Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals • Hacker News Board

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#131

Post by faitswulff » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:35 PM UTC

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

Judging from the comments, explaining the severity of the epidemic is now politically charged. Epidemiologists and the medical field have made it clear we are _under_ reacting. But apparently some politicians want to down play the problem and their obfuscation is echoed in every corner of the web with great zeal and again drowning out reality. It's like the climate change denial phenomenon but at high speed.

It's exactly like high speed climate change, from lacking the infrastructure and political will to do anything about it to missing our grace periods to act.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#132

Post by blattimwind » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:35 PM UTC

s_dev wrote: post #61

sg47 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Got my flu shot last year, still ended up with severe flu in February. The flu shot is not completely effective.

Maybe you didn't get the flu. Flu like symptoms are very common in a huge variety of ailments. Vaccinations are very effective protective measures. Just not at protecting against stuff that isn't in their narrow scope.

Vaccinations are very much like a blacklist (or signature-based anti-virus). They are generally highly effective against what's on the list, but they don't interact with stuff that isn't on it. Of course, some vaccines work better than others. Additionally, most vaccinations, and all the common ones, are very safe. So even though e.g. the flu shot is not 100 % effective in preventing the flu², it is practically 100 % safe, which means your expected outcome can only improve by taking it.

² I believe the actual numbers are something like 80 % for the flu: people vaccinated against flu strain X only contract it at 20 % the rate of unvaccinated people, or numbers to that effect

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#133

Post by throwaway5752 » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:35 PM UTC

js2 wrote: post #16

The 2017-2018 flu season also overwhelmed US hospitals: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht... My point isn't that we should take Coronavirus any less seriously this year. Healthcare workers have no vaccine for it. It's on top of the flu. Etc. My point is that we should take the flu more seriously every year. Everyone gets their…

That's a good point, but from a response perspective the only thing they have in common is they are transmissible respiratory diseases.

COVID-19 is 1-2 orders of magnitude more fatal, has a longer convalescence, is more severe in severe cases, multiple orders more infectious, and has no vaccine.

Yeah, get your flu shot, be better prepared, but frankly I think since this is just very early in the crisis people are trying to compare this to previous experience when it is not comparable. Hundreds of thousands of people that might otherwise survive are about to be left to die for lack of capacity to save them. Possibly millions. At this point, it's too late to prevent it. Further, the US administration knew about it in time to take protective measures and did not. Nothing like this has ever happened in any of our lifetimes in the US.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#134

Post by mackey » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

endorphone wrote: post #64

Zelphyr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.

I have usually skipped the flu shot for entirely selfish reasons -- that it's a hassle going to get it, needles are scary, and if I got the flu it's never that big of a deal. And I rationalized it to myself under the pretense that the shot sometimes doesn't work, etc. I'll be more vigilant in getting it in the future.

Not sure if you are in the US and what your insurance situation is, but I got mine at some random CVS when I was passing the time, and I was in and our in less than 10 minutes.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#135

Post by gridlockd » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

TallGuyShort wrote: post #91

Zelphyr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.

People are probably referring to the immune response. The flu shot does trigger an immune response and other side effects, so having a fever, muscle aches, etc. is not made up. I too have a far more severe reaction every time I get a flu shot than I've ever had from actual flu.

> I too have a far more severe reaction every time I get a flu shot than I've ever had from actual flu.

Are you sure you ever had an actual Influenza infection? It's not like a common cold.

Even then, let's say you do get Influenza, there's a solid chance you'll get pneumonia, even as an otherwise healthy person.

Most diseases to vaccinate against have are mild in the majority of cases. You're vaccinating because of the fraction of cases that are severe.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#136

Post by simonh » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

karaterobot wrote: post #42

luckydata wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's kinda hard to get "hard data" in the middle of a shitshow. This comment sounds like someone watching a school shooting live and asking "yeah but what's the % of kids that got shot". Show some humanity dude.

I think that's a bit of an overreaction. The way I read that comment was very similar to your response to it: it's hard to get hard data in the middle of a crisis. The difference is that the commenter was also expressing the very natural, human response of frustration at this fact. A lot of people are feeling that way.

The serious problem with the comment is that it's saying these reports are annoying, however it is not the job of the providers of these reports to provide hard statistics, it's not as if any of them have the option to do that themselves instead. So it's basically just saying, shut up. I don't want to hear your annoying report of actual effects on human beings.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#137

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

uxp wrote: post #96

Zelphyr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.

I've received the flu shot three times in my life. I've been hospitalized for influenza three times in my life. Please tell me more about how I've deceived myself. Just as the MMR vaccine is less about you contracting measles and more about your spreading measles to more vulnerable populations that are unable to get the vaccine, the flu shot is identical in that regard. Sure, it helps you not get sick and/or to lesse…

> I've received the flu shot three times in my life. I've been hospitalized for influenza three times in my life.

> Please tell me more about how I've deceived myself.

Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#138

Post by de_watcher » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #103

de_watcher wrote: post #82

It was easy to see the future: you just look up on the wiki the evolution of numbers of confirmed cases in the EU countries.

Given that the US is now neck and neck with Italy to be the first country to have more cases than China, we have been wildly exceeding any estimates based on EU countries.

Bigger population means more movement and more points of entry so the absolute numbers are proportionally bigger.

Growth percentages looked scary for several days. So probably there were indeed some differences in the ramping up of testing.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#139

Post by dboreham » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

vnchr wrote: post #34

Well, that’s some fear mongering. The article is all anecdotes. Most of the nurses and doctors they talked to are anonymous sources. According to the AHA[1], there are 6,146 hospitals in the US. There are 68,000 confirmed covid-19 cases in the US, and 33,000 of those cases are all in New York—almost 10x more than the next states (4.4k NJ, 3.2k CA)[2]. I don’t know the rate of hospitalization for the infected, but sym…

Sorry, but I'm getting really frustrated reading all sorts of delusional thinking on social media so it's disappointing to see it here too. You've somehow convinced yourself that exponential growth exists only in another universe, not the one you're living in.

Re: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals

#140

Post by gridlockd » Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

Ididntdothis wrote: post #127

TallGuyShort wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are probably referring to the immune response. The flu shot does trigger an immune response and other side effects, so having a fever, muscle aches, etc. is not made up. I too have a far more severe reaction every time I get a flu shot than I've ever had from actual flu.

Same here. I got flu shots twice In my life and both times felt worse than any flu I have had without.

Same question to you: The last time you had "the flu", did you get tested for Influenza? Are you sure it was Influenza and not a common cold, for which there is no vaccine anyway?