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Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

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191–200 of 462 posts

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it's worth, the US CDC has said this about (H1N1)pdm09. I'm not sure if H1N1 is a coronavirus though and I don't know if there's any published research supporting this. But the author's statement seems reasonable enough given it was qualified with "probably". > From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,0…

Nope - MERS and SARS were the only large Coronavirus outbreaks. H1N1 is an Influenza A strain (similar to the so-called Spanish Flu).

Spanish flu and swine flu, you mean. H1N1 is the agent responsible for both.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#192

It’s much easier to quantify the harms of allowing business as usual and letting the infection spread (namely # of deaths) than it is quantifying the cascading repercussions of a massive global economic meltdown. Accordingly, world leaders are being judged based on their ability to contain the spread rather than prevent economic devastation. As a society we are faced with navigating the delicate balance between how m…

> Accordingly, world leaders are being judged based on their ability to contain the spread rather than prevent economic devastation.

Actually I am judging countries by their ability to face facts, act proactively Over the last few months, act responsibly by making sensible decisions that are effective in controlling their outbreaks, while keeping their economy functioning.

A++ for Taiwan (they started acting on Dec 31st, and they had preplanned what to do if faced with a virus outbreak). Very few infections, under control, economy working at 100%.

A+ for South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Fast actions, effective tracing, economies running.

D- for US: little pro-activity, rampant community transmission, head of state in the sand, focusing on not spooking economy while ignoring downside risks to same, extremely poor planning with poor medical stocks. Health system of many states likely to fail. Now headless chickening, with every state left to act for itself (except for some negative interference from GOP). Meanwhile democrats dropped ball on opportunity of a lifetime to act well and help before the shit hit the fan.

B for China: first to have to act, zero pre warning. China acted and seem to have done better than many other countries that had plenty more warning (yes, China did downplay, but that seems to have been internal and not aimed at other countries. Either way, other countries had enough information from the 31st December or at latest mid-January but didn’t act).

C- for New Zealand: some late actions, tried to protect tourism industry and now the whole economy is paying price with shutdown. Extremely poor communication with population (trying not to worry everyone?). Mostly wasted months with inactivity, lack of planning (from my POV watching what info was given to a nurse), lack of emergency medical equipment. However expect that we’ll now respond well given shock treatment of shutdown of whole country,

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Look at the data (in the presence of high testing): https://covid-19.direct/state/WA If you look at thermometer data (less accurate, but a good predictor), there's little problem going…

To my eyes, California just looks slower exponential and Washington is ambiguous. A few days of non-growth can be randomness or reporting problems. But I hope you're right! We all need to do our parts. I'd also note that things are getting "hot" in other states and each has it's problems.

At least some of WA's lower numbers recently were due to fewer tests performed.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why would we use the Diamond Princess CFR instead of China's, or Italy's, or South Korea's? because everyone on the diamond princess was tested. So we know for sure how many cases we are dealing within the sample. ~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Italy sits at 9%. So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Kore…

~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Fine numbers in the presence of a health system that is not overloaded, or a country that has managed to make effective changes to prevent transmission (how did they do that without science huh?) By John’s numbers (0.3% die and 1% of population) Italy should get a total of 1800 deaths. Yet Italy is at 6000 and rapidly rising -…

> By John’s numbers (0.3% die and 1% of population) Italy should get a total of 1800 deaths. Yet Italy is at 6000 and rapidly rising - using real numbers his assumptions are already wrong for a first world country that is a few weeks ahead of the rest of the world.

Just highlighting this bit of the parent’s post. If you want hard evidence that COVID-19 is quantitatively and qualitatively different from other coronaviruses that, as John puts it in his article, “actually infect millions of people every year”… Italy is it.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

~0.3 and ~0.9% are also not optimistic guesses but the current numbers for Germany and SK. Fine numbers in the presence of a health system that is not overloaded, or a country that has managed to make effective changes to prevent transmission (how did they do that without science huh?) By John’s numbers (0.3% die and 1% of population) Italy should get a total of 1800 deaths. Yet Italy is at 6000 and rapidly rising -…

Many cases in SK and Germany have not resolved yet. I don’t think you can use those numbers so definitively.

Actually South Korea is a perfect place to look for a nation which kept it under control.

Germany just lost control last week, so I expect a lot more death starting next week.

Hopefully Germany's plan of isolation will reduce the spread enough, but we will see...

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#196

The acid test for this article will take place towards the end of this week and into next according to the Surgeon General. Honestly, we're all holding our collective breath and waiting to see whether or not the U.S. begins to approach the same values associated with the Diamond Princess. So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared…

>So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared to the DP's 0.013.

This is completely meaningless. Fatalities lag the start of cases by several weeks. Many people from the existing set of active cases will die in the next few weeks. You really should not use this number to draw any conclusions.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we expect to get better mortality data in the US than other countries?

Social distancing and hygiene hopefully contribute to fewer exposures and therefore fewer fatalities. Especially those 65+ with underlying conditions such as hypertension and diabetes.

Ah yes, the United States, where our incidence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and heart disease are so low.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#198

http://www.euromomo.eu/ Mortality across Europe has drastically declined in the past few months. Seems like everyone sitting at home is saving a ton of lives. Fewer accidents, fewer sicknesses, maybe even people eating a bit healthier. Why stop locking yourselves indoors when so many lives are being saved by not leaving home?

It kinda proves the point that covid19 alone is less deadly than many other causes

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#199

It's easy to point at others for imperfect data and imperfect science when the situation is evolving so fast and data is so hard to come by. It seems to me that papers being retracted due to inaccurate evidence is not a sign of sensationalism but of sound science. Once can argue that more diligence should be practiced in the review process, but I assume everyone is trying their best to get the information out there A…

The response will have it consequences too, lost lives, destroyed businesses, ruined families, lost requirement savings.

That's not an argument for letting this disease burn through our entire population. That's an argument for the government to step up and assist people during this time.

Edit: and who gives a shit about your retirement account.

Re: Covid-19: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

#200
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... often just because rulers were so scared by the French experience, that they caved at the first demand for better forms of government. In a similar way, a lot of worker rights gained in the XX century were introduced only because elites were utterly scared by the Soviet experience. Sometimes it helps to have a reference, so to speak.

Speaking of which, before the revolution in which Soviets came to power, we had serfdom in russia - basically our version of a feudal system

Serfdom was abolished in Russia in 1861.
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