their actual liquidity stuff like Reits etc are crashing) and basically 100% worthless business models.

"Juicer" or whatever it was?

Go look up what Glencore is doing (20% emerging markets just disappeared) and get back to this thread and start figuring out an exit.

No-one in this thread seems to note this: try finding some ex-Soviet citizens who lived through 89-96 and ask them some serious questions.

~

Seriously: I was told HN was were the semi-smart tech people hung out.

It's like WeWork in here.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#224

Post by tjr225 »

rexreed wrote: post #210
tjr225 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Schadenfreude is an absolute awful response to this. A lot of us are just trying to put food on the table and pay off student loans.

You know the numbers. 90%+ of startups fail. In an economic downturn, it's more like 99%+. If you're trying to put food on your table, startups are probably the wrong place to turn.

Maybe I don't know the numbers. Maybe I only work for a startup because it allowed me some flexibility I wouldn't have had otherwise. Maybe I didn't know that a global pandemic was going to shut down the economy. Maybe I'm fresh out of college and don't know better. Maybe I lost my last job and had to take this job because the other option was to go bankrupt. Who knows?

My point is the same as it was in my gp; your attitude is grim and you're misplacing your negativity onto real people. This is the wrong time to do that. In this situation, there is only one explanation for schadenfreude and that explanation is that the person feeling it is an asshole. I'm glad I've only head the pleasure of speaking to you on the internet.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#225

Post by meritt »

aphextron wrote: post #220
axiom92 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I spent many years living in San Ramon, Alameda, Newark, etc. in my youth and have no desire to ever return I understand that this is not center to the point you're making but I am curious! What makes you hate the Bay area? I lived there for ~4 years and recently moved to Pittsburgh. I can't wait to move back. In fact, the mere mention of these places evokes a strong sense of homesickness in me for some reason.

It all depends what you want in life. Pittsburgh you can afford a beautiful home and support a family on $100k. That's studio apartment survival money in the bay. The portion of us who will ever make it to the big leagues and land that $300k FAANG job that allows you to buy a home and raise a family in the bay is infinitesimal. But if you just want to live that single lifestyle, enjoy the big city, and play the start…

> big leagues and land that $300k FAANG job that allows you to buy a home and raise a family in the bay is infinitesimal.

$300k/yr is nowhere near big leagues to buy a home and raise a family in the Bay area, just fyi. It's more like a comfortable single income where you aren't worried about paying rent or going out to dinner.

You try and raise a family on a mere $300k in SF/SV, you're one layoff or recession away from being completely screwed.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#227

Post by ummonk »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #161
derekdahmer wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employees with high salaries at the larger more stable tech companies are doing most of the Bay Area home buying. Think FAANG, stripe, twitter, slack, etc. These companies can weather economic downturns without laying off people so Bay Area house prices don’t drop much. This was the case in 2000 and 2009. Supply is also dropping as tons of homeowners are refinancing, which balances out any drop in demand. The biggest…

Anyone who thinks FAANG will survive without a contraction is deluding themselves. What happens to the ad market during a depression? How about luxury IT hardware? Entertainment subscriptions? Web services? If there isn't a bounceback in three months or so, the entire tech sector will deflate like a balloon. FAANG will probably survive in some form because of cash reserves, but there will absolutely be cancelled proj…

I've been reached out to by Google recruiters with COVID-19 specific messages. They know this is the time to hire software engineers.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#228

Post by invertY »

invertY wrote: post #223
qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

You cannot disrupt a market if the market itself ceases to exist. This is basic stuff. A whole load of VC stuff relies upon the larger market to predate, has stupidly vapid IPO targets (which the actual big boys, Central Banks, are now culling off, since their actual liquidity stuff like Reits etc are crashing) and basically 100% worthless business models. "Juicer" or whatever it was? Go look up what Glencore is doin…

Look: you just got slammed with ~10 mil unemployment in the USA. Call it 10% of workforce. Most developed countries are now running at 15-30% and it's about to get worse.

Entire industries are pretty much relying on bailouts or they fold (leisure, air (non-freight), cruise, hospitality, restaurants) and the people who own the real estate (or lend it out, Reits / Mortgages) are going to get hit by their tenants / clients being unable to pay.

You're not in the "ramp to land" scenario - you're in "this VC is going to look at the contract and claw back the largest % of capital they can, in the next 4 weeks, due to margin calls and other commitments".

Anyhow: no-one will read this, but it's fair warning to you guys. You're about to get frack'd, hard.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#229

Post by empath75 »

qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

> By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running

Even if you have months of runway, vc’s are going to be very tight about funding for the next two years at least.

Re: Startups are pummeled in the ‘great unwinding’

#230

Post by my_green_book »

qppo wrote: post #54

Startups are in way better shape than traditional small businesses. By our very nature, we need months of runway just to keep running. We're designed to weather this kind of storm because "zero revenue" is the default state. Hearing about Bird cutting 30% of their workforce is awful. But it's nothing compared to the thin-margin Mom & Pop, or medium sized private enterprise that had 1 week of cash on hand and ceased o…

I totally second this comment. Startups often have 2 years of fund till the next round. It's much better than 30 days of private restaurant.
Post reply on HN