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How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

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Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#81

Post by mikemotherwell »

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #70
mikemotherwell wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's assume healthy people do not need a mask. In fact, let's take it as Gospel, and the statement "Healthy people have no use for a mask" as absolutely true. Given we know there are people with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic, any "Healthy people have no use for a mask" can simultaneously be true, and be practically irrelevant, as any definition of "healthy people" is necessarily impossible to prove. You simply can n…

Then WHY ARE SO MANY EXPERTS TELLING US WHAT I QUOTED? What you say (and others too) makes sense to me and I could well believe it true, but I'm NOT claiming that masks are useless unless you are infected, I'M ASKING IF ANYBODY KNOWS WHY EXPERTS ARE SAYING OTHERWISE (or whether I just heard an unluckily skewed sample) Plus, I also asked for a citation to back up the poster's position, not common-sense arguments (whic…

Masks may be 100% irrelevant for healthy people, but we have asymptomatic people. There is no way to ascertain who is healthy, ergo "healthy people don't need masks" is practically redundant. What am I missing?

Oh, and you want citations, sorry, my bad:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HLrm0pqBN_5bdyysOeoOBX4p... - 30 some citations on masks.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#82

Post by j7ake »

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #70
mikemotherwell wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's assume healthy people do not need a mask. In fact, let's take it as Gospel, and the statement "Healthy people have no use for a mask" as absolutely true. Given we know there are people with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic, any "Healthy people have no use for a mask" can simultaneously be true, and be practically irrelevant, as any definition of "healthy people" is necessarily impossible to prove. You simply can n…

Then WHY ARE SO MANY EXPERTS TELLING US WHAT I QUOTED? What you say (and others too) makes sense to me and I could well believe it true, but I'm NOT claiming that masks are useless unless you are infected, I'M ASKING IF ANYBODY KNOWS WHY EXPERTS ARE SAYING OTHERWISE (or whether I just heard an unluckily skewed sample) Plus, I also asked for a citation to back up the poster's position, not common-sense arguments (whic…

Which experts are saying masks are not effective? From what I read the experts (curiously from countries that did not prepare enough masks for their hospitals) say it is not recommended for the general public to wear a mask. They definitely still recommend nurses, doctors, and sick people to wear one. But they never explicitly say that masks do not reduce transmission. They may have said "there is little evidence to suggest..." which is not the same as masks do not reduce transmission.

The official position for many countries that are containing the virus suggests wearing a mask when out in public. One notable exception is Singapore.

Here is the Korean society of infection FAQ that says wearing a mask can reduce transmission:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ko&tl=en&u=http%3A...

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#83

Post by throwaway_pdp09 »

endorphone wrote: post #58
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read repeatedly (and heard on the radio several times) that wearing a mask if YOU are infected will help protect other people, but if you are not infected then it has no known protective effect ie. is not thought to be any more protective than not wearing one. Do you have any evidence to back up you talk of masks? (And if YOU are infected you should not be out anyway) Edit: I was thinking of non-medical situatio…

"no known protective effect" Right. No one has ever studied contagions among the community at large and the effect of masks. When you hear people say there is no evidence, this is what they are referring. "is not thought to be any more protective than not wearing one" This is taking that claim too far, and is seldom what they're saying. Or rather never what they are saying. Early on there were PDAs that discouraged m…

> that's why medical professionals wear them

Of course we know it works for them, because in your own words "coming into contact with a SARS-CoV-2 carrier was low, whereas it's high for medical professionals"

> We know with overwhelming evidence that masks work

Yes they do, for medical professionals. I'm referring to non-medical situations, and I guess I didn't make that clear. I'm trying to understand why... well, I explained in my first post. I'm not looking for opinions but for actual solid evidence. Which someone (not you) actually provided.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#84

Post by tooltalk »

dirtyid wrote: post #66

South Korea is basically an island, conducted serendipitous did large scale pandemic drill in December, has a compliant population with mandatory civil service and memory of recent authoritarian government, can mobilize techno-authoritarian surveillance. My question is, what is happening in Japan? Except wide spread mask usage, they have systemic undertesting at 1/6 capacity, no social distance measures, nothing shut…

I have no idea where this stereotype comes from, but South Korea is known for militant political movement (eg, labor unions, super right-wingers) and religious fanatics:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-south-korea...

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#85

Post by ritchiea »

jlokier wrote: post #30
blauditore wrote: post #13

Testing more thoroughly would also provide us with a better understanding of the virus' properties, like the distribution of symptoms, severities, and mortality rate. I think one of the main reason for general fear and panic has been the alleged high mortality rate, with numbers up to 5% being mentioned. But there's a strong selection bias in those statistics (people with severe cases get tested more often), so the a…

The trouble is, the mortality rate is highly dependent on the degree to which health services are overwhelmed, because the health services are playing such a critical role in keeping people alive for a few weeks until they get better. To the extent that mortality rate may depend more on transmission rate, health service dynamics and availability of people and equipment than on the disease itself. This is very differe…

Mortality rate has also shown to be highly dependent on comorbidity which varies country to country. Presumably a county where residents have easy, affordable access to health care will be healthier on average and have fewer comorbidity concerns that will lead to death from Covid19. Just speculating but perhaps this is one of the things going on in Germany? Germany has a much lower Covid19 mortality rate than other countries.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#86

Post by throwaway_pdp09 »

j7ake wrote: post #82
throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then WHY ARE SO MANY EXPERTS TELLING US WHAT I QUOTED? What you say (and others too) makes sense to me and I could well believe it true, but I'm NOT claiming that masks are useless unless you are infected, I'M ASKING IF ANYBODY KNOWS WHY EXPERTS ARE SAYING OTHERWISE (or whether I just heard an unluckily skewed sample) Plus, I also asked for a citation to back up the poster's position, not common-sense arguments (whic…

Which experts are saying masks are not effective? From what I read the experts (curiously from countries that did not prepare enough masks for their hospitals) say it is not recommended for the general public to wear a mask. They definitely still recommend nurses, doctors, and sick people to wear one. But they never explicitly say that masks do not reduce transmission. They may have said "there is little evidence to…

Thanks, I've updated my original post.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#87

Post by SiempreViernes »

Zigurd wrote: post #22
m0xte wrote: post #5

So far. I suspect there is a lot of premature celebration when this is contained.

Caution is certainly called for. There will probably be recurring outbreaks. But, the benefits of widespread testing are there for every nation, at any stage of the pandemic, to access if they have the will and competency in leadership to do it.

Widespread testing depends on infrastructure being in place, it's not something that appears simply by willing it.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#88

Post by _trampeltier »

netsharc wrote: post #53
Freestyler_3 wrote: post #8

They took proactive measurements when the rest of the world was still looking at how things would develop. Making tests well before they had their first case. When my country got its first cases they were still saying it isn't that contagious and everything is fine.

It's a bit of luck that the coutry had a private biotech company that makes tests for viruses, and the CEO of said company looked at Wuhan and decided to get samples from China. I suppose, just like every country has a military or people managing their transportation infrastructure, there should be a "pandemic watch". (Well the US had a good one until Trump/John Bolton defunded it)

Europe and the US even had more time, there is no excuse. It was clear from the day one how to or not to act. Europe and the US did not act at all in the beginning until it was to late to check each single case.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#89

Post by kstenerud »

mcsb4 wrote: post #21

Again another article that doesn't even mention the use of masks and hand sanitizer. The cost of the epidemic now goes into the trillions, self-made cotton masks are cheap compared to the economic damage. They can be disinfected in boiling water and if everybody uses them they will help to stop the spreading of the virus. In all the countries mentioned in the article people wear masks when in public, often just again…

If you look at the data here [1] (desktop edition because the mobile edition doesn't have drill down), you can see that all countries (including Asian) are following the same pattern in the "daily increase" graph (click a country on the left to see its data). The only outliers are China and South Korea (flatline), and Japan (flattened curve).

So while masks may have some effect, it hasn't been enough to give different graphs to Asian nations in general.

[1] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#90

Post by robjan »

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #34
csomar wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another one is Hong Kong. They are tightly packed in a small geographic space, have an active border with China (not sure about it now), and a highly trafficked airport.

Hong Kong is legally part of China, not a separate country, and its coronavirus strategy has been overseen by the same top Chinese officials as in mainland China.

That is not true. Hong Kong has its own government. Yes, the government collaborates with China but we have a separate legal system and are treated as a separate country for customs and immigration purposes.
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