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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#71

Post by streetcat1 »

jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

Right.

You cannot stop this virus unless you somehow tag who is "clean" and who is "infected"

I.e. a solution to this issue would require:

1) Massive testing of everyone. This can be done via a mobile lab or "at home" kit.

2) Issue a clean certificate

3) Division of all areas to "clean" (you can prove that you have been tested) and "infected". For example, you can board a flight or a train only if you are "clean".

In general, the initial test should be done in parallel and hopefully at the same time.

Once this test is done, all the "clean" certificate can be issued and the quarantine can end.

I personally cannot see any other way. I.e. even if you end the quartine after X weeks, the virus will start again.

So the race is either to massive testing or to a vaccine. I think that reaching massive testing is easier.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#72

Post by lower »

cracker_jacks wrote: post #47

Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown? This article is distorting what experts are actually saying. This virus will not go away, it needs to be managed. Please consider the following articles of what experts are ACTUALLY saying: https://medium.com/@AmeshAA/covid19-a-path-forward-868d5e8dc... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-us-must-confront...

> Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown?

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, for example: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

In Germany, the Society for Epidemiology has a similar analysis with similar conclusions: https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020...

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#73

Post by simias »

glofish wrote: post #27
MiguelVieira wrote: post #10

It feels like Europe and the US only have a few options: * Let the virus run its course and accept a huge death count. * Continue the lockdowns for months, strangling the economy. * Do what's in this article and allow life and the economy to return to normal. * Hope for a miracle. Am I missing something?

perhaps what you are missing is that even lesser measures could have massive impacts, - do we need to take the temperature of everyone at each hour? almost certainly not. Should you be reporting in from every location? almost certainly not. Should we be treating each other as bioweapons all in the name of "safety"? absolutely not. - is it good if mobility is reduced? almost certainly it has a massive effect. I think…

Modeling the spread of a virus is insanely complex and all existing models are certainly flawed one way or the other but doing nothing and just see what happens doesn't seem very rational to me. As more data comes in, models improves and we can adjust the response.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#74

Post by oefrha »

thinkingemote wrote: post #37
oefrha wrote: post #5

If there’s anything the current debacles in Europe and the U.S. has taught us, it’s that selfish and/or irrational jerks abound, and asking nicely doesn’t work at all.

I believe that the trend to call vast numbers of people selfish and irrational is itself inaccurate and part of in group psychology. People who are not like our group are immoral. Perhaps someone is struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and needs to go out, perhaps there are other factors which should not be waved way as selfishness or being jerks? How can you tell? It's easier not to bother and have less…

I’m pretty sure people who go to pubs and beaches aren’t people who are “struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and need to go out”.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#75

Post by ShorsHammer »

goblin89 wrote: post #58
ShorsHammer wrote: post #36

South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4 months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of covid-19/sars-cov-2 Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in a "crisis". "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deser…

In Seoul, multiple emergency alerts asking people to keep 2 meter distance and to cancel trips and meetings were pushed to mobile phones for the first time yesterday morning. Pedestrian streets in popular districts are still fairly bustling tonight, even if less crowded given the season.

Pushing mobile alerts is what any country with half a clue should be doing. I get regular ones telling me to wash my hands and avoid contact, it's comforting to see them everyfew days.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#76

Post by ShorsHammer »

palijer wrote: post #66
ShorsHammer wrote: post #36

South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4 months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of covid-19/sars-cov-2 Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in a "crisis". "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deser…

I don't think preventing the almost guaranteed deaths of thousands is qualified as a "little" safety.

What actions do you think should be taken to stop other preventable deaths?

I'm in a country that has banned all unnecessary movement, traffic/pedestrian accidents have dropped dramatically, it has saved magnitudes more from dying than from covid-19.

Logically, all movement be banned then? Keen to hear a rationalisation for 10 traffic lives vs 1 contagious virus life.

10 people have died in 3 months since the virus was first tested here. 1500 have died on the roads. I'm interested in the sort of person who would stand up and decree one life worth more than others. Please justify the logic behind such selections.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#77

Post by glandium »

jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

I saw today on Japanese TV that China reportedly doesn't count asymptomatic people who tested positive as of the 14th of February, and that there might be 40k+ of those.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#78

Post by meddlepal »

h_r wrote: post #39
meddlepal wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there is any malice, it's just ignorance. We're in uncharted territory here and people have no idea how to behave. Not to mention humans are social creatures and it's very much against our instincts to be shut-ins that don't interact.

What... what?! You think that | ...those people recorded while spreading their spit all over a train cart. are simply acting in ignorance because they have no idea how to behave?

Oh I misunderstood, yes some people vwant too see the world burn or alternatively they don't understand the gravity of the situation and the potential harm to themselves or others.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#79

Post by baybal2 »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #52
jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

Maybe they stopped the spread in Hubei, but suppose just one infected person travels to another heavily populated province. What is the contingency plan for this obviously dangerous scenario?

Isolate, test, quarantine, repeat

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#80

Post by rafiki6 »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #36

South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4 months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of covid-19/sars-cov-2 Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in a "crisis". "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deser…

I appreciate Franklin's thought here. Unfortunately those of us being rational are subject to the whims of others :(
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