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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#51

Post by mtberatwork »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #23

A staggering number, and unprecedented in the modern era. I'm not in the US or an America, but my (retired), Father is and for the sake of the people around him and his family I hope this is the point where the American political system - and Republicans in particular - realise that their ideologies are dead. In the UK we saw an Old-Etonian Tory Prime Minister in the space of a couple of weeks: - Effectively national…

I would like to be optimistic and think we all learn valuable lessons from this but realistically most people will just double-down in their convictions and blame some other externality as to why their own political/economic ideologies didn't pan out.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#52

Post by martinald »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #23

A staggering number, and unprecedented in the modern era. I'm not in the US or an America, but my (retired), Father is and for the sake of the people around him and his family I hope this is the point where the American political system - and Republicans in particular - realise that their ideologies are dead. In the UK we saw an Old-Etonian Tory Prime Minister in the space of a couple of weeks: - Effectively national…

Minor point - Rail industry was privatised by John Major. Thatcher was against or at least indifferent to privatising it.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#53

Post by duxup »

vikramkr wrote: post #31
duxup wrote: post #17

Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…

I'm more cynical - it's very easy to justify losing your job now as driven by external factors while losing your job before as being due to an internal failing. If people get their jobs back within the next few months, I think it could breed a sense of superiority of "I got my job back with the Coronavirus, and you couldn't even get a job in one of the biggest boom markets ever.' there's no basis in reality for looki…

Yeah I do worry that the uncertainty and fear... just leads to more poor views of the poor, etc.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#54

Post by claudeganon »

stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

> This goes to show just how sharp of an impact the coronavirus pandemic has had relative to past recessions. Even the '08 Financial Crisis took MONTHS to unravel.

I think we need to couple the two events a little more closely. The 2008 Financial Crisis accelerated inequality, political instability, asset inflation, and the rise of precarious work to such a degree that the damage of this hit is being greatly compounded.

To my mind, the hole that was the 2008 crisis was papered over and someone just came by and dropped a brick on it.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#55

Post by mcphilip »

hrpnk wrote: post #21
toomuchtodo wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also only the beginning, as lockdowns across the nation aren’t in full swing yet.

Do we know the weekly throughput of processing unemployment requests?

The rate is hard to determine since it’s per state. There have been many reports of online systems going down and phone queues being insanely long:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/business/coronavirus-unem...

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#56

Post by wil421 »

stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places.

People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference.

I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business didn’t suddenly stop.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#57

Post by lotsofpulp »

shripadk wrote: post #45
PaulRobinson wrote: post #23

A staggering number, and unprecedented in the modern era. I'm not in the US or an America, but my (retired), Father is and for the sake of the people around him and his family I hope this is the point where the American political system - and Republicans in particular - realise that their ideologies are dead. In the UK we saw an Old-Etonian Tory Prime Minister in the space of a couple of weeks: - Effectively national…

> And maybe - just maybe - it's time everybody took another look at the UBI debate, again. Doesn't UBI directly result in inflation and cause currency devaluation? If the money that you hold loses its value (because everyone has at the very least the same amount of money as a basic, consistent income) then it is worth nothing in the end. It is as good as having no money in my humble opinion. Money has to be valuable…

You would have to implement it in a way that redistributed wealth, i.e. increase marginal tax rates.

The goal is to make sure everyone is housed, fed, and educated. One option is to just give them housing, food, and education. Another is to give people money and let them choose. Yet another is to loan the money and to put them in debt forever.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#58

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #27
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. The big problem with the great depression was not the size of the crash but the duration of the recovery. Our view of the money supply seems a bit more effective these days and it seems unlikely that the recession that comes out of this situation will last as long.

Like you say, things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. If you think this is all over in anything less than 4-5 years in terms of economic impact, I don't think you've understood what has really just happened and is about to happen.

I think my understanding of the current situation is about as good as any layperson. I have been following closely, I called all the policy changes in my state to within a day or two, etc. I don't think that the evidence on what will happen next is so clear that all right-thinking people will come to the same conclusions, as you imply.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#59

Post by sundaeofshock »

rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

Seriously? There were a number of submissions yesterday to HN discussing the relative merits of sacrificing millions for the sake of the market. Perhaps you missed those?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#60

Post by qntmfred »

skrowl wrote: post #44
est31 wrote: post #11

To make it sure that I understand it correctly: this is not the total number of unemployed people, but the number of people who became unemployed recently and now file the forms? Then that number is gigantic, wow.

The USA is home to ~340 million people (many people here illegally aren't counted). Only about 63.4% (~215M) of them work. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-parti...

Labor force participation rate does not include children, so the 215M number is actually much lower
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