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Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

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Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#151

Post by cycomanic »

myself248 wrote: post #128
saalweachter wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This current situation had me wondering how hard it would be to coordinate a regular -- maybe not yearly -- global self-isolation for say 2-3 weeks at a time. Aside from the difficulties of getting everyone in the world to agree that the first three weeks of February during a leap year are observed through social distance, it doesn't seem like it would be as bad on a recurring basis as it is during an emergency like…

I've theorized this about sexually transmitted diseases, too. It's even less realistic to imagine compliance, but suppose everyone only had sex with people who were born the same year as them. Any given disease would lose the ability to spread into younger people, and simply fall off the end of the age conveyor-belt.

Or hey, let's try this radical idea to just have protected sex unless we have both been tested.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#152

Post by _ph_ »

closeparen wrote: post #104
zzleeper wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly, as long as there's a large enough region where it has R0 > 1, then when we lift restrictions we'll be back to normal.

Or a species. Viruses aren’t just for humans.

You have to distinguish between viruses in abstract and a concrete disease. Many viral diseases we are fighting with are human only. So if we erradicate it in humanity, it is gone. This is how smallpox went away. We vaccinated enough people to make it go away once and for ever. Measels have no animal host either, as far as I am aware, so we could have a good chance to erradicate it too.

The corona virus sars-cov-2, as well as the first sars virus jumped from animals to humans. There are several animal species which carry variations of the sars virus, but fortunately, they don't make the transition to humans regularly. If we managed to prevent further transmissions of sars-cov-2 between people, there is a good chance, this virus could go away entirely, unless it manages to jump to some common animal.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#153

Post by feanaro »

lalos wrote: post #2

"Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t lead to inaccurate predictions, and so he believes the current decline in illness is a result of social distancing, and not a statistical anomal…

The problem is the sample isn't random.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#154

Post by Swenrekcah »

peter_retief wrote: post #145
rossdavidh wrote: post #89

It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data to long-term users. It seems implausible that there has not been a significant change in the health-consciousness of the typical purchaser in the last month or two, vs. prior to that. I can't tell you what the change would be, but I find it highly implausible t…

There has also been a decrease in traffic accidents and violent crime. This is data from hospital casualty units in South Africa

I’m purely guessing, but maybe the traffic deaths have decreased linearly with traffic, and violent crime in some porportion to gathering size.

That is to say, that it’s due to less activity and not a changed mindset.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#155

Post by _ph_ »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #6

I was thinking if we go all in on this stay-in-place and we get it working around the world, could we eliminate measles? Chicken pox? Any other human-virus disease that relies on human-to-human contact to spread?

In theory yes, but in practical terms probably not, as it is unlikely that we get the whole humanity in a lockdown and of course there are still human-human contacts. This is the reason, it is unlikely that we get rid of sars-cov-2 entirely once the global spread was beyond a certain threashold. But in practical terms one could espect a lot of infectious diseases to be drastically reduced in case numbers.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#156

Post by robocat »

logicallee wrote: post #50
mrfusion wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Removed)

This line: >Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers. ... means that 1 week ago 2,964,898 Americans (0.9%) had Covid-19. Today there are 65,950 recorded cases in the…

Given that US COVID19 fatalities are 1,031 today.

Assuming 0.5% death rate after 3 weeks, then 3 weeks ago there were 200000 infected.

Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore:

The US has 3.2 million infected.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#157

Post by lukevdp »

logicallee wrote: post #50
mrfusion wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Removed)

This line: >Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers. ... means that 1 week ago 2,964,898 Americans (0.9%) had Covid-19. Today there are 65,950 recorded cases in the…

There is probably some selection bias - it’s 4.9% of people using the thermometers, which would skew towards people that are thinking they have a fever.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#158

Post by gowld »

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #42
ineedasername wrote: post #28

There could be some selection bias here. It's based on thermometer readings from Kinsa. And the articles states: Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons Many more people may be taking thermometer reading that don't really need to, but are being cautious. That would cause the appearance of a proportional drop in high temp readings compared to prior years whe…

> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t…

That's wishful thinking. We haven't had a pandemic in recent years.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#159

Post by skocznymroczny »

Robotbeat wrote: post #43

I've noticed this anecdotally. My son usually goes to preschool (and Sunday school and playdates and museums and parks). He has had an almost constant runny nose for a while... as soon as one virus is fought off, another takes its place. Nothing major, but clearly annoying to him (cheek red due to him wiping his nose, in spite of our efforts to keep his face clean). A few days to a week after soft-quarantine (school…

Have you verified that it's a virus and not actually allergies? Runny nose can be confused for allergies, school might e.g. have mold or dust which your son is reacting badly to.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#160

Post by lukevdp »

robocat wrote: post #156
logicallee wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line: >Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers. ... means that 1 week ago 2,964,898 Americans (0.9%) had Covid-19. Today there are 65,950 recorded cases in the…

Given that US COVID19 fatalities are 1,031 today. Assuming 0.5% death rate after 3 weeks, then 3 weeks ago there were 200000 infected. Assuming cases double every 5 days, then multiply that by 2^4, therefore: The US has 3.2 million infected.

How did you come to the .5% death rate after 3 weeks assumption?
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