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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#171

Post by lonelappde »

drinchev wrote: post #68

Back in time ( end of January ) when I heard the news about Wuhan and what happened there I was a bit worried, but always positive. When the virus spread in Italy ( I live in Berlin ) I was daily asking "Why don't they stop people from / to Italy?", "Why don't they go and help Italy?", "Where is a plan for handling the situation?", "Why nobody knows >how All in all the answers were : "They don't want to kill the econ…

How is it a crime against humanity to not stop individuals from hurting each other? Doesn't responsibility lie with the person infecting others after being warned?

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#172

Post by lonelappde »

yomly wrote: post #89
jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

While you are reasonable to be sceptical over the official reports, I have no insight into the true number, I am sure there is still some lingering virus floating around in China. That said, you are grossly underestimating the cultural response to this: here is some flavour of how people acted different in China. Chinese New Year (equivalent to Christmas / New Year if you are a westerner) was effectively cancelled by…

Why is CCP letting foreigners in to China, and letting them move freely? They've locked down interior movement but opened the border? That just smells like deception.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#173

Post by lonelappde »

mardifoufs wrote: post #143
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I'm not really buying what these articles are selling. The world had plenty of time to act and opted not to. This all seems more like an attempt to avoid blame than a credible analysis of the situation. It's a far better story for the western politicians that the evil Chinese didn't give enough warning than to acknowledge that plenty of warning was given and none was heeded until the developing crisis was alread…

It's hard to prepare when the WHO [0] was still telling that the virus probably doesn't spread between humans as little as 2 months ago. Of course the western governments should've reacted earlier, but the margin wasn't that big. The WHO were the observers on the ground and they chose to play down the whole thing to ease china. [0] https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20

2 months ago China had already announced human to human transmission.

WHO isn't a an omniscient god. They don't have any information that regional authorities don't give them. If Chinese government lies, that's the Chinese government's crime.

People got sick at a fish market in December. It was reported up to government as a potentially novel illness by Dec 31.

A mere 2 weeks later on Jan 14 there was no clear evidence of transmission yet, because viruses take time to transmit and incubate and sicken and get reported to authorities. On Jan 20 Chinese authorities announced human transmission.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-corona...

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#174

Post by nikolay »

I hear many keep saying "stay positive"! Wishful thinking and optimism typically lead to shorter lifespans and the reasoning is optimists underestimate threats, ignore symptoms, don't prepare to handle threats. Not to panic, but be more on the pessimistic side, save lives - including your own! We have an excellent saying here in America, which the young do not follow (especially in Flordia!) these days: "Better safe than sorry!"

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#175

Post by glofish »

simias wrote: post #73
glofish wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

perhaps what you are missing is that even lesser measures could have massive impacts, - do we need to take the temperature of everyone at each hour? almost certainly not. Should you be reporting in from every location? almost certainly not. Should we be treating each other as bioweapons all in the name of "safety"? absolutely not. - is it good if mobility is reduced? almost certainly it has a massive effect. I think…

Modeling the spread of a virus is insanely complex and all existing models are certainly flawed one way or the other but doing nothing and just see what happens doesn't seem very rational to me. As more data comes in, models improves and we can adjust the response.

I did not advocate "doing nothing" instead I said let's see what the current measures are doing.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#176

Post by yomly »

lonelappde wrote: post #172
yomly wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While you are reasonable to be sceptical over the official reports, I have no insight into the true number, I am sure there is still some lingering virus floating around in China. That said, you are grossly underestimating the cultural response to this: here is some flavour of how people acted different in China. Chinese New Year (equivalent to Christmas / New Year if you are a westerner) was effectively cancelled by…

Why is CCP letting foreigners in to China, and letting them move freely? They've locked down interior movement but opened the border? That just smells like deception.

I think it was more a case that the timings of this were before the pandemic had spread widely outside of China and the lockdown outside of Hubei was much softer than inside.

But the locals were more individually prepared to comply with guidelines

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