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Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

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Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#301

Post by thu2111 »

mushbino wrote: post #70
steveeq1 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can use the same argument for flu deaths, heart disease deaths, diabetes deaths, etc. The numbers that you pay attention to are dependent on what is popular right now.

The difference is the rate of those aren't doubling every three days.

Hmm. This comment got me curious.

Using CDC's FluView app I looked at the 2017/2018 flu season to see what the doubling time was. It's not 3 days indeed. It varied quite significantly during the outbreak, but there were periods where it was doubling approximately every week. Potentially faster I suppose depending on how closely people were looking for it (not that close if I understand correctly for most flus).

Viruses can grow pretty fast.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#302

Post by [deleted] »

dominotw wrote: post #54
Zelphyr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.

> "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. This is possible theoretically . yes? There is no guarantee that you get lucky from flu shot at-least once.

[deleted]

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#303

Post by ceejayoz »

seph-reed wrote: post #244
rsynnott wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, normally, it's hyperbole. But that Texas Lieutenant governor going on about how old people would be happy to lay down their lives for the economy was definitely getting into actual death cult territory.

I enjoy how 2 weeks ago most people had a kill the boomers rhetoric, and now it's my grandma/grandpa. It's (likely) a change for the better, but one I haven't seen pointed out yet.

The "Boomer Remover" stuff was largely gallows humor, not a genuine public policy proposal.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#304

Post by oivey »

thu2111 wrote: post #288
TYPE_FASTER wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

59k deaths out of 54 million infections is a 0.1% fatality rate. While the average fatality rate for COVID19 using global statistics is around 4%, let's use South Korea as an example because they have been testing much more frequently than other countries. The South Korea fatality rate is about 1%, so we'd see 540k fatalities in the US for similar infection rates. Also, initial R0 transmission statistics for COVID19…

If you want to know fatality rates you need a controlled population. South Korea isn't that, its level of testing isn't even much higher than Switzerlands at this point. There are only two known populations in which everyone was forced to be tested and their movement was limited, which thus makes up a controlled study: the Diamond Princess and the town of Vo in Italy. In both cases the fatality rate is much less than…

The Diamond Princess’s population is also small, extremely poorly represents the general population, and happened in a setting unrepresentative of the rest of the world. Passenger age is just about the only factor that would drive the mortality and infection rates up, everything else lowers it. As a model the Diamond Princess should probably be treated more as the floor rather than anything representing the average.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#305

Post by _ph_ »

bistro wrote: post #183
de_watcher wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's so weirdly American: a top-voted post about flu shots. On EU forums literally nobody brings this up somehow.

Because everyone gets the flu shot in EU, or because nobody cares?

Unfortunately (in my eyes), only a part of the population regularly gets flu shots. A bit better ratio in the endangered part of the population, but it would help, if not so many of the low-risk population would get and transmit the flu. Just a few weeks ago, some schools nearby Munich had to close for a few days due to high flu numbers amongst the pupils.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#306

Post by _ph_ »

dominotw wrote: post #110
kittiepryde wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As it's been explained to me, you don't get the flu from the flu shot, but the vaccine forces a reaction from your immune system to prepare it to fight the real thing. The way your body reacts can make you feel sick, but you're not actually sick. And the way you feel is much more mild than what the real thing would do to you.

oh makes sense. I didn't reliase that comment meant "i get sick every time" ( from flu shot). I thought it meant "i get sick every time" regardless of flu shot.

Then you were very unlucky in that you caught a different flu than the strains you were vaccinated against - there are 3-4 strains in a typical shot, but many more can come up during the flu season. Alternativey, you didn't have a real flu but a bad cold, which can be quite nasty in some cases.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#307

Post by brenden2 »

StrangeDoctor wrote: post #240
simonh wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The serious problem with the comment is that it's saying these reports are annoying, however it is not the job of the providers of these reports to provide hard statistics, it's not as if any of them have the option to do that themselves instead. So it's basically just saying, shut up. I don't want to hear your annoying report of actual effects on human beings.

A more charitable reading of the comment would be an annoyance of anecdotes without underlying prevalence data to contextualize the info. It would be all too easy for the media to pick a healthy senior with a mild case and tout “it sucks but it’s not so bad” or find cases of healthy 18yo dying in horrific conditions to fit their overall narrative.

Thanks, that was well put.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#308

Post by downerending »

TomMckenny wrote: post #298
downerending wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Epidemiologists know a lot about epidemics, but they're not necessarily as good at figuring out the total effect of pandemic in the long term (for example, how economic effects could kill large numbers via suicide and general want). It's very important to have people looking at the total picture. Beyond that, even the politics is not falling in predictable lines. There was a report this morning that the mayor of New…

But trends in suicide including economic causes are handled by epidemiology[1] It is great that attention is now being paid to this subject. Although the overall suicide rate has continued to _rise_ in spite of 11 years of a rising DOW, the suicide rate among those approaching retirement has risen significantly in the last decades. From past trends we know this is directly related to social security[2]. I sincerely h…

No doubt, but we need more than just epidemiologists to project how complex changes in the world economy will affect suicide. For example, how can the various interventions possible by the US Fed affect the economic well-being of the poor? Etc. We need all of our experts on this, including the political ones, who have a good sense of what will fly and what won't.

No doubt social security (Social Security?) does affect those of us who are older. I can personally attest, though, that there are a lot of other factors that also come into play (and in my opinion may be more important).

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#309

Post by throw1234651234 »

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

Judging from the comments, explaining the severity of the epidemic is now politically charged. Epidemiologists and the medical field have made it clear we are _under_ reacting. But apparently some politicians want to down play the problem and their obfuscation is echoed in every corner of the web with great zeal and again drowning out reality. It's like the climate change denial phenomenon but at high speed.

An expert tends to weight their needs heavier without being aware of the other problems. Where, if we are optimistic, the politician might be balancing this against the economic, military, climate, geo-political, etc needs.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#310

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

dominotw wrote: post #169
SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well now hang on... The flu shot you get every year in USA and Europe is the vaccine for the most common flu that was seen in Asia and Australia the 6 months previous. And vice versa. It’s a guess. If there are two common flus that went around, they pick one to vaccine for. Sometimes they get it wrong and the shot you get has nothing to do with the flu that ends up being common in your area. It’s very possible to get…

> It’s very possible to get the shot every year and still get sick. haha so I wasn't the only one who interpreted it wrong. comment means "I get sick everytime from flu shot"

Ohh... well, it should be the dead version of the virus, but the whole point is you develop an immune response. Do some people experience that as being sick-actual? I suppose there is some per person variance possible?
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