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Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

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Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#11

Is anyplace in the Bay Area sharing stats by zipcode? For example, San Diego has zipcode breakdown here: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs...

That would be so useful to identify hotspots within counties. Also information about new cases such as if they are working from home or are considered "essential workers". How are transmissions occurring despite all the stay at home efforts? That would help us all tighten up our collective defenses. Hopefully the governments are doing at least some rudimentary "contact tracing" efforts and we're just not getting to see the data.

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#12

Is anyplace in the Bay Area sharing stats by zipcode? For example, San Diego has zipcode breakdown here: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs...

Skimming the health department web sites of various counties, it doesn't look like it. Most of them just provide the basic cases and deaths numbers. Whoever compiled this at the Stanford Open Data site (https://opendata.stanforddaily.com/#/datasets/covid19_bayare...) might be doing so manually.

SF County - https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp

San Mateo County - https://www.smchealth.org/coronavirus

Alameda County excluding Berkeley - http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx

Berkeley - https://www.cityofberkeley.info/coronavirus/

Santa Clara County - https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...

Marin County has an (ominously named) dashboard - https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/surveillance

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#13
post #10

Where is the most important metric? Daily tested vs tested positive stats.

This is not released by most counties, unfortunately.

There are some limited stats to the very far right side of the "SF Bay Area Actuals" sheet.

Anecdotally, Bay Area is seeing <10% positivity rates

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#14
post #13
post #10

Where is the most important metric? Daily tested vs tested positive stats.

This is not released by most counties, unfortunately. There are some limited stats to the very far right side of the "SF Bay Area Actuals" sheet. Anecdotally, Bay Area is seeing <10% positivity rates

Another important data point to assess testing is Case Fatality Rate (CFR). This is about 2.5% in the SF Bay Area.

In other places with higher testing, such as Australia, the CFR is 0.6% or less. This implies that the true number of cases is 4-5 times higher... probably a lot more.

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#15
post #10

Where is the most important metric? Daily tested vs tested positive stats.

I don't believe this is a reliable metric.

Who gets tested is a moving target. Stanford a short time ago did a free-for-all testing binge in order to collect data, but finished that and is now restricting tests to people requiring specific risk factors to give a test.

The first time I tried to get a test from another provider I just wasn't able, they didn't know of anywhere that would test me outside of hospitalization-type symptoms.

So testing is uneven and not very available, any stats need to include some metric for the criteria to get tests in the first place.

In other words, there is likely an enormous population with no symptoms or mild symptoms who couldn't get tested if they tried.

After two video appointments with separate providers I was able to get tested yesterday and the result came back negative about 22 hours later. It took me about 8 hours of effort and time to get that done, a luxury many people do not have.

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#16
California unfortunately has a huge backlog of pending test results. The cause seems to be the private labs (Quest in particular) accepted test samples and build up a huge backlog of the earlier manually processed test samples. Other labs would push back if their queue got too long. The newer samples are run on the Roche high speed machines.

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#17
post #14
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not released by most counties, unfortunately. There are some limited stats to the very far right side of the "SF Bay Area Actuals" sheet. Anecdotally, Bay Area is seeing <10% positivity rates

Another important data point to assess testing is Case Fatality Rate (CFR). This is about 2.5% in the SF Bay Area. In other places with higher testing, such as Australia, the CFR is 0.6% or less. This implies that the true number of cases is 4-5 times higher... probably a lot more.

It seems like this disease is so successful because of a significant symptom-free-but-contageous period followed by a small percentage of very serious symptoms.

That's what a pandemic needs. If it is very deadly very quickly it kills its transmission vectors before they can transmit. If it is entirely symptom free, it is very evolutionarily successful, but no one cares because there aren't any negative effects.

There is an "optimum" of disease characteristics for maximum damage and we seem to be experiencing one.

The bottom line is that it seems to be very difficult to prevent a majority of the world population from getting this disease and the result is going to be a global fatality rate of somewhere in the neighborhood of 1%.

Re: Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts

#19
post #2

I developed this for myself but data junkies trying to get a feel for what is happening with the coronavirus spread across the San Francisco Bay Area will appreciate it. I am updating it regularly.

Where are you getting the raw data? I'm extracting it from the New York Times dataset for my own graphing. They have the data for all counties in the US. I've been meaning to automate the graphing but for now doing it manually.

I wish you had the new cases per day graphed for all the bay area counties because that is what I monitor.

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