Sorry, I am going to be the insensitive sleazeball here. The point of staying at home is not that if you get this disease you are going to die. The issue is that if we ALL get it then a larger proportion of people are going to die because we don't have enough hospitals. We had to choose some people as being important enough that they are allowed to be out and about and use some of that valuable limited healthcare res…
You can't have 100,000-200,000 deaths in a country of 327 million people if it infects 80% and has a mortality rate of 1-2% if you have medical intervention (which is their best guess).
Without intervention I assume it kills the up to 20% (probably more like 10% as we're still not clear on asymptomatic infections) who require hospitalisation.
For the US that's 2.6-5.2 million dead to reach herd immunity with a shallow peak, or something like 25-50 million if its not flattened and the health service get overwhelmed.
By saying only 100,000-200,000 will die, the strategy must ultimately be lockdown to stop spread, then release the lockdown and contain the infections using test, trace, quarantine like S.Korea, China and Japan. Or lockdown until a vaccine is ready in 18 months, which I can't see happening.