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Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

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Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#81
I feel like this whole thing is a sideshow.

We should "bailout" based on just 2 criteria:

* would the business be viable if it weren't for corona and will it be viable after coronavirus?

* what's in it for us? We want equity, or juicy interest on the loan or you're industry needs to be a big net contributor of tax revenue.

We made a profit on the TARP activities. Let's do that again, then we can cut taxes and expand services. Who doesn't like that idea!

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even know how this is controversial, and yet here we are. You said the M x word, I guess.

I'm just not sure what it means to talk about "the class of people who own capital". It seems to presume a country that's strictly divided between owners and workers, which hasn't been true for decades at this point; most Americans own at least a little capital.

Americans, maybe. Worldwide, unlikely. But even saying that, having a mortgage and owning and having a few shares in your 401k ... you'd really call that owning capital? The depth of degree of difference between that and even the most minor members of a board of corporation is pretty huge.

Not to mention it's very easy for us in the technical class to not even notice that the vast majority of the country isn't like us. Waiters at restaurants, house cleaners, and the typical taxi/Uber driver own 'capital' in only the most pedantic sense of the word.

Honestly, with the wealth gap is wider than it's been since the 19th century, respectfully I think you're wrong.

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#83

I feel like this whole thing is a sideshow. We should "bailout" based on just 2 criteria: * would the business be viable if it weren't for corona and will it be viable after coronavirus? * what's in it for us? We want equity, or juicy interest on the loan or you're industry needs to be a big net contributor of tax revenue. We made a profit on the TARP activities. Let's do that again, then we can cut taxes and expand…

It is precisely because of the predictable government response to corona that many of these firms are viable at all. That is, many know that they can enter into what is essentially a "bad faith" debt obligation because they know a bailout will likley be available.

There hasn't been any real incentive to save or be fiscally responsible since the 90's. Spend as much as possible. Take on as much debt as you can. If things get bad you can either abandon ship and do it all over again or wait for a bailout which is almost ingrained in the system at this point.

In fact the more debt you have the less you have to worry.

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even know how this is controversial, and yet here we are. You said the M x word, I guess.

I'm just not sure what it means to talk about "the class of people who own capital". It seems to presume a country that's strictly divided between owners and workers, which hasn't been true for decades at this point; most Americans own at least a little capital.

The capital that most Americans "own" is managed by a very small class of capital managers at elite financial institutions. The point is, who controls the levers of power, and whose interest are they operating them in? The distinction you're making isn't much more than pedantry.

It should be considered remarkable that Marx's observations need only minor adaptations after one hundred fifty fucking years.

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#85

I feel like this whole thing is a sideshow. We should "bailout" based on just 2 criteria: * would the business be viable if it weren't for corona and will it be viable after coronavirus? * what's in it for us? We want equity, or juicy interest on the loan or you're industry needs to be a big net contributor of tax revenue. We made a profit on the TARP activities. Let's do that again, then we can cut taxes and expand…

I would add

* Is the business important to society as a whole

In my opinion, bailouts aren't about if a company "deserves" to survive, they are about if it's "important to us, as a society" that it survives. If so, we group together and save it (with out taxes).

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just not sure what it means to talk about "the class of people who own capital". It seems to presume a country that's strictly divided between owners and workers, which hasn't been true for decades at this point; most Americans own at least a little capital.

Americans, maybe. Worldwide, unlikely. But even saying that, having a mortgage and owning and having a few shares in your 401k ... you'd really call that owning capital? The depth of degree of difference between that and even the most minor members of a board of corporation is pretty huge. Not to mention it's very easy for us in the technical class to not even notice that the vast majority of the country isn't like u…

I certainly wouldn't dispute that rich people have more power and influence than your average Joe, or that they lead very different lives than him. I just disagree that there's such a thing as a homogenous class of capital owners, who would have or could have "created" the state as a conspiracy to "continue to own and profit from their ownership of capital".

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#87

I feel like this whole thing is a sideshow. We should "bailout" based on just 2 criteria: * would the business be viable if it weren't for corona and will it be viable after coronavirus? * what's in it for us? We want equity, or juicy interest on the loan or you're industry needs to be a big net contributor of tax revenue. We made a profit on the TARP activities. Let's do that again, then we can cut taxes and expand…

It is precisely because of the predictable government response to corona that many of these firms are viable at all. That is, many know that they can enter into what is essentially a "bad faith" debt obligation because they know a bailout will likley be available. There hasn't been any real incentive to save or be fiscally responsible since the 90's. Spend as much as possible. Take on as much debt as you can. If thin…

Quite the moral hazard.

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#88
post #46

Buffett on private equity:[a] > For some years, these purchasers accurately called themselves “leveraged buyout firms.” When that term got a bad name in the early 1990s – remember RJR and Barbarians at the Gate? – these buyers hastily relabeled themselves “private-equity.” The name may have changed but that was all: Equity is dramatically reduced and debt is piled on in virtually all private-equity purchases. Indeed,…

> Saddled with as much debt as possible, the business by design has been put in a position such that it cannot survive even a modest decline in revenue without raising significant additional capital. I agree, but I think it's important to qualify what you mean when you say the "business can't survive". Because this implies that if a company can't meet its debt obligations that it will cease operations. As long as ope…

I'm really curious what your point is, since the willingness of capital markets to extend financing seems like it'd be very related to a company's capital structure and leverage. Like, were the businesses in question not over leveraged, they'd find it much easier to find the capital to continue operations during a downturn.

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#89
post #69
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies get a bailout based on how big the fallout is if they fail (lost jobs, lost value for the economy, etc.) or how much value is expected they'll bring if they're saved. Like investing in Tesla even when they constantly lost money because you expect it to recover and bring you a profit. I am not considering any other interests involved, lobbying, bribes, etc. While important I'm sure the first part is already…

No all these companies in need of a bailout are suits without skin in the game. Elon took a big risk with his own money which means you as shareholder of Tesla are shielded from the classic agency problem. Suits empty the company in good times and when shit hits the fan they put their hands in the air and say "well I did my best".

On the other hand, Elon Musk’s personal finances are so closely tied to the success of TSLA that he has an incentive to stretch the truth and push the limits to pump the stock price up. See ‘offer to go private at $420’ and the delivery numbers reported AH yesterday followed by a huge fade today, and that’s just scratching the surface.

It’s usually not good when the SEC is chastising and/or disciplining the CEO of a company.

I’m not long or short TSLA, just presenting the bear case :) I stick to trading the indices

Re: Private Equity Wants in on the Bailout? Spare Me

#90
post #70

What I learned in school growing up was that if I lose a bunch of money gambling at the casino with my credit card, I don't get a free bailout from the government. But maybe things have changed?

You do get to write-off your gambling losses, though. Not sure why, but there it is: https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/jobs-and-career/can-you...

you can’t really write off your gambling loses, you can just use your loses to offset your winnings
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