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Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

qz.com

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Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#141

Post by onion2k »

lukeschlather wrote: post #70
logicallee wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line: >Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers. ... means that 1 week ago 2,964,898 Americans (0.9%) had Covid-19. Today there are 65,950 recorded cases in the…

The error bars on that 4% number are huge, I imagine. Like 4% - 2% or +15%. It's entirely possible you could get 4.9% with zero Covid-19 infections, just from normal variation. Not only possible but I'm sure there's a month in the past decade which had more.

Why would the error range be that high? We'd know about huge spikes like that through hospital data, insurance claims, and the sales of drugs, and there aren't spikes like that. The number of people who are ill is relatively stable year-on-year.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#142

Post by noway421 »

mrfusion wrote: post #49

Influenza only has an R0 of 1.3. I really wonder if we’ve managed to push it below 1.0 world wide. Pretty wild to think about. 1.3 really isn’t that much. What if all the new people who’ve started washing their hands keeps it below 1.0?

If that's the case, few generations from now people won't have immunity to as many common cold viruses as we do. I wonder if that could be detrimental.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#143

Post by himlion »

fyfy18 wrote: post #129
maxerickson wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people, for lots of illnesses, are infectious without really having any symptoms.

Plus most people still go to work when sick. They will just dose up on whatever drugs they have to hide the symptoms and make them feel better, then go to work anyway. Even here in Europe where the government pays sick leave that happens.

And before this pandemic that was generally considered a virtuous habit. I wonder if that will change when this is all over

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#144

Post by s1artibartfast »

zaroth wrote: post #92
sudoaza wrote: post #4

I was hoping for this, lets do social distancing a tradition for every winter

I’m just trying to get my head around this... I wonder if people are just ignorant of the widespread devastation caused by the lockdown, if they feel like people devastated by the lockdown did not “do enough to prepare” and so somehow deserve it, if they somehow believe people will be made whole by trillion dollar handouts, or what? I personally know two family businesses which have laid off all their employees and m…

Whatever happened to moderation. Extremely all or nothing ideology is how we got in this mess in the first place.

If people's take away from this all is to wash their hands,stay home when sick, and cough into their arms, tens of thousands of lives will be saved

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#145

Post by peter_retief »

rossdavidh wrote: post #89

It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data to long-term users. It seems implausible that there has not been a significant change in the health-consciousness of the typical purchaser in the last month or two, vs. prior to that. I can't tell you what the change would be, but I find it highly implausible t…

There has also been a decrease in traffic accidents and violent crime. This is data from hospital casualty units in South Africa

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#146

Post by noway421 »

anonsubmit2671 wrote: post #93

Apparently, the new term is "physical distancing," because it's not like people are mass unfriending people or calling them Mr./Mrs. SoAndSo.

Funny thing is, term "physical distancing" doesn't make sense without mentioning "social distancing", because without that context and by itself it might mean different things.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#147

Post by lolc »

lalos wrote: post #2

"Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t lead to inaccurate predictions, and so he believes the current decline in illness is a result of social distancing, and not a statistical anomal…

Well their error bars may be smaller this year but they're comparing to past years.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#149

Post by cycomanic »

o-__-o wrote: post #71
logicallee wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or the data is invalid. We'll find out soon enough, there are millions of test kits being made available soon.

I dont understand what millions of millions of test kits will do. I’m not going to get tested because I have no symptoms. If I had symptoms I would stay in lockdown until it got worse. I don’t see rationale for anyone going to get tested just because (and based on some of the photos from drive through testing, a very easy way to contract COVID yourself)

It's not just about people with symptoms to get tested. It's about people who are known to have had contact with infected to get tested. Also importantly you want to regularly (at least once a week) test health workers and others who are in contact with vulnerable people. And finally, by doing lots of so called sentinel tests (random testing around the country) you can get a much better picture of how the virus spreads.

In short it is not about your interest if you get tested it is about societies interest.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#150

Post by nroets »

peter_retief wrote: post #145
rossdavidh wrote: post #89

It's fascinating data, and I'm glad it's being taken, but...I am a bit skeptical that we can draw any reasonable conclusions from it without limiting the data to long-term users. It seems implausible that there has not been a significant change in the health-consciousness of the typical purchaser in the last month or two, vs. prior to that. I can't tell you what the change would be, but I find it highly implausible t…

There has also been a decrease in traffic accidents and violent crime. This is data from hospital casualty units in South Africa

Maybe it's not due social distancing, but the economic uncertainty.
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