We're witnessing the fall of the Roman Empire. CDC just implements the will of healthcare bosses who want to take the most of it before this card house falls apart. In the corporate world this is called the phase of creative destruction.
CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
211–220 of 339 posts
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Meanwhile, the FDA did not allow anyone other than the CDC to test for coronavirus. true > there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups. also true All of it is completely true. And the issue is that both of these were blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention to the situation. The CDC was struggling to develop the test, and the FDA regulates who can create tests under normal circumstances. The larger ques…
> Everyone saw the CDC couldn't scale up in time. Everyone knew the FDA regulation... No way that is possibly true. People realised they didn't have tests. A bunch of people of a liberterian bent or systems thinkers would have picked the FDA as the problem very quickly. But for most people diagnosing and rectifying that sort of snarl in a complex bureaucratic process would have taken about as long as it did. This hap…
I think Leslie Groves or Admiral Rickover would have figured it out with a few phone calls.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#213Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? 2) 3.5 weeks ago the Trump admin promised 1 million tests that week with many more to follow soon thereafter. After all this time they still haven't materialized, so what happened to the million tests? 3)…
The CDC is still instructing healthcare providers NOT to test UNLESS a person has either come into contact with a known COVID-19 carrier OR recently traveled abroad. Otherwise, the guideline is "do not test."
I am married to a healthcare provider. Nevermind clinical judgement, context, or an abundance of available tests. If you don't meet the above guidelines, my spouse is being firmly instructed to follow the CDC guideline: do not test.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m curious... did GS already have those masks for some reason or did they purchase and then donate them? I thought the masks were is short supply so I’m surprised if a non-health care org was able to purchase 100k masks recently.
I will do some reading, but it is my thinking that they had stockpiled them, pre-crash. Will update. to be explicit, GS has no other purpose to stockpile other than they anticipated... better than hospitals. EDIT: There are a few stories saying the stockpiled pre-crash. Though some claim they had them since the swine-flu epidemic in 2009. Given the read I had on how the markets might respond, and how much information…
It seems doubtful GS anticipated this better than hospitals... more likley they had a budget that allowed them to prepare for a wider range of events.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#215The CDC is still instructing healthcare providers NOT to test UNLESS a person has either come into contact with a known COVID-19 carrier OR recently traveled abroad. Otherwise, the guideline is "do not test."
I am married to a healthcare provider. Nevermind clinical judgement, context, or an abundance of available tests. If you don't meet the above guidelines, my spouse is being firmly instructed by the clinical practice manager to follow the CDC guideline: do not test.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
WHO deserves a ton of blame. For one, they refused to call it a pandemic and actually pressured experts who disagreed to take back what they said and then called it a Pandemic the very next day. https://twitter.com/RizaHawkeye8/status/1241415090097684480
Um, I've not been watching the WHO that closely, but didn't they state clearly their definition of a pandemic, and say [not a direct quote] "it's not yet a pandemic but might well become one", and then when it did pass their definition they called it a pandemic. Seems reasonable, forthright, and scientific. What did you want instead? Every epidemic to be called a pandemic?
It was obvious to many experts (see tweet for one example) that it was a pandemic. These experts were frustrated that WHO was not recognizing it as one.
My opinion is that WHO should have called it pandemic much earlier and raised the alarm much earlier.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#217The damage will be much longer lasting than this. The Chinese bought the US precious weeks to prepare while it locked down vast numbers of its own population. The disaster could have been prevented through a vigorous testing/quarrantine program in Washington and California. At every step of the way the US either bungled testing, or actively discouraged testing. It's been nothing but lies and mistakes from the start.…
I don't understand this mentality when other Western Nations are going through the exact same thing. Did the administration cause every other countries problems with containing the virus too?
Yes the western countries failed spectacularly. Even tho they had Asian counties as examples. There are no excuses
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have you considered that people are looking at you not because they want to shame you, but because they're trying to determine if you're sick and they should be extra careful around you, e.g. don't touch anything you've touched, etc? If the guidance so far has been to only wear a mask if you're sick, it seems reasonable to assume that someone wearing a mask is more likely to be sick than average.
Most of these people are passersby on the street who would have no opportunity to touch something I've touched. I heard from someone who wore a mask recently who was flat-out told, "You're overreacting." It's not just caution, there is some kind of social insistence that the masks are not necessary and even to be discouraged, which I even sense in myself when I'm out and about without a mask and see others wearing th…
I think it has to do with their (incorrect) assessment of the situation. Rather than reevaluate their assessment (as that would increase their anxiety), they rationalize your assessment as overreaction.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
How have they been "wildly irresponsible"? Placing a label on the whole crisis is a rather symbolic act. Important was and is to spread the available knowledge, tests, and know-how.
But saying that there was no proof for human to human transmission [0] in mid January when china was already going ramping up containement efforts was negligent imo. They were the only international observers on the ground and it's hard for the rest of the world to prepare itself when they tell you that you basically don't have to. They shouldn't have just relayed whatever early study came out that was most likely tr…
I've embedded the tweet in wikipedia's timeline of events (I've trimmed the events).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932...
31 December
On 31 December 2019, China contacts the WHO and informs them of "cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan"[37]
2 January
On 2 January, 41 admitted hospital patients in Wuhan, China, were confirmed to have contracted (laboratory-confirmed) the 2019-nCoV (Novel coronavirus); 27 (66%) patients had direct exposure to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.
6 January
On Monday, 6 January, the Wuhan health authorities announced they continued seeking the cause but had so far ruled out influenza, avian influenza, adenovirus, and coronaviruses SARS and MERS as the respiratory pathogen that had infected 59 people as of 5 January.[52]
9 January
The WHO confirmed that the novel coronavirus had been isolated from one person who had been hospitalised.
11–12 January
In China, more than 700 close contacts of the 41 confirmed cases, including more than 400 healthcare workers, had been monitored, with no new cases reported in China since 5 January.[36][50][63][71] The WHO published initial guidance on travel advice, testing in the laboratory and medical investigation.
14 January
World Health Organization (WHO) @WHO Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China.
14 January
On 14 January, two of the 41 confirmed cases in Wuhan were reported to include a married couple, raising the possibility of human-to-human transmission.[74][75]
On 14 January, Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit said that there had been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus, mainly small clusters in families, adding that "it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission"
18 January
The Wuhan City government held an annual banquet in the Baibuting community celebrating the Chinese New Year with forty thousand families in attendance despite the officials' knowledge of the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. They shared meals, plates and ate together.
20 January
On 20 January, after two medical staff were infected in Guangdong, China announced that the virus was human-to-human transmissible.
Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
Uhm, yes, skin in the game? Things generally don't improve because people get better. Things generally improve because bad people/groups/corporations/ideas fail. Way more people should be fired / tried / impeached. Need I remind you that nobody went to jail over 2008? It does make the system more healthy. If you're responsible for the health of some country you better be scared , because the consequences are dire, an…
That's effectively the complete opposite of how to actually eliminate errors. The way engineers do it involves depersonalizing it to get away from blame games, assessing all contributing causes, doing proper risk modeling and working to improve the systems so that they rely on human frailty as little as possible. Skin in the game is an easy concept we're all familiar with, but it generally leads to adverse behavior l…
I don't think the concept is easy for people to understand at all. It's just darwinism really, but people think it's about punishment. Note that darwinism doesn't just reject bad ideas, it has a rather high and variable false positive rate. I.e. it's unfair, for example Ramanujan died prematurely despite being a genius and a gift to his species. But it is overall also quite effective.
If you can game the numbers there's no real skin in the game. And people do! Just sell volatility ("everything will always be fine") regardless of the conditions, it will work wonders, until you blow up. The difference is that if you blow up your own money you cannot continue the game, whereas if you blow other people's money - you can.