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Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

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Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#201

Post by bjornsing »

robocat wrote: post #84

Firstly, there is 10 weeks of evidence on what other countries have done to avoid transmission. Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, China, and Japan all show a variety of strategies and have some successes under their belts. Sure, it’s messy social data, and they have systematic differences from other countries, but it’s real data about what is working. Ioannidis says: “If we assume that case fatality rate among individual…

Also, if 1% of the population becomes infected, and you continue economic activity, then 67% will be infected in a matter of months... This is a virus with R0 around 3 people. Suppression is the only strategy.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#202

Post by im3w1l »

Barrin92 wrote: post #103
defen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.” Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? Where does the idea of 1% come fro…

>Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? because everyone on the diamond princess was tested. So we know for sure how many cases we are dealing within the sample. ~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Italy sits at 9%. So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Kore…

> So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Korea have lost a magnitude of corpses somewhere.

There is a third possibility. False positive tests: Germany and South Korea may have less cases than they think they do.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#203

Post by op03 »

robocat wrote: post #84

Firstly, there is 10 weeks of evidence on what other countries have done to avoid transmission. Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, China, and Japan all show a variety of strategies and have some successes under their belts. Sure, it’s messy social data, and they have systematic differences from other countries, but it’s real data about what is working. Ioannidis says: “If we assume that case fatality rate among individual…

> but sometimes you have to make decisions without enough data and change your game

How orgs mess up handling complex problems, which they are not prepared for, or have the capacities, or time to handle has been studied ever since the second world war scientifically.

And science comes up with the concept of Bounded Rationality.

Which says if an org doesnt have the mental capacities, time, resources or the problem falls in a certain class of complex problems then whatever solution the org comes up with will be half baked.

And half baked solutions create their own issues and the cycle repeats creating a cascade.

Secondly when orgs Choose or are Forced to do something about problems above their capacities and naturally fail, they get blamed, they get defensive and react causing counter reactions which again produce a cascade of issues.

What gets lost in that blame game trap is everyone forgets that no one can solve the problem.

Bounded Rationality and more modern iterations of such theories suggest a simple solution - Pick simpler problems.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#204

Post by bugzz »

Barrin92 wrote: post #103
defen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.” Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? Where does the idea of 1% come fro…

>Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? because everyone on the diamond princess was tested. So we know for sure how many cases we are dealing within the sample. ~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Italy sits at 9%. So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Kore…

Go check South Korea's numbers again. As their cases have resolved, death rate has steadily increased, and it's now at 1.33%. It will continue to rise. Same with Germany, it just takes time to die. South Korea had already found majority of their current cases 2-3 weeks ago, but deaths are only now picking up.

Edit: now 1.37%, up again since I checked a couple hours ago.

The same rise in death rate was observed way back when SARS happened. At first people estimated death rate at 2-3%, and it was continually revised upwards as cases resolved.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#205

Post by cycrutchfield »

antpls wrote: post #198
postalrat wrote: post #178

http://www.euromomo.eu/ Mortality across Europe has drastically declined in the past few months. Seems like everyone sitting at home is saving a ton of lives. Fewer accidents, fewer sicknesses, maybe even people eating a bit healthier. Why stop locking yourselves indoors when so many lives are being saved by not leaving home?

It kinda proves the point that covid19 alone is less deadly than many other causes

I don't see how you've come to that conclusion.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#206

Post by robocat »

op03 wrote: post #203
robocat wrote: post #84

Firstly, there is 10 weeks of evidence on what other countries have done to avoid transmission. Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, China, and Japan all show a variety of strategies and have some successes under their belts. Sure, it’s messy social data, and they have systematic differences from other countries, but it’s real data about what is working. Ioannidis says: “If we assume that case fatality rate among individual…

> but sometimes you have to make decisions without enough data and change your game How orgs mess up handling complex problems, which they are not prepared for, or have the capacities, or time to handle has been studied ever since the second world war scientifically. And science comes up with the concept of Bounded Rationality. Which says if an org doesnt have the mental capacities, time, resources or the problem fal…

> Bounded Rationality and more modern iterations of such theories suggest a simple solution - Pick simpler problems.

Reality and emergent behaviour throws us complex problemS (like a novel virus), so how does that advice help?

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#207

Post by jwhite »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #173
robocat wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Fine numbers in the presence of a health system that is not overloaded, or a country that has managed to make effective changes to prevent transmission (how did they do that without science huh?) By John’s numbers (0.3% die and 1% of population) Italy should get a total of 1800 deaths. Yet Italy is at 6000 and rapidly rising -…

Many cases in SK and Germany have not resolved yet. I don’t think you can use those numbers so definitively.

I think SK's numbers are becoming more reliable by the day though. The new case rate has stabilised to a small number in the range of 50 to 150 per day and the active case count is dropping at a rate of over 200 per day. The daily death rate has been below 10 the whole time I believe. If that trend continues then SK's CFR will be well known soon and I would guess not dissimilar to current estimates. Though it's always possible a false sense of security will set in and people will relax their habits and send it higher again.

Compare to Germany: weeks behind SK but already more than three times as many cases, new case rate in the last few days of 2500-4500 (SK's max: 851), daily deaths in the last few days 10-29 and heading north. Actually the death rate must reflect an amazing health care system given 30k cases, but it's early days for Germany. Their pipeline is very full, agreed I wouldn't want to make a prediction there.

EDIT: sensitivity.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#208

Post by joe_the_user »

tlrobinson wrote: post #175
johnohara wrote: post #171

The acid test for this article will take place towards the end of this week and into next according to the Surgeon General. Honestly, we're all holding our collective breath and waiting to see whether or not the U.S. begins to approach the same values associated with the Diamond Princess. So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared…

Why do we expect to get better mortality data in the US than other countries?

I don't think many people knowing the facts are expecting that. It's that people, including me, dread the moments when the facts become manifest. This will prove us right but I will take no comfort in that confirmation. On the off chance that these (implausible sounding) arguments turn out right, well, woohoo, great.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#209

Post by yread »

postalrat wrote: post #178

http://www.euromomo.eu/ Mortality across Europe has drastically declined in the past few months. Seems like everyone sitting at home is saving a ton of lives. Fewer accidents, fewer sicknesses, maybe even people eating a bit healthier. Why stop locking yourselves indoors when so many lives are being saved by not leaving home?

The website itself says they have several weeks of delay in reporting and outbreaks are focal in nature

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#210

Post by antpls »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #148
hartator wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well deaths in the US only for flu were 50,000 last year. Still 5x less.

Corvid 19 deaths are doubling every 3 days in US and a few other countries. Do the extrapolation.

Even in Italy, the National Health Institute said that 88% of the declared "dead by covid19" had in fact at least 1 or 2 other pre-morbidities.

If a 80 years old dies from heart attack and is tested positive by covid19, it will count as "dead by covid19".

The numbers we see in the news of "CFR" for the covid19 are, in my opinion, inaccurate. The number only shows the spread of the infection, not its actual fatality rate.

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