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U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#51

Post by [deleted] »

zebraflask wrote: post #47
vanniv wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in California. If you want food, there is a 2 hour wait at the market. You will then be permitted to buy one carton of milk, one 2-pound package of chicken or beef, one loaf of bread, and two canned products -- all from an incredibly limited selection, as that's all the food there is to be had. I spent the entire day yesterday acquiring food by visiting every store in town and waiting in every line. I managed…

This is clearly a troll post. Mods, please remove.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#52

Post by _bxg1 »

lordnacho wrote: post #14

Here's something I've been thinking about for a few days. Suppose the government does a massive bailout of everyone. They guarantee jobs, they give everyone money so they don't run out. And it works. In a few months from now, the economy turns out to have just hit a speed bump and everything is back to how it was. What does that say about the economy? I mean if we can stop working and basically just lend ourselves mo…

I definitely believe that the wealth exists right now for everyone to do just fine without these months of productivity. If only it were distributed correctly.

But that's the problem: our economic system has to be a system, and arbitrary exceptions have to be... er... the exception, not the norm. What's hard (though not nearly as hard as certain politicians would tell you) is creating a system that allows for both proper creation and distribution of wealth, and works in all cases. The right-wing tends to write off the second objective as intractable (not always in good faith) and focuses on the first one. The left-wing tends to neglect the third objective (being systematic/working in all cases).

Think of it this way: it's easy to write a piece of code that does one exact thing. It's hard to create a system of code that does the right thing in all possible cases, including ones you haven't thought about.

All of that said: we have plenty of resources and ingenuity to solve this problem and build that system. We're just hampered by some incompetent actors and by other bad-faith actors who don't want it to exist because they benefit from the one that we have.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#53

Post by _bxg1 »

cultus wrote: post #4

It's absolutely insane that the US isn't even guaranteeing sick leave in all this, let alone a significant portion of lost income. I guarantee you it is cheaper than a depression.

Or healthcare. Which that 30% will lose when they lose their jobs. During a pandemic.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#54

Post by brianwawok »

tomcam wrote: post #17
lordnacho wrote: post #14

Here's something I've been thinking about for a few days. Suppose the government does a massive bailout of everyone. They guarantee jobs, they give everyone money so they don't run out. And it works. In a few months from now, the economy turns out to have just hit a speed bump and everything is back to how it was. What does that say about the economy? I mean if we can stop working and basically just lend ourselves mo…

It would all be put on the credit card, like the $23 trillion we owe at the moment. Might be another, let’s say, $4 trillion. The only ways to get out of that number are defaulting on the debts, which would greatly harm pension plans and other countries, or inflate our way out it, which could easily lead to hyperinflation, which would ruin pension plans and the world economy.

It’s too simplistic to call it a credit card.

If I spend more than I earn, sure it goes on a credit card. I have to find a way out.

If a country that prints money spends more than it makes... it can print more.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#55

Post by patrickthebold »

smacktoward wrote: post #36
vanniv wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shortage of money is not the problem. The problem is that we have stopped making stuff. Once the warehouses all empty, there will be no more products. All those nice things you are used to buying to make your life nice and safe and clean and fun will be gone. The infrastructure to even make the stuff will decay and be gone. Printing money doesn't make products. It doesn't repair factories. It doesn't prevent the…

What it does do is shore up demand, which is why all those products got made in the first place. They got made because someone had an expectation that they could sell them. Nobody is going to be making anything to sell if the entire population has no money. This is why it's essential that relief go to directly to people, and that we free those people up enough from expenses that aren't directly economically productiv…

To a certain extent that's true, but at a certain point, why would someone bother making things in exchange for money, if someone is just going to give them money.

We need a few people to actually do work, but it's hard to figure out how to make that happen in a way that is fair.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#56

Post by m0zg »

I would like to see the exact, unedited quote if you expect me to believe this. Right now this looks like fake news, like reports of Mnuchin saying "we're gonna have 20% unemployment" the other day, which Mnuchin himself denied.

There's simply no way someone in Bullard's (or Mnuchin's) position would say anything as dramatic as the article implies as categorically as the article implies.

There is no corroboration that I could find. Everything else references the Bloomberg article, which, in turn, references nothing at all.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#57

Post by naveen99 »

epicureanideal wrote: post #3
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #2

For context, the highest unemployment rate was during the Great Depression, 24.9%. The methodology likely has changed since then but it's still sobering to think we might soon be in that territory. Hopefully this will be shorter lived and not have a great war as a catalyst for ending.

It would be nice if they start a Great War Against Disease, and spend as many trillions as needed so no one ever gets the flu, any cold, or any other disease ever again. People keep saying "that's not possible" but there are already a lot of companies working on it. Show me a place I can make $300,000 working on curing diseases and I'd happily spend my life working on it. At the moment making websites pays better.

A lot of physicians make $300k right now. But it’s a bigger sacrifice with or without the money.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#58

Post by raincom »

m0zg wrote: post #56

I would like to see the exact, unedited quote if you expect me to believe this. Right now this looks like fake news, like reports of Mnuchin saying "we're gonna have 20% unemployment" the other day, which Mnuchin himself denied. There's simply no way someone in Bullard's (or Mnuchin's) position would say anything as dramatic as the article implies as categorically as the article implies. There is no corroboration tha…

Basically, Mnuchin and the Fed gang want more power and much more discretion, so that they can help their cronies. Fed loves to buy ETFs like BoJ does, in order to help banks and the rich, if they are given powers. Democrats should focus more on the fiscal policy than giving more powers to the Federal reserve.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#59

Post by Twixes »

nostrademons wrote: post #24
lordnacho wrote: post #14

Here's something I've been thinking about for a few days. Suppose the government does a massive bailout of everyone. They guarantee jobs, they give everyone money so they don't run out. And it works. In a few months from now, the economy turns out to have just hit a speed bump and everything is back to how it was. What does that say about the economy? I mean if we can stop working and basically just lend ourselves mo…

Different crises have different effects on the economy. Or, to paraphrase Anna Karenina, "All healthy economies are alike. Each depressed economy is depressed in its own way." What we need to do with coronavirus lockdowns is essentially to pause the economy. Cut all social contact off, let the virus run its course, develop a treatment or vaccine, and then reboot the economy. If the economy was healthy before (and mos…

Poverty is a consequence of a specific type of liberty: economic liberalism. Few poor people are where they are because of simply having made bad deals. Mostly they were just dealt a bad hand in life and are being exploited by those who were dealt a much better one.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#60

Post by stubish »

epicureanideal wrote: post #3
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #2

For context, the highest unemployment rate was during the Great Depression, 24.9%. The methodology likely has changed since then but it's still sobering to think we might soon be in that territory. Hopefully this will be shorter lived and not have a great war as a catalyst for ending.

It would be nice if they start a Great War Against Disease, and spend as many trillions as needed so no one ever gets the flu, any cold, or any other disease ever again. People keep saying "that's not possible" but there are already a lot of companies working on it. Show me a place I can make $300,000 working on curing diseases and I'd happily spend my life working on it. At the moment making websites pays better.

Meaningless jobs will always pay better. If IT jobs in disease eradication paid $300,000, Silicon Valley would be paying $500,000 to keep the bright minds keeping consumerism alive. You have to pay a lot to get people who want to contribute to society to spend their time not contributing to society. cf. Big Tobacco & Oil.
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