Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too • Hacker News Board

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#231

Post by ggm » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 10:45 PM UTC

belenos46 wrote: post #216

ggm wrote: post #137

I expect norovirus and rotovirus D&V will decline but salmonella will rise. Maybe even accidental mushroom poisoning, ptomaine? (Foraging, tinned meat) and bad salami caused an outbreak of life threatening kidney and other problems in South Australia some years back, so people going into cured meats be warned. Alcohol poisoning from home stills is a constant.

I'm not too worried about alcohol poisoning RE: home stills. It's people who don't toss the heads and tails that have a bad time: methanol poisoning sucks, and is the cause of most home distilling dangers (blindness, kidney failure, etc).

This is what I suspect most people will miss. Worldwide I think alcohol poisoning is adulteration of spirits with industrial alcohol but the heads and tails are not just methanol, it can have metal and chemical residues as well.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#232

Post by landryraccoon » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 12:26 PM UTC

o-__-o wrote: post #207

cycomanic wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just about people with symptoms to get tested. It's about people who are known to have had contact with infected to get tested. Also importantly you want to regularly (at least once a week) test health workers and others who are in contact with vulnerable people. And finally, by doing lots of so called sentinel tests (random testing around the country) you can get a much better picture of how the virus sprea…

Hey I agree with you, but I am not a health worker. I think we need to remember what spawned this thread and not move the goalposts for talking points. Even if you are not showing symptoms stay inside so you are not spreading the disease. Getting tested won’t prevent the spread, staying isolated will. Look at China.

Why do you keep saying China instead of countries that have contained the virus like South Korea and Taiwan? Aggressive testing are key aspects of their strategy for containing the virus.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#233

Post by gigo2017 » Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 3:16 AM UTC

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #42

ineedasername wrote: post #28

There could be some selection bias here. It's based on thermometer readings from Kinsa. And the articles states: Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons Many more people may be taking thermometer reading that don't really need to, but are being cautious. That would cause the appearance of a proportional drop in high temp readings compared to prior years whe…

> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t…

Please see their adjustment method here, https://bit.ly/39wW0yC.

It is just a linear interpolation and backward looking. I’m definitely not convinced how this would control for how more healthy people take temperatures more frequent after govt announced social distancing to stop COVID-19.

And their data contradicts CDC, https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

Also very misleading variable labeling. y is CDC ILI activity, % outpatient visits for flu-like symptom, not actual % population that are ill, https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/6/11/ofz455/5610164

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#234

Post by o-__-o » Wed, Apr 08, 2020, 5:20 AM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #232

o-__-o wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey I agree with you, but I am not a health worker. I think we need to remember what spawned this thread and not move the goalposts for talking points. Even if you are not showing symptoms stay inside so you are not spreading the disease. Getting tested won’t prevent the spread, staying isolated will. Look at China.

Why do you keep saying China instead of countries that have contained the virus like South Korea and Taiwan? Aggressive testing are key aspects of their strategy for containing the virus.

Because South Korea govt was allowed to look at citizens credit card transaction data and cell phone location data to enforce quarantine, something US cannot do without creating very unpopular laws.

US can do what China did, heavy handed lock people inside with supplies and test anyone who moves outside of the house. You test positive you either go into mandatory quarantine (hospital) or you get an ankle monitor.

China method works better than SK method when you think about how we got the TSA and how it helps our daily lives