191–200 of 234 posts
Here is a reason to believe that the data is biased. If you look at any county in California - you’d see a large drop on the exact date that the statewide shelter in place was ordered. This is obviously before any of the effects of isolation would manifest themselves. The reason is likely due to larger amount of testing done due to the panic, that is not properly accounted for in their algorithm.
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> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t…
That'll teach me to rush to comment when I see something "off" instead of reading the whole thing. I'm tempted to delete a post that isn't useful now, but I should leave it as a minor embarrassing lesson to myself. I wish people would stop upvoting me though... Each one makes me cringe: another person who didn't read very carefully.
>Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests
What historical precedent is Kinsa referring to? There has never before been a pandemic of this magnitude, in a time and place where many people owned internet-connected thermometers.
Perhaps I am being uncharitable, but it seems that they are leaping to conclusions here. I'm sure that they have done their best to account for this, but the claim that "Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t lead to inaccurate predictions" is one I find difficult to take at face value. Ensured?
You said that "there could be some selection bias here." Could. Sorry to cause you to cringe again, but +1.
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What if you're an asymptomatic carrier? The drive-through test sites are pretty well thought out. You're not likely to get the virus from the car in front of you.
the human element will always be a failure mode. Every photo I have seen in my area has shown the testers either reaching into the car or having contact with the patient. So you may be asymptomatic or you may not, but then you possibly end up catching it at the test site but your test was negative so you continue about your routine and start spreading it for real. Not saying the above scenario is a reason not to get…
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I dont understand what millions of millions of test kits will do. I’m not going to get tested because I have no symptoms. If I had symptoms I would stay in lockdown until it got worse. I don’t see rationale for anyone going to get tested just because (and based on some of the photos from drive through testing, a very easy way to contract COVID yourself)
What if you're an asymptomatic carrier? The drive-through test sites are pretty well thought out. You're not likely to get the virus from the car in front of you.
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By the time you feeling symptomatic, our current understanding[0] is that you've been shedding the virus all over the damn place for the past 2-14 days[1], spreading germs everywhere you've been. By the time you feel sick, it's too late . It's spring, are you really going to self-isolate for 14 days just because you sneezed once ? What sounds better, going to get tested, so you can know if it's a sneeze and you can g…
Where am I spreading germs all over the place if I’m isolating myself in my home? Please read my text.. I agree Let’s not double down on failure. Look at what China did, it worked let’s follow them. Practice social distancing until July. There is no other option until our hospitals are under control...
You might be spreading it everywhere right now and you wouldn’t have any symptoms for another two weeks.
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What if you're an asymptomatic carrier? The drive-through test sites are pretty well thought out. You're not likely to get the virus from the car in front of you.
The tests can tell you if you have covid-19. What they can't do, because they have such a high false negative rate, is tell you that you don't have it.
Beats the heck out of everyone hiding under their bed for months.
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Even easier and also reliable, normalize wearing surgical masks. Outside of Asia, wearing a surgical mask before the outbreak might invite some funny looks.
Why? I mean, sounds good if you are sick, but rather you stay home.
There could be some selection bias here. It's based on thermometer readings from Kinsa. And the articles states: Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons Many more people may be taking thermometer reading that don't really need to, but are being cautious. That would cause the appearance of a proportional drop in high temp readings compared to prior years whe…
Exactly what we'd expect. It's a silver lining on this whole mess.
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I don't like embracing Big Brother
You will learn to love him eventually >:)
I recently picked up 1984 again and finally managed to complete it this time. I read the last line with a mixture of relief and a tinge of disappointment. Until the very end, I was hoping for a Hollywood-style turnaround in the political situation.
I've noticed this anecdotally. My son usually goes to preschool (and Sunday school and playdates and museums and parks). He has had an almost constant runny nose for a while... as soon as one virus is fought off, another takes its place. Nothing major, but clearly annoying to him (cheek red due to him wiping his nose, in spite of our efforts to keep his face clean). A few days to a week after soft-quarantine (school…
Have you verified that it's a virus and not actually allergies? Runny nose can be confused for allergies, school might e.g. have mold or dust which your son is reacting badly to.