U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#31

Post by lonelappde » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:14 PM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #14

Here's something I've been thinking about for a few days. Suppose the government does a massive bailout of everyone. They guarantee jobs, they give everyone money so they don't run out. And it works. In a few months from now, the economy turns out to have just hit a speed bump and everything is back to how it was. What does that say about the economy? I mean if we can stop working and basically just lend ourselves mo…

What we lose are all the innessential luxuries like bars and restaurants and retail therapy that costs resources and create pollution.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#32

Post by md_ » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:16 PM UTC

vanniv wrote: post #27

In the depression, the government never outlawed the economy. They never made it illegal to produce goods. The world has never experienced intentional economic dismantling on this broad of a scale. Zimbabwe and Venezuela are the closest the world has ever seen. In only three weeks, America, the richest country in human history, has been reduced to waiting in breadlines and praying that we won't starve to death. Our g…

Sorry, but where do you see breadlines?

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#33

Post by lonelappde » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:19 PM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #21

andrekandre wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe something along those lines would be mmt? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory

That's what I'm alluding to, yes. If there was ever a test of it, this would be it. I guess we see what happens soon.

MMT is a technical variation on Keynesianism, which is how the US escaped the great depression and stimulated 70 years of near constant growth except during an oil supply crisis. Maybe next time it will be justified on general economic merit.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#34

Post by vanniv » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:20 PM UTC

md_ wrote: post #32

vanniv wrote: post #27

In the depression, the government never outlawed the economy. They never made it illegal to produce goods. The world has never experienced intentional economic dismantling on this broad of a scale. Zimbabwe and Venezuela are the closest the world has ever seen. In only three weeks, America, the richest country in human history, has been reduced to waiting in breadlines and praying that we won't starve to death. Our g…

Sorry, but where do you see breadlines?

I live in California.

If you want food, there is a 2 hour wait at the market. You will then be permitted to buy one carton of milk, one 2-pound package of chicken or beef, one loaf of bread, and two canned products -- all from an incredibly limited selection, as that's all the food there is to be had.

I spent the entire day yesterday acquiring food by visiting every store in town and waiting in every line. I managed to get enough food to feed us for three days, buying the limit of everything that I was allowed (most markets were so stripped that I could only actually buy one or two items total, because that's all there was).

Only one market still had meat of any kind -- I got about a pound of untrimmed tri-tip. None had eggs or milk, but I got a half pound of butter. I did get a loaf of bread, though.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#35

Post by lonelappde » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:22 PM UTC

smileysteve wrote: post #15

lgessler wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think GP means the government should provide these.

and if not, require it as an accounting practice like pensions.

Which are an unmitigated disaster. What happens during inevitable bankruptcy? Social security needs to be administered by society, not business. Tax business if you want.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#36

Post by smacktoward » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:24 PM UTC

vanniv wrote: post #26

lordnacho wrote: post #14

Here's something I've been thinking about for a few days. Suppose the government does a massive bailout of everyone. They guarantee jobs, they give everyone money so they don't run out. And it works. In a few months from now, the economy turns out to have just hit a speed bump and everything is back to how it was. What does that say about the economy? I mean if we can stop working and basically just lend ourselves mo…

The shortage of money is not the problem. The problem is that we have stopped making stuff. Once the warehouses all empty, there will be no more products. All those nice things you are used to buying to make your life nice and safe and clean and fun will be gone. The infrastructure to even make the stuff will decay and be gone. Printing money doesn't make products. It doesn't repair factories. It doesn't prevent the…

What it does do is shore up demand, which is why all those products got made in the first place. They got made because someone had an expectation that they could sell them. Nobody is going to be making anything to sell if the entire population has no money.

This is why it's essential that relief go to directly to people, and that we free those people up enough from expenses that aren't directly economically productive (things like rent, say) as we can. We want people to have money to spend, so producers will have a reason to go on making things to sell them.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#37

Post by lonelappde » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:30 PM UTC

phillnom wrote: post #16

hprotagonist wrote: post #13

January 23rd, 2021: President Biden has signed into law the COVID-19 Works Progress Act as the first act of his presidency. It was passed easily in the democratically controlled house and senate the day following his inauguration. Calling for an immediate federal hiring surge at all levels of the newly implemented public health services, President Biden said “This act will restore salaries, dignity, and comprehensive…

Where has Joe Biden been this past week? Bernie Sanders got people to donate over 2 million dollars for coronavirus charities. Joe Biden hasn't show himself to be presidential during this pandemic in the least.

For better or for worse, he's been winning primaries in the past week.

There are 1700 Dem delegates remaining. Sanders needs 1000 to win. Biden needs 700.

Sanders isn't going to be President.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#38

Post by vanniv » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:36 PM UTC

smacktoward wrote: post #36

vanniv wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shortage of money is not the problem. The problem is that we have stopped making stuff. Once the warehouses all empty, there will be no more products. All those nice things you are used to buying to make your life nice and safe and clean and fun will be gone. The infrastructure to even make the stuff will decay and be gone. Printing money doesn't make products. It doesn't repair factories. It doesn't prevent the…

What it does do is shore up demand, which is why all those products got made in the first place. They got made because someone had an expectation that they could sell them. Nobody is going to be making anything to sell if the entire population has no money. This is why it's essential that relief go to directly to people, and that we free those people up enough from expenses that aren't directly economically productiv…

In the short term, these kinds of measures can have an effect, sure.

It produces immediate demand at the cost of reduced future investment -- which could potentially keep suppliers afloat temporarily in a crisis.

But while the problem today is a demand problem, we are really only days-to-weeks away from a supply catastrophe unlike anything seen in two centuries or more.

Basically, no new stuff is being made anywhere right now -- because it is illegal to do so most places -- we are all locked in our houses on threat of arrest (or worse in some countries)

Right now, the local warehouses are still full, so the stores get restocked. Those warehouses will get restocked from regional ones.

But, we are draining all of the buffers in all of the supply chains of all of the products. Once it all drains, there is no more supply.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#39

Post by kdkdk0 » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:38 PM UTC

Optimizing for the species survival is more valuable than some whiny landlord demanding rent.

Growing up a poor person going to the city was a real trip.

Life’s exciting things are very different emotionally when you accept Switzerland isn’t an option.

Not having health insurance didn’t stop us from playing with rockets.

Words and feelings are not necessarily a connection to reality. Internal anxiety isn’t truth.

Western culture seems addicted to the notion the world needs it to spread its gospel across the globe, or life isn’t worth living.

Consume in accordance with the demands of high finance!

An exceptional nation brought to its knees by the idea iPhone 2021 not being released is a sign of the end times.

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says

#40

Post by whatsmyusername » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 11:41 PM UTC

smacktoward wrote: post #36

vanniv wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shortage of money is not the problem. The problem is that we have stopped making stuff. Once the warehouses all empty, there will be no more products. All those nice things you are used to buying to make your life nice and safe and clean and fun will be gone. The infrastructure to even make the stuff will decay and be gone. Printing money doesn't make products. It doesn't repair factories. It doesn't prevent the…

What it does do is shore up demand, which is why all those products got made in the first place. They got made because someone had an expectation that they could sell them. Nobody is going to be making anything to sell if the entire population has no money. This is why it's essential that relief go to directly to people, and that we free those people up enough from expenses that aren't directly economically productiv…

Call me a doomer but if the demand for Honey Boo Boo, Keurig Cups, and Tuxedoes for Dogs died off I wouldn't be upset, economic devastation be damned.

Climate Change says tick tock tick tock