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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#151

Post by mancerayder »

lancesells wrote: post #140
scruple wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> call “Stay Indoors” as “Shelter in Place” This piece of this story is utterly fascinating to me right now. It's like half the population has a completely different interpretation of the phrase shelter-in-place. I feel like it's entirely too vague and has led to a situation where, in my neck of the woods in Orange county, CA, people are using the ambiguous language to justify going about their daily lives. Where, to…

I had to venture out Friday in NYC and parks and streets were filled with people. Lines to get cocktails going down the street. Basketball games. No one wearing masks. For the first time since it started I started to be worried about my family and myself. I think "Stay In Your Home" or "Stay the F k Home" are needed as daily SMS messages and voicemails.

Because the American conception of "gently tell people to do the right thing, and their good ole spirit will volunteer to do the right thing" is false.

In France, there are drones flying around blasting speakers at high decibals for people to stay in their homes. There are fines, and repeat offenders can face six months of jail.

In NYC (I live in NYC), we've denigrated the police for the past few years as "fascist" -- ask any average 25 year old you meet in a coffeeshop or Brooklyn bar -- there are protests over arresting people who do illegal things. Police enforcement of simple crimes is considered "a waste of police resources" at best and at worst "systemic racism in action." If you talk about enforcement of subway vagrancy and crimes like smoking on the platform, urinating and so forth, you'll hear a lecture about redlining and some other academic topics from history, you'll be reminded of stop and frisk, quotas and so on. So there you have it, the Left made it hard to sustain order. But the Right doesn't get away scot-free: every Trump supporter I talk to says, "It's my Constitutional Right to do what I want!"

So there you have it. Both Right and Left united in favor of individualism and against common good.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#152

Post by anpago »

jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

I can't comment on what's happening in China, but I do know that south east asians especially students fled from the UK and no doubt elsewhere over the last few weeks back home where it was considered the worse was over. I believe Cathay Pacific put on extra flights back to Hong Kong.

It's noticeable Singapore, Hong Kong and China all reporting imported cases.

In the UK due to the lack of Testing no one but the wealthy know if they have or had Covid unless in a very bad way.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#153

Post by Dahoon »

bitcharmer wrote: post #120
iso1631 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which creates a two-tier society. Those with antibodies get to go about their business, go out to cafes and pubs, get hired for jobs which antibodyless people can't do. Those who don't have the antibodies are stuck under house arrest, so decide "ahh screw it, I'm going to go and get infected".

Would you rather keep the immune people at home to satisfy some odd urge of "social justice"?

What next? Juden signs on houses?

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#154

Post by Dahoon »

mancerayder wrote: post #151
lancesells wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to venture out Friday in NYC and parks and streets were filled with people. Lines to get cocktails going down the street. Basketball games. No one wearing masks. For the first time since it started I started to be worried about my family and myself. I think "Stay In Your Home" or "Stay the F k Home" are needed as daily SMS messages and voicemails.

Because the American conception of "gently tell people to do the right thing, and their good ole spirit will volunteer to do the right thing" is false. In France, there are drones flying around blasting speakers at high decibals for people to stay in their homes. There are fines, and repeat offenders can face six months of jail. In NYC (I live in NYC), we've denigrated the police for the past few years as "fascist" -…

That's what happens when both the left and right is actually right wing.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#155

Post by blackrock »

lb0 wrote: post #95
streetcat1 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. You cannot stop this virus unless you somehow tag who is "clean" and who is "infected" I.e. a solution to this issue would require: 1) Massive testing of everyone. This can be done via a mobile lab or "at home" kit. 2) Issue a clean certificate 3) Division of all areas to "clean" (you can prove that you have been tested) and "infected". For example, you can board a flight or a train only if you are "clean". In…

Wait, what, just right? First we laughed at China, downplayed it, now we ignore them again? (And if not China, why not look more at Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, there seem to be ways to keep the load for the health system reasonable enough .. but what I also miss too much is how we go forward, not just flatten the curve, but also rump up hospitals, and masks for everyone, and what else it takes to get into some reason…

The 2 week quarantine on incoming people, appears to be the only way to control the re-emergence of the virus, from external sources.

Three weeks is probably safer, but they can relax movement on the third week, and allow the person to move about, with active monitoring.

However, this will kill the tourism industry.

Another way, is they only allow entrance from other countries that are certified to also be virus-free. And which controls their borders from other uncertified countries, while maintaining an active health monitoring of the traveling person.

So much for being James Bond in this new age.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#156

Post by patrec »

jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

Your scepticism would be more intelligent if there weren't also South Korea and Taiwan. Basically all countries that made any real effort at suppression seem to be doing comparably well ATM, no? And I think both of them may rank higher in Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index than Italy, so probably brutal censorship is not the only reason they appear to be doing better.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#157

Post by lazyjones »

MiguelVieira wrote: post #10

It feels like Europe and the US only have a few options: * Let the virus run its course and accept a huge death count. * Continue the lockdowns for months, strangling the economy. * Do what's in this article and allow life and the economy to return to normal. * Hope for a miracle. Am I missing something?

The virus doesn't magically teleport from one person to another. Aerosol infection is still somewhat disputed. If adults washed their hands and stopped putting their hands in their mouth and nose like toddlers, their viral load and resulting infection would be less severe. We will all sooner or later get some copies of COVID-19 in our bodies, make sure it's not too much.

Hopefully the panic measures introduced because people are too dumb to understand basic hygiene will be pulled back soon before the economy blows up and we have much bigger problems than a few 100.000 dead people.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#158

Post by lazyjones »

iso1631 wrote: post #32
dbbk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the UK just ordered millions of antibody tests, that will tell you if you've previously had the virus. If we can confirm that people who previously had it are immune, we should be able to selectively let those back into normal society a lot faster. That's my understanding, I may be wrong.

Which creates a two-tier society. Those with antibodies get to go about their business, go out to cafes and pubs, get hired for jobs which antibodyless people can't do. Those who don't have the antibodies are stuck under house arrest, so decide "ahh screw it, I'm going to go and get infected".

Those without antibodies can get plasma with antibodies.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/05/how-blood-plasma-from-re...

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#159

Post by brmgb »

CaptArmchair wrote: post #100
drclau wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why you were downvoted. Maybe because of the second sentence? Mutation is a very real problem. After all flu goes through it all the time. That is the main reason why we get flu regularly. Second reason is that the immunity may be temporary.

What we understand under "mutation" consists of 2 basic facts: * During replication of cells, DNA changes happen by accident and random chance. This yields random new traits. * A random trait might be useful to survival and reproduction, or it might be a hindrance. Maybe a trait that was once beneficial becomes a hindrance when the environment in which an organism lives shifts (i.e. higher Ph values of a pond of wate…

> The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication.

As an aside, I find it very amusing that you used this sentence after your paragraphes on emergent behavior and randomness.

Finalism and anthropomorphism are really hard to avoid even when you clearly know virus have no goal.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#160

Post by perl4ever »

adrianN wrote: post #114
oefrha wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty sure people who go to pubs and beaches aren’t people who are “struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and need to go out”.

Only half-jokingly, people who go to the pub during a pandemic might have an alcohol problem.

Counterpoint - liquor stores are considered essential businesses, at least currently in NY, so why should being an alcoholic force you to go to a bar?
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