"Your revenue plans are no longer valid."
Probably my favorite line in the script :)
How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
21–30 of 80 posts
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
“We've had 10 years of frothiness in venture markets. Many employees under 30 don't even know what a downturn looks like. They're used to high pay, constant calls from recruiters, and venture capital flowing into their companies. Even the companies who flop, no big deal, just go down the street to the next company. I worry that that generation is going to have the most difficulty with these changes. They'll wonder wh…
We've been trying to hire since last year and have really struggled because rates devs have been looking for on the market are well above what we could see them returning value-wise for their experience level (that's just the nature of the market, I get it). When you have people getting £130k for doing React at a fintech company... well, I just hope people are prepared for the market changes that are underway. Honest…
> When you have people getting £130k for doing React at a fintech company...
How much is that as a fraction of the value of an average family home in your location?
If there's a big fall in salaries, there's also going to be a big fall in property values.
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't the point of getting inside the opponents OODA loop to force them to make decisions faster than they are able to sensibly and ergo force wrong decisions. If you get inside your own loop by hurrying your decision making forcing wrong decisions how is that sensible? It also seems obviously untrue that acting on a wrong decision is better than doing nothing. The results of a wrong decision could of course be worse…
>Isn't the point of getting inside the opponents OODA loop to force them to make decisions faster than they are able to sensibly and ergo force wrong decisions. If you get inside your own loop by hurrying your decision making forcing wrong decisions how is that sensible? Nope. The point is if I am inside their OODA loop, I can make decisions and react quicker than the adversary. Now they are reacting to my decisions…
> Nope. The point is if I am inside their OODA loop, I can make decisions and react quicker than the adversary. Now they are reacting to my decisions and I have the advantage.
Yes you'll have the advantage because they'll be making bad decisions as the situation will have changed by the time they've decided to act on older information. It's not sufficient to simply act faster you have to be making good decisions as well.
> The keyword there is "could be". That's what makes leadership hard. You have to know when is enough information to make a decision, and when you need to wait. Or if you made the wrong decision, what can you do now?
Yes exactly so acting isn't axiomatically the thing to do. Although making a great folly seems like a great way to get lionized in military history. :D
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Isn't the point of getting inside the opponents OODA loop to force them to make decisions faster than they are able to sensibly and ergo force wrong decisions. If you get inside your own loop by hurrying your decision making forcing wrong decisions how is that sensible? Nope. The point is if I am inside their OODA loop, I can make decisions and react quicker than the adversary. Now they are reacting to my decisions…
> Nope. The point is if I am inside their OODA loop, I can make decisions and react quicker than the adversary. Now they are reacting to my decisions and I have the advantage. Yes you'll have the advantage because they'll be making bad decisions as the situation will have changed by the time they've decided to act on older information. It's not sufficient to simply act faster you have to be making good decisions as w…
> Yes exactly so acting isn't axiomatically the thing to do. Although making a great folly seems like a great way to get lionized in military history. :D
Usually when battles are studied in military history, they try to look at it based on what the leader knew then versus what we know now. Hindsight is always 20/20. There are examples of famous battles where even studied now, military strategists say that the losing commander did the right thing, based on the information available.
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#25We've had 10 years of frothiness in venture markets. Many employees under 30 don't even know what a downturn looks like. They're used to high pay, constant calls from recruiters, and venture capital flowing into their companies. Even the companies who flop, no big deal, just go down the street to the next company. I worry that that generation is going to have the most difficulty with these changes. They'll wonder why…
"...watching friends who want from an IPO party to crying and packing up their car back to Iowa within 6-months." LOL
"I really wonder whether everyone is prepared for what it means to live in scarcity instead of abundance."
Everyone? Not a chance. You and I who have previously experienced and survived the closest to it? Maybe.
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Nope. The point is if I am inside their OODA loop, I can make decisions and react quicker than the adversary. Now they are reacting to my decisions and I have the advantage. Yes you'll have the advantage because they'll be making bad decisions as the situation will have changed by the time they've decided to act on older information. It's not sufficient to simply act faster you have to be making good decisions as w…
> Yes exactly so acting isn't axiomatically the thing to do. Although making a great folly seems like a great way to get lionized in military history. :D Usually when battles are studied in military history, they try to look at it based on what the leader knew then versus what we know now. Hindsight is always 20/20. There are examples of famous battles where even studied now, military strategists say that the losing…
For sure you can make good decisions based on the info available and still lose. You can also make bad decisions and still win. Sometimes decisions that seem vital are totally pointless etc. etc. etc.
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
We've been trying to hire since last year and have really struggled because rates devs have been looking for on the market are well above what we could see them returning value-wise for their experience level (that's just the nature of the market, I get it). When you have people getting £130k for doing React at a fintech company... well, I just hope people are prepared for the market changes that are underway. Honest…
> When you have people getting £130k for doing React at a fintech company... How much is that as a fraction of the value of an average family home in your location? If there's a big fall in salaries, there's also going to be a big fall in property values.
“If there's a big fall in salaries, there's also going to be a big fall in property values.“
I don’t think so. Rents will go up and housing ownership will be concentrated even more on wealthy people and big companies.
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
“We've had 10 years of frothiness in venture markets. Many employees under 30 don't even know what a downturn looks like. They're used to high pay, constant calls from recruiters, and venture capital flowing into their companies. Even the companies who flop, no big deal, just go down the street to the next company. I worry that that generation is going to have the most difficulty with these changes. They'll wonder wh…
We've been trying to hire since last year and have really struggled because rates devs have been looking for on the market are well above what we could see them returning value-wise for their experience level (that's just the nature of the market, I get it). When you have people getting £130k for doing React at a fintech company... well, I just hope people are prepared for the market changes that are underway. Honest…
£130k for a react job (or any software engineer job) in the UK? Where?
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#29"Your revenue plans are no longer valid." Probably my favorite line in the script :)
If they were in the first place, that is!
Re: How to Keep Your Company Alive – Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
#30We've had 10 years of frothiness in venture markets. Many employees under 30 don't even know what a downturn looks like. They're used to high pay, constant calls from recruiters, and venture capital flowing into their companies. Even the companies who flop, no big deal, just go down the street to the next company. I worry that that generation is going to have the most difficulty with these changes. They'll wonder why…
It's an artificial scarcity, though. We have the most productive technologies ever - we are just not very good to put a better part of them flow towards common good. The amount of senseless applications and waste is staggering.
Good points. Plus the demand for tech is higher than ever due to the productivity advantage. There are pockets of that common-good advantage being demonstrated here and there, so maybe that can be patternized and better demonstrated to the whole. I'm sure there are immediately applicable ways to redirect a lot of the waste.