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CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

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Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#11

Post by yodsanklai »

panarky wrote: post #5

Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? 2) 3.5 weeks ago the Trump admin promised 1 million tests that week with many more to follow soon thereafter. After all this time they still haven't materialized, so what happened to the million tests? 3)…

> Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do?

Many (most?) countries do have a problem testing people. It's not just the US. I imagine the whole world is competing on some scare resources now and most countries are simply unable to produce millions of these tests (and even masks apparently) in a short time.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#12

Post by [deleted] »

Leary wrote: post #6
tunesmith wrote: post #2

This whole line of analysis has confused me. The CDC tests, while flawed, were never very numerous, right? Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? It's seemed to me the problem has more been that we haven't stockpiled supplies over the past few years like South Korea did.

The CDC produced 160,000 tests that were defective. Meanwhile, the FDA did not allow anyone other than the CDC to test for coronavirus. That is the reason why the US was weeks behind on testing.

[deleted]

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#13

Post by toomuchtodo »

lmkg wrote: post #3
tunesmith wrote: post #2

This whole line of analysis has confused me. The CDC tests, while flawed, were never very numerous, right? Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? It's seemed to me the problem has more been that we haven't stockpiled supplies over the past few years like South Korea did.

> Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? The contention in the article is that there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups.

An analogy I used over a “Zoom & Bourbon” meetup last night was that the COVID handling by the US federal government is very similar to aircraft crashes: it’s never just one failure, but a series that cascade (and you invariably “get behind the aircraft” due to being overwhelmed) and lead you to the crash site.

We’re almost to the crash site, just a few more weeks to go. Please make every attempt to stay safe and healthy.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#14

Post by acqq »

MikeAmelung wrote: post #7
panarky wrote: post #5

Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? 2) 3.5 weeks ago the Trump admin promised 1 million tests that week with many more to follow soon thereafter. After all this time they still haven't materialized, so what happened to the million tests? 3)…

Literally no country has tested 1 million people, let alone millions.

> no country has tested 1 million people

Well, the country prepared for epidemics just didn't have to test one million people, but still kept it under control:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how-south-korea-flattened...

They were indeed able to use their tests more efficiently than any other country, and to really do a lot of tests compared to any other country:

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...

348,582 tests up to now.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#15

Post by dominotw »

blackrock wrote: post #10

There is obviously an easy solution to this. Blame China. It’s their fault that, while America had a 2 months advance notice, that our leadership could not take this problem seriously. And they let all the infections come in from Europe, which must be why New York exploded in infected cases in the past week.

what does this comment have to do with the article ?

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#16

Post by BoiledCabbage »

lmkg wrote: post #3
tunesmith wrote: post #2

This whole line of analysis has confused me. The CDC tests, while flawed, were never very numerous, right? Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? It's seemed to me the problem has more been that we haven't stockpiled supplies over the past few years like South Korea did.

> Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? The contention in the article is that there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups.

> Meanwhile, the FDA did not allow anyone other than the CDC to test for coronavirus.

true

> there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups.

also true

All of it is completely true. And the issue is that both of these were blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention to the situation. The CDC was struggling to develop the test, and the FDA regulates who can create tests under normal circumstances. The larger question is why the heck didn't the administration seeing what was going, on step in, and say this is an emergency situation, allow private testing! That's your role as head of the executive branch. Observe the individual government agencies and plan and coordinate a response. It would take 5 mins to call the FDA and say "due to this emergency situation, change your rules to allow private testing".

Why did the admin just sit there this whole time? Everyone saw the CDC couldn't scale up in time. Everyone knew the FDA regulation only allowed the CDC to create a test. Why do nothing for weeks watching this train wreck?

In any emergency or sudden crisis situation, shit happens - things don't go to plan. The point of leadership is to analyze what's going on and take decisive action to rectify it. Not just stand there. Put in place a damn contingency plan.

If you have a livesite issue and one of your main services to diagnose goes down, You look to see how long it will take to get it back up - and if it's not fast enough you find a mitigation. You don't just stand there and say "Well, we'll just sit and wait however long it takes to get fixed while letting this thing spiral out of control. And do essentially nothing else to solve this."

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#17

Post by vkou »

yodsanklai wrote: post #11
panarky wrote: post #5

Does anyone know actual facts about testing in the US? Yes, the CDC's tests were flawed, but ... 1) Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? 2) 3.5 weeks ago the Trump admin promised 1 million tests that week with many more to follow soon thereafter. After all this time they still haven't materialized, so what happened to the million tests? 3)…

> Other countries don't have a problem testing millions of people, so why doesn't the US use the same tests they do? Many (most?) countries do have a problem testing people. It's not just the US. I imagine the whole world is competing on some scare resources now and most countries are simply unable to produce millions of these tests (and even masks apparently) in a short time.

The problem is not lack of raw resources, the problem is lack of manufacturing capacity. We had a 2 month lead-up time to get that capacity in place, and we didn't lift a finger.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#18

Post by rocky1138 »

Leary wrote: post #6
tunesmith wrote: post #2

This whole line of analysis has confused me. The CDC tests, while flawed, were never very numerous, right? Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? It's seemed to me the problem has more been that we haven't stockpiled supplies over the past few years like South Korea did.

The CDC produced 160,000 tests that were defective. Meanwhile, the FDA did not allow anyone other than the CDC to test for coronavirus. That is the reason why the US was weeks behind on testing.

I don't doubt you, but I'd love it if you posted links to sources for the defective tests and the fact that the FDA didn't allow anyone but the CDC to test.

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#19

Post by [deleted] »

dominotw wrote: post #15
blackrock wrote: post #10

There is obviously an easy solution to this. Blame China. It’s their fault that, while America had a 2 months advance notice, that our leadership could not take this problem seriously. And they let all the infections come in from Europe, which must be why New York exploded in infected cases in the past week.

what does this comment have to do with the article ?

[deleted]

Re: CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come

#20

Post by dominotw »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #16
lmkg wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the contention that if these early tests had worked, they actually would have been sufficient to protect the entire nation? The contention in the article is that there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups.

> Meanwhile, the FDA did not allow anyone other than the CDC to test for coronavirus. true > there were multiple, compounding layers of fuck-ups. also true All of it is completely true. And the issue is that both of these were blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention to the situation. The CDC was struggling to develop the test, and the FDA regulates who can create tests under normal circumstances. The larger ques…

> FDA regulation only allowed the CDC to create a test

wondering why this regulation exists and are there any guidelines for extreme situations.

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