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When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

theatlantic.com

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Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#51

Post by narag »

capableweb wrote: post #32
ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

I live in Spain. We've been in full quarantine at home for about two weeks today. The cases are still raising, and so are the deaths. I think the two week mark is the bare minimum, ideally you would have two weeks for symptoms to surface, then additional time until you're healthy and then two weeks more. So one month and a bit more. Which, seems to be the way we're going, as the quarantine here is seemingly continuin…

Today is the first day in which confirmed cases have grown less than the previous day (6 vs 8 thousands) if we can trust the official numbers.

Seven or eight days after first symptoms infected people either get much worse or not, then some die in the few next days.

So we could see the same death rate of 800, or even a little worse, for the next week or two, that would double the current 6,500 toll. Then it would slow down, but I believe it's too optimist to set the limit in two more weeks to end the quarantine. With more masks and tests maybe we could start working selectively.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#52

Post by rimliu »

cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

It is not influenza it is coronavirus. This means it mutates way slower, so vaccinces will work.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#53

Post by adrr »

ffdjjjffjj wrote: post #38
logicchains wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.…

We don’t develop immunity to other coronaviruses such as the common cold, so I don’t think we can assume we will for this one.

Other corona viruses are different. We only get chicken pox once in our lives, but we can be infected with other herpes viruses after chicken pox(infection or vaccine).

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#54

Post by JadeNB »

sfj wrote: post #42
cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

Sounds like an improvement actually. Less people leeching off the system, either through welfare, or by being rich enough to just sit and live off savings. A young person with money would be more likely to start a company rather than just retire. Their productivity would help everyone. People that do survive would be healthier to begin with. There would be more room, and less pollution. More research put into medicin…

> Sounds like an improvement actually. Less people leeching off the system, either through welfare, or by being rich enough to just sit and live off savings.

Any opinion that starts with the equivalent of "I'm OK with the deaths of those people because I don't think that they have full value" (referring to someone as a leech on the system is basically just saying that they are worth less as a part of society than the non-leeches) is not one that I hope to see much endorsed.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#55

Post by JadeNB »

catalogia wrote: post #49
vikramkr wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is giving you the answer to the question. The real world has this thing called uncertainty. There are a lot of different ways things could go, amd if the article said itll be uber in 4 months exactly, that would be total bull. If the only thing people consider "worthy" reporting is reporting that oversimplifies hard questions and pretends there no uncertainty to give simple, pleasing and wrong answers, an…

I didn't need an article to tell me "dunno lol" . I knew I didn't know already.

> I didn't need an article to tell me "dunno lol". I knew I didn't know already.

But I think a lot of people don't know that they don't know. There are lots of problems where the scientific consensus is in, but the will isn't there to implement it—whether due to denial of the science or to fear of the costs. This is a situation where the scientific consensus isn't in; no-one knows for sure—and that's not a state in which the modern person is used to living, or realising they're living.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#56

Post by PappaPatat »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #21

Long before things are completely back to normal, we'll have a "new normal" that allows businesses to reopen under strict anti-virus protocols. We can't do it in North America yet because we don't have enough masks, gloves and other PPE. Example from China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddx_z1Qtn9w&feature=youtu.be

This. There are many possible scenarios how to end the shutdown, not one is back to normal on Monday.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#57

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

erikstarck wrote: post #28
ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

It’s interesting to think about how many other viruses would perish if there were no new hosts for them to live in. Maybe we should start doing this every year as a sort of cleansing of viruses? 3 weeks in February - quarantine weeks. Every year.

It's definitely something we should put a marker on to come back to. Three weeks is a lot, and the full extent of measures here just isn't feasible outside of a pandemic. But if we come back in a year and realize there's been a significant impact on overall disease burden, maybe we should mandate a 2 week block of national holiday for all nonessential businesses.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#58

Post by JadeNB »

PakG1 wrote: post #5
mrfusion wrote: post #2

No one really needs to be near other people. I think just keep it going. A lot of industries really aren’t essential to life. Maybe we should question why we need them. Theme parks, sports, gyms.

Physiologically, no, we don't. Psychologically? I think there will be issues. For your sports example, there is definitely a primal need being fulfilled, otherwise athletic competitions would not have existed in ancient times. It's true that many industries aren't essential to life. That doesn't mean they're not essential to wellbeing.

> Physiologically, no, we don't.

The grandparent mentions gyms as one of these non-essential institutions, and they or their equivalent are something we need even physiologically. The impacts on health of not being able to get out and move regularly, much less to have serious exercise, are going to worsen the already serious problem of obesity.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#59

Post by dirtyid »

When people break not when policy dictates. People get complacent once numbers go down and there seems like containment which looks to be happening in Korean and Hong Kong.

Young adults living in cramped share houses in a city aren't going to stay in for the summer or go celibate for the months decision makers are thinking. At least in dense urban areas, there's too much quality of life disparities for long term behavior change like this to be feasible.

IMO Social distancing is to buy a few precious months max for logistics and medical system to prepare. Pretty soon economic stress exceeds fear of the disease. The financial aid package in most of the countries that can afford it leaves a lot of people behind.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#60

Post by PopeDotNinja »

capableweb wrote: post #43
PopeDotNinja wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm visiting Spain, staying on La Palma in the Canary Islands, and today was Day 16 of quarantine for me. I had to leave the house to return my rental car. It was so nice to get out of the house just for a little while! Here's a pic I took on the way back to the airport. https://photos.app.goo.gl/k1kKJxjuHcdTJe4F6

I feel you, I had pneumonia two weeks before the lockdown, so been one month at home now, as I've been self-isolating. Good thing you managed to get out for a while, be careful of the police who fines people on sight and stay away from others.

The office that rented me the car closed, and I was not able to get in touch with them. I called the US Embassy and they were able to help me arrange for the car's return. They're main tip was to make sure I had a copy of the rental agreement with me.
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