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When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

theatlantic.com

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Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#11

Post by cjcenizal »

I think a worst case scenario is one in which:

- The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu

- Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity)

- And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Medical systems will either be ground down by repeated surges, economies will be ground down by enforced social distancing, or both.

What else would be in the cards?

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#12

Post by CloudYeller »

The words "contact" and "tracing" didn't even appear once in the article. Are people outside of Asia not even considering test'n'trace as a possibility? Privacy concerns aside, it seems like an effective way to save lives without forcing everyone to stay home indefinitely.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#13

Post by ianai »

docdeek wrote: post #4

My wife is already talking about moving out of the city to get a bit of space and it's only been two weeks indoors for us. Anecdotal, of course, I think the desire to be away from others is going to persist a while.

Interesting. I wonder how prevalent and deep such reflections will be upon people after this.

It’s possibly the best thing we could have done for the people who claim to be ok with the standard of pollution and climate change baked into an oil based civilization. Like pulling your hand out of a warm bath of water it’s been soaking in for a few seconds and plunging it back in the same water feels much warmer.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#15

Post by wanda »

mrfusion wrote: post #2

No one really needs to be near other people. I think just keep it going. A lot of industries really aren’t essential to life. Maybe we should question why we need them. Theme parks, sports, gyms.

If that's going to be the prevailing attitude once this pandemic is brought under control, it would seem I picked a doubly bad time to quit programming and become a restaurateur.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#16

Post by srcno »

ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

It would be longer than that. At 14 days, some people would just start exhibiting symptoms. However those can be mild enough to disregard. I believe recovery would still take another week. Then multiply that by the number of people with whom you cohabitate. And that assumes you didn’t go food shopping or collect your mail.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#17

Post by ianai »

CloudYeller wrote: post #12

The words "contact" and "tracing" didn't even appear once in the article. Are people outside of Asia not even considering test'n'trace as a possibility? Privacy concerns aside, it seems like an effective way to save lives without forcing everyone to stay home indefinitely.

Is that the term for tracing and alerting people who were near people who positively test for covid-19? If so, it does seem to be done local to me, but probably not with the same rigorousness.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#18

Post by te_chris »

docdeek wrote: post #4

My wife is already talking about moving out of the city to get a bit of space and it's only been two weeks indoors for us. Anecdotal, of course, I think the desire to be away from others is going to persist a while.

My friends and I in London are already salivating at the prospect of going to the pub, night clubs and music festivals. Each to their own.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#19

Post by alexandercrohde »

cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

This is what happened with Spanish flu, but people lived with it, and each year it got less deadly, and it still persists to this day as Influenza A [1].

Personally I assume if it's more than a 6-month ordeal people would accept the losses rather than fundamentally changing the economy as we know it.

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2749954/

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#20

Post by vikramkr »

thymanl23 wrote: post #7

The crux of the article: "The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19" But then in the next paragraph nonchalantly says "though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all" I'm not sure sure how articles like these get published.

I mean, that makes perfect sense. Itll stop when people are resistant. Are people becoming resistant? We dont know. Its presenting the state of things, and that includes uncertainty
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