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U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

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Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can always sell their property and rent for a while to weather the storm. Relative to the tenant, at least they have something to sell.

Ah yes, because there are so many people in the market to buy rental properties in a giant economic downturn. Nevermind the reason you are selling is because its impossible to rent out.

I'm sure a buyer can be found at the right price, it's called supply and demand.

We wanted a free market for housing and ended up with EUR 500k studios in Paris. Can't people wrap their minds around the fact that house prices also go down?

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#232
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't turn off and on the economy like a switch. People need to pay rent and mortgages, or loans will not be repaid. If loans don't get repaid, banks fail. If banks fail, we have another financial crisis. The last one took a decade to recover from and there weren't even that many bad mortgages (as a percent of all mortgages). Businesses right now are eating a bunch of costs. That can't last for very long before t…

Sure you can. You stop rent. You stop mortgage interest. You pause mortgage principal. You do that across the board for every rental, contract, and debt obligation in America. In 90 days, it expires, and everything starts back up again. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs...

retail (paused) -> land lord (paused) -> bank (paused) -> everyone else -> retail

Do you see the problem? You forgot to pause "everyone else". You'll have to add millions of special case laws to pause everything. That guy with his gym membership who can't use it? Pause it! ISP subscription? Pause it! Mom's knitting club membership fee? Pause it! ... million pauses later you're done.

It's like having 1 million bolts each with a different size. You'll need a different wrench for each bolt. Why not just standardize on a single screw head? Sure screws aren't exactly bolts but anyone who wants a screw can get it. If you're handing out bolts and wrenches then you're picking winners. This is known as a bailout for special interests by only pausing certain hand picked industries.

Meanwhile, a loan works for anyone who wants one. It still means that the economic machine is empty but at least it keeps running and doesn't need to be restarted from scratch.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how do people who make incomes on collecting on obligations (landlords, pensioners, etc.) buy new things, like food and medicine?

Maybe landlords will need to get a real job. I hear Amazon is hiring warehouse staff.

That joke isn't funny because it's at the expense of the tenants. A broke landlord will prioritize living in his own property instead of renting out.

Also, general hate of landlords only hurts tenants because there are actually quite a lot of very forgiving landlords. My mother owns property and when her tenant couldn't pay she offered the tenant the option to remodel the apartment (she paid for the materials) while the tenant was looking for a new job. Well, 3 months/missed payments later the tenant just disappeared and didn't do any remodeling at all. Needless to say, my mother won't make this mistake twice.

I've met some landlords that are willing to offer special discounts to families instead of just renting the 100m² apartment out to some single tech dude who is guaranteed to pay rent. (in rent controlled markets like Berlin the tech guy always wins)

And those were just the private landlords. Housing association here are municipal and they basically offer you 10+ year leases where you do everything yourself, including the floors and kitchen and in exchange the rents are very low.

Hating landlords and abusing goodwill just makes that goodwill disappear.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depending on the degree to which they are leveraged, they are counting on loan payments to be able to meet the withdrawal demands of their deposit accounts.

Not sure about US, but in EU citizen accounts are insured up to EUR 100k. So it doesn't matter if banks fail.

I feel you don't understand the magnitude of the problem. Yes, your money will be fine but will your insurance claim be processed before you have to pay rent?

A bank is like a multiplayer game company. Once the company shuts down, the servers are gone as well. If you can't access your bank account then you lost access to the money until it will be restored by the government. This is why we have bank runs at all. People cash out so they have a buffer until their claim is processed, not because they won't get their money bank.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#235
post #42

“The court system is just going to get flooded with a million of these disputes between tenants and landlords,” I'm absolutely not a big fan of collectivism, but sometimes, individualism just doesn't work. Sometimes, you have to step in and solve problems collectively. No, it won't be fair, yes it will be one-size-fits-all, no you can't please everyone. Suck it up, buttercup. Whether you like it or not, we're in this…

No, there is a one-size-fits-all solution. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs... Stop interest on all loans for 90 days. Defer principal on all loans by 90 days. In 90 days, payments start up as before (and just end 90 days later). Same thing bubbles for all contracts. Leases and rents are free for 90 days. Contracts switch from net 30 to net 120 terms. Etc. You pause the cycle of debt. It w…

>It allows much more targeted aid at a fraction of the cost.

Targeted aid is a code word for bailout.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#236
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a recipe for bank failures and a financial crisis.

Why? Banks get payments 3 months later. They can also get 0% interest loans from the fed. Why do they fail?

You just said there should be no stimulus package. Why did you suddenly change your mind and say "We can shift the problem to the banks and then give the banks a stimulus package"?

It feels very weird. Why does it matter whether businesses or banks receive the 0% interest loans? It's just a shell game. You didn't solve anything but yet you make your own solution sound better.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easier to stockpile billions of dollars when you have no idea what to do with it. The typical business does not have this luxury. Some tech companies are worth more than some country's GDPs. This advice is analogous to a billionaire telling a minimum wage employee to save more.

> It's easier to stockpile billions of dollars when you have no idea what to do with it. You are missing the point entirely. A company only stockpiles money if it evaluates all other options, including paying dividends to shareholders, and still decides their best course of action is to not spend it. This is not a decision made passively or by forgetting to make a decision.

It's hyperbole.

"their best course of action is to not spend it." is equivalent to "we have no (better) idea what to do with it"

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe landlords will need to get a real job. I hear Amazon is hiring warehouse staff.

That joke isn't funny because it's at the expense of the tenants. A broke landlord will prioritize living in his own property instead of renting out. Also, general hate of landlords only hurts tenants because there are actually quite a lot of very forgiving landlords. My mother owns property and when her tenant couldn't pay she offered the tenant the option to remodel the apartment (she paid for the materials) while…

A broke landlord who lives in his or her own property is also known as a homeowner.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#239
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to play devils advocate. Wouldn’t that be a large dead weight loss if every corporation had six months of operating expenses sitting around in low interest accounts? In total it could be as large as half the worlds GDP?

Don't leave it in low interest account? It's likely millions of $$$, so index fund would be a likely storage for a lot of it

You're probably missing a lot of financial basics if you have to ask this. The reason why we have stock buybacks and dividends is so that the investors can allocate the money any way they'd like. Instead of letting Apple sit on $100 billion and hoping they are smart enough to invest the money wisely you instead pay that excess money out and then you are free to invest this money into more apple shares, an index fund, bonds or even use it yourself. If you want to invest into a holding company that does nothing but own other companies then you can choose a company that specializes into that and that company is definitively not Apple.

Why is it better for the investor to allocate the money than Apple? Well, it is pretty obvious. Apple has a different risk profile. If it keeps money for a rainy day like covid-19 then the value of the assets it owns must not be correlated with the "disaster" that it is supposed to help you against. An index fund under performs during covid-19 so it's an awful choice for a rainy day fund. Meanwhile investors probably don't care about rainy day funds for day to day phone manufacturing. They might be interested in high risk VC investments that lead to a lot of dead companies but a few unicorns. They might be interested in low risk bonds because they are reaching retirement age. That's information that Apple doesn't have and therefore it will never make a good decision on your behalf.

Re: U.S. retailers plan to stop paying rent to offset virus closures

#240
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize that the retail business can be quite difficult and that a monthlong shuttering can and will drive many into bankruptcy. Rent payments without income will put the nail in the coffin for many businesses. I do agree with your sentiment. Paying their workers who are probably struggling significantly at the moment would be ideal. I don't feel that landlords need the $'s as much as those workers.

> a monthlong shuttering can and will drive many into bankruptcy. They should have saved up- a decent emergency fund is three+ months of expenses, or so I'm told. In a better world... Didn't save up? You lose your business. Either it goes under or you sell it at fire-sale prices to somebody who has the assets to keep it afloat until things stabilize (possibly the government). Your workers? Of course, the government w…

I'm really, really confused when I read comments like yours. I mean, what problem are you trying to solve? What goal are you trying to accomplish? Why would you blame the businesses for a problem that the government caused? [0]

Just think about it for a second. The real goal here isn't the eradication of businesses. The idea behind a quarantine is to prevent the spread of a disease. This involves reducing contact with other people and therefore as a side effect businesses that involve a lot of people being in contact have to shut down or at least make their employees work from home. So our goal is clear. We must defeat covid-19 and all sorts of other future diseases.

Now, let us think about what prevents us from deploying an effective quarantine. First of all people need to meet their basic needs like food, drinks and shelter (without it quarantine is impossible). The way we structured our society is that everyone pays for what they need with money. That money is obtained through employment and it is used to make workers perform tasks that ensure we have food, drinks and shelter. For a successful quarantine we need to maintain a working economy before, during and after the quarantine. If we fail to do so then future quarantines may fail. If the economy and businesses collapse because of a disruptive quarantine then we might decide to never have quarantines again in the future. If the economy collapses because of a government intervention, such as a quarantine, then it only makes sense to use a government intervention to prevent the collapse of the economy. We could decide that it's the responsibility of each individual business to weather a government intervention and let them collapse but this would significantly decrease the popularity of quarantines and make them less effective because people will simply break the rules.

Now that we have decided to intervene, what types of intervention are necessary to counteract the effect of quarantines? Well for starters the problem most businesses face is that they are fundamentally working but the quarantine is temporarily preventing them from functioning but they are almost guaranteed to make money in the near future. This can indeed be solved by having an emergency fund but it can also be solved by simply giving the businesses a loan. It is effectively the same principle. Businesses forgo profits to cover emergencies.

Does this type of "bailout" create a moral hazard? Will businesses stop having emergency funds because they can get a 0% interest loan? Fortunately there is no moral hazard. If a business gets the loan it covers the missing 3 months but if it is unprofitable then it will collapse anyway. Any money that wasn't paid back is effectively an unorthodox form of unemployment benefits. Now lets imagine a different type of bailout.

What if we simply let struggling companies let the government pay the wages of their employees? This could be abused by profitable companies that can keep their employees busy but somehow manage to trick the government to cover their expenses. What if we pause rent and mortgages? The banks end up holding the bag. They do have access to cheap loans but putting the banking system at risk will just encourage more bank focused protectionism/bailouts because the bank is now responsible for every collapsed business that didn't repay the loans.

So let me summarize this. The effectiveness of quarantines depends on public acceptance and low disruption. Disruption can be prevented by providing just liquidity to businesses. Bad businesses use the money to pay their workers before they inevitably collapse after the quarantine. Good businesses will keep functioning after the quarantine and pay their loans back but they do not gain unfair benefits compared to companies that have emergency funds.

[0] Yes, Covid-19 will kill a lot of people but it certainly will never kill the _entire_ economy like the every government on the planet is doing right now.

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