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Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

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Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#161

Post by fxtentacle »

maxander wrote: post #100
DethNinja wrote: post #36

Honestly, I don’t believe we will see a huge depression unless there is war. People are still available for work and all the equipment used for producing value is in good conditions. So long as government provides fiscal stimulus, depression shouldn’t happen. In case it happens though, you are better of farming stuff like potatoes and chicken than developing software until government steps in with fiscal stimulus, th…

In many cases, people aren't available; they're sheltering at home, social distancing. Even for those who can work remotely, the disruption to routine is going to reduce productivity. And worse, many assets are going to be destroyed- for instance, restaurants that go under while distancing is taking place are just going to be gone, and while the brute equipment can be reused later, the "organizational capital" (the h…

Restaurants won't have to go away if you freeze the rent and pay the previous employees a replacement income.

In other words, providing a stimulus package paid to the right people can prevent it.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#162

Post by quickthrower2 »

madhadron wrote: post #46

People are acting as though we're going back to a pre-industrial economy with this. It's not true. The power isn't going out. The water will continue to come out of the tap. So my suggestion short term is: learn to cook if you don't know how to. Not fancy, haute cuisine, but how to take whatever's in the pantry and make something tasty out of it. Learn how to grow some produce in small spaces, even if it's just herbs…

Lentils. Just boil them in water with a stock cube. Done

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#163

Post by fxtentacle »

People skills & Frustration tolerance

1-2% of society are always on the verge of depression, as that is just how gauss distributions work. But chances are, it'll soon be 10%. Google therapeutic shopping and you know that people are willing to spend a lot of money to feel better.

So if you can handle hearing the whining of depressed people without it dragging you down too much, offer to do free video chat with lonely people now. Your goal isn't to change their situation in any way, but by telling you about it and feeling heard, you can help them change their feelings about their situation. So you mostly just listen, reveal related facts about yourself, and ask caring questions.

Once the crisis is over, your newfound ability to stay cheerful in the presence of adversity and your ability to get along well with different kinds of people will be a very valuable asset for romance and work.

Add cooking and laundry and those 4 traits are what I believe most HN readers will be lacking in comparison to the normal population.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#164

Post by quickthrower2 »

pergadad wrote: post #135
BurningFrog wrote: post #50

My thought is that this virus will have passed through the world, one way or another, in 4-8 months. After that, the world reverts back to what it was doing. My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy. It's more like a slow moving natural disaster. I'll admit I don't feel super confident that this is how things work. Happy to be corrected!

Sorry, I don't want to be too negative but I find your sentiment very naive and self-centred. If you're well off now you'll be fine. If you're decently off in a wealthy country you'll be fine too. If you're one of the precariously employed and healthcare-less workers in a country like the US you will suffer and might die. If you are a precariously employed person in a poor country you'll watch many friends and family…

This hitting Syria give me the chills.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#165

Post by kd5bjo »

glouwbug wrote: post #109
pen2l wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Point is, have fun. Don't be a walking talking wikipedia page of logical facts. This is sort of what I am. I think it started long ago maybe when I felt as if this is one way I can provide value: to give you facts. I'm aware that this is a problem, in that by doing this I'm not really engaged in a back-and-forth conversation -- I've been aware of this for some time, it's just that it's hard to transition away from…

Sure, but one shouldn't feel obligated to provide value. Providing intellectual stimulation when unasked for immediately marks one (to the lay person) as the proverbial know-it-all. Their body language will speak magnitudes; just watch the direction of their feet. Anything more than 30 degrees away from your direction will indicate they are not interested in the service you think you may be providing. You must gain c…

An alternative view on this is to realize that being a non-judgemental sounding board often provides much greater value to your conversation partner than offering advice. I often find that people who are having trouble with something already know what the best solution is and simply need to build up enough confidence in their own reasoning to act on it.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#166

Post by ilaksh »

BurningFrog wrote: post #50

My thought is that this virus will have passed through the world, one way or another, in 4-8 months. After that, the world reverts back to what it was doing. My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy. It's more like a slow moving natural disaster. I'll admit I don't feel super confident that this is how things work. Happy to be corrected!

Take a look at what Ray Dalio and others have been saying about the long-term debt cycle.

In fact, there is a massive global debt problem that has been building for many decades.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#168

Post by ilaksh »

cyphar wrote: post #152
BurningFrog wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. But it sounds like that's independent of the virus? I only meant that the virus event doesn't add any fundamental flaw.

It doesn't "add a flaw", but instead it triggers the instability that exists because of the existing flaws. If large amounts of people stop being able to keep their heads above water (which is happening because of CoVID-related layoffs and reduced business) then their accumulated debt can crush them. Very few people in the US can survive in such poor economic conditions for "4-8 months" -- more than 60% of Americans…

The thing I am worried about is that as the US goes ahead and helps its own people by essentially printing money, the rest of the world is getting crushed.

If many countries see their currency completely failing, they may be forced to look for radical changes. Which could mean some countries decide they must try to move away from the dollar as reserve. And that's the type of thing that could lead to a global war.

So I really, really hope that people are aware that money needs to work for everyone and act accordingly.

Personally I believe that there are fundamental structural issues with the current system, and it needs an upgrade to correct those issues and to be much more technologically sophisticated. The new system must also have sustainability as one of its core tenets.

What I think will happen is more countries crashing and burning, followed by half-assed sovereign debt relief. Whether we actually get to a world war, who knows.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#169

Post by elmarschraml »

Skills are tactics. Dealing with a recession is about strategy.

Most importantly: this is a time to focus on reducing risks, rather than maximizing profit.

This is a crappy time to start a startup or being a freelancer. Keep your job, build your skills, save money, and start in a few years.

Think about your job's security: Pay attention to your employers annual/quarterly reports. Which industries does your employer sell to? Travel, restaurants, hotel, retail, small businesses will be the worst hit, with little money to spend.

This is also a bad time to change jobs - depending on your local laws, it probably is much, much easier to lay off someone who just started.

Maybe broaden your skillls. In good times, it is more profitable to be a specialist - e.g. much better to be THE leading expert on scaling wordpress, rather than an all-purpose linux admin. In bad times, when jobs are scarce, being less of a specialist increaes the number of jobs you are suitable for.

Save money, lower your burn-rate, extend your runway - usually meant for start-ups, but this goes for your personal finances just as well

Become familiar with laws and benefits from the government for unemployment, lay-offs etc - if you should happen to find yourself unemployed, know what you have to do, how much assistance you can expect.

That being said: If you have a high risk-tolerance, and can afford to, now is also a great time to start a business or to invest, simply because nobody else is, so there is much less competition for everything.

Re: Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

#170

Post by shoo »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #162
madhadron wrote: post #46

People are acting as though we're going back to a pre-industrial economy with this. It's not true. The power isn't going out. The water will continue to come out of the tap. So my suggestion short term is: learn to cook if you don't know how to. Not fancy, haute cuisine, but how to take whatever's in the pantry and make something tasty out of it. Learn how to grow some produce in small spaces, even if it's just herbs…

Lentils. Just boil them in water with a stock cube. Done

you can get pretty far by stir frying onion/garlic/chili, then adding in some more diced veg and/or a tin of beans or tuna or tomato or something. add a side of whatever else you've got. rice, pasta, boiled eggs.

gourmet cooking it is not, but cheap and easy and often tasty

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