[deleted]
Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
51–60 of 75 posts
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#52These graphs give a bit of an indication, but you cannot really trust them. Since there is a shortage on tests, at some point countries might decide to only test people coming into the hospital. Another thing about the deaths is also troubling: In the Netherlands doctors were complaining that deaths with symptoms of Corona were not counted as corona deaths, because they were not tested and found positive (again a pro…
It also needs per capita figures, which is dramatically more important than absolute figures, unless everyone happens to know the population figures of each country by memory. You end up missing critical data points like the per 100k population mortality rates (from Friday morning): New York 12, Louisiana 6.6, New Jersey 6, Michigan 4.2, Washington 3.5, Connecticut 3.1, Massachusetts 2.2, Colorado 1.7, Georgia 1.67,…
In this video John Burn-Murdoch (the creator of the FT charts) discusses why they decided against showing numbers per capita. https://mobile.twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825...
There's also this tweet additionally showing how population size of a country has no relationship to pace of disease spread. https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246185741304...
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#53Why all graphs are cummulative instead of new cases for that day? It's harder to notice how it is growing that way (i.e. more or less new cases than the previous days) and harder to see if it is going exponential, lineal or whatever. And, of course, forces to use log scales because the accumulated number is already high. At least for networking graphs is more meaningful to see difference from the actual from the prev…
Just in case you haven't seen it, I'm a big fan of this [0] chart, which plots new weekly cases against cumulative total, both axes on a log scale. It has a whole video explanation [1] if you're interested in the logic behind it.
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#54These numbers are effectively meaningless. Definition of deaths varies widely, testing policy varies widely, no statistical extrapolation is being done in an attempt to avoid undermining public health policies that might be based on total fantasy.
In outbreak areas, total morbidity increases by multiples to magnitudes during the peak (despite enormous, historic measures of containment). Areas with processions of army trucks full of bodies, or the defense department bringing in refrigeration trucks. "But what about the co-morbidity?". People don't die "of" COVID-19. They have heart failure, kidney failure, or other triggers of death because COVID-19 pushes thei…
Way to have an argument with things I didn't assert.
Categorically, in many countries (UK, Italy), the figures released represent people who tested positive for covid 19 before or after death. Those figures, without any question, do not offer an opinion on how, if at all, it had any effect on the death. Further to that in the UK official death (released monthly) stats only count mentions of covid19 on a report. It doesn't indicate anything
In some countries, the only demographic where you are guaranteed to be tested is if you die, and in a hospital.
Are those facts with which you have an issue?
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
In outbreak areas, total morbidity increases by multiples to magnitudes during the peak (despite enormous, historic measures of containment). Areas with processions of army trucks full of bodies, or the defense department bringing in refrigeration trucks. "But what about the co-morbidity?". People don't die "of" COVID-19. They have heart failure, kidney failure, or other triggers of death because COVID-19 pushes thei…
Way to have an argument with things I didn't assert. Categorically, in many countries (UK, Italy), the figures released represent people who tested positive for covid 19 before or after death. Those figures, without any question, do not offer an opinion on how, if at all, it had any effect on the death. Further to that in the UK official death (released monthly) stats only count mentions of covid19 on a report. It do…
[deleted]
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#56Why all graphs are cummulative instead of new cases for that day? It's harder to notice how it is growing that way (i.e. more or less new cases than the previous days) and harder to see if it is going exponential, lineal or whatever. And, of course, forces to use log scales because the accumulated number is already high. At least for networking graphs is more meaningful to see difference from the actual from the prev…
Just in case you haven't seen it, I'm a big fan of this [0] chart, which plots new weekly cases against cumulative total, both axes on a log scale. It has a whole video explanation [1] if you're interested in the logic behind it. [0]: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
I'm not too fond of that chart because all you can really see clearly on it is when the increase stops being exponential. It is pretty hard to see the base of the exponential (in most countries the increase in confirmed infections has been slowing down, relatively speaking, but that is incredibly hard to spot from that graph, which makes the situations seem worse than it already is).
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#57If you're still working on it, I'd love to see the second derivative from the data. That's what I'm wondering about most these days: Are we at the inflection point or not?
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#58Why all graphs are cummulative instead of new cases for that day? It's harder to notice how it is growing that way (i.e. more or less new cases than the previous days) and harder to see if it is going exponential, lineal or whatever. And, of course, forces to use log scales because the accumulated number is already high. At least for networking graphs is more meaningful to see difference from the actual from the prev…
The FT switched from cumulative to new. While taking that first derivative has some advantages, I for one was clamouring for the original plots, and am grateful that the author has brought them back. Thanks!
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#59If you're still working on it, I'd love to see the second derivative from the data. That's what I'm wondering about most these days: Are we at the inflection point or not?
The turning point is when the second derivative is zero, which would indeed be easy to spot with a second derivative graph. But it’s also very easy to spot with the first derivative graph (as published by the FT now): It’s when the first derivative hits its maximum.
Re: Show HN: Log-Scale Covid-19 Plots
#60Well done, log scale, rebased to common starting point - the best way of depicting international comparisons so far. Zeit.de has an interactive version of these (in German), which adds a rectangle for "days since numbers last doubled", a good indicator of how severe the situation in a country is. Scroll down past the map to the third graph with international data, click on "Todesfälle" (deaths): https://www.zeit.de/w…
> Well done, log scale, rebased to common starting point - the best way of depicting international comparisons so far. Yeah, its what the Financial Times and many others have been using for quite a while, log graphs with a starting point of the Xth death or Yth case. Its a standard way of presenting this kind of data.
But the FT doesn’t display that graph anymore, only it’s first derivative. I liked the original graph (maybe I am better at deriving than integrating...)