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Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

nytimes.com

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Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#141

Post by pm90 »

sigmaprimus wrote: post #62
caseysoftware wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The swans in the viral posts regularly appear in the canals of Burano, a small island in the greater Venice metropolitan area, where the photos were taken. The “Venetian” dolphins were filmed at a port in Sardinia, in the Mediterranean Sea, hundreds of miles away. No one has figured out where the drunken elephant photos came from, but a Chinese news report debunked the viral posts: While elephants did recently come…

Thanks for the link, I appreciate it. I also find it very disappointing that I was fooled into believing this and I have a hard time understanding the motives behind the OP of the canal pictures. I guess I was blinded by my really wanting to see something positive comming from this crisis, it is illogical but realizing this story was not true is making my eyes water right now.

> but realizing this story was not true is making my eyes water right now.

I didn't realize it could have such a powerful impact on you, sorry to hear that. I also saw something to that effect, accepted it, and moved on. I don't think there is really a way to consume information without trusting some things, but seeking deeper validation for things you may think are important. In light of other news, this didn't seem like something worth validating, so I assume many many people have internalized it as truth somewhat.

Such is the nature of disinformation.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#142

Post by tomp »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #111
bosswipe wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean the bottom or the top class?

Top most class. https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/the-worlds-richest-people-also-e... “On Wednesday, British charity Oxfam released a study that found the richest 10 percent of people produce half of the planet’s individual-consumption-based fossil fuel emissions, while the poorest 50 percent — about 3.5 billion people — contribute only 10 percent. Yet those same 3.5 billion people are “living overwhelmingly in the countri…

Top 10% is like 700m people, a.k.a most Western World population. Not a lot of “class-warfare” can happen if you classify countries as just having a single class.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#143

Post by ken »

twblalock wrote: post #126

This situation makes me more pessimistic about solving global climate change. The economic damage caused by "shelter in place" falls disproportionately on the poor and the lower middle class, who work in fields where working from home is not possible. Emission regulations and fuel taxes also fall disproportionately on the same people, because they can't afford newer cars which are more efficient. When the French gove…

This has always been one of the big issues. I remember in college in the 1990's being told that you can't just enact pollution limits globally because developing countries would call foul over the injustice. The UK and the US and others got rich by (doing what we'd describe today as) polluting horribly, on their way to develop cleaner technologies. If you put pollution caps on all countries, it's going to hit developing countries right when they're trying to do the same.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#144

Post by Apocryphon »

bshacklett wrote: post #125
toomuchtodo wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top most class. https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/the-worlds-richest-people-also-e... “On Wednesday, British charity Oxfam released a study that found the richest 10 percent of people produce half of the planet’s individual-consumption-based fossil fuel emissions, while the poorest 50 percent — about 3.5 billion people — contribute only 10 percent. Yet those same 3.5 billion people are “living overwhelmingly in the countri…

Before anyone gets on a soapbox, here's a quick reminder that if you're reading this post, there's a good chance that you're part of that top 10%.

Those in the developed west who get on those soapboxes probably already fall into crunchy green subcultures anyway and are cognizant of their own carbon footprints.

And the active HN reader, whether they fall into that camp or not, are unlikely to be in the actual part of that global 10% who dictate industrial policy that have far-reaching effects on the rest of the world.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#145

Post by pdonis »

gdubs wrote: post #4

I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change. On Bloomberg radio a few weeks ago, an analyst / money manager was talking about how his firm was looking at satellite imagery of pollution in China to measure their economic recovery. More pollution == “better”. Something is clearly unsustainable with that formula. Like the virus, the longer we wait to take action, the more expensive it is and t…

> I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change.

I wish people would not try to use one crisis as a justification for claiming another. Not everyone agrees that climate change is "the next looming crisis".

The reason we know COVID-19 is a crisis is that we can directly measure the impact. We don't have to rely on questionable computer models projecting things decades into the future. (And I don't just mean climate models--we also have to have economic and sociological models to estimate the impacts of what the climate models predict and calculate the net benefits vs. costs. Not all impacts of climate change are harmful. And if you really believe we have economic and sociological models that can make predictions decades into the future with enough accuracy to justify multi-trillion-dollar policy decisions, I have some oceanfront property in Tibet I'd like to sell you.)

Directly measuring the impact of COVID-19 means we can test the predictions of people who projected various possible scenarios for how such a crisis would play out, and what kinds of actions in response would have what kinds of consequences. It's too early at this point to run all those tests, but when things are back to approximately normal we should definitely run those tests and assess the results. That will help us to be better prepared next time. It will also help us to see what kinds of behaviors we should discourage on the part of major actors who have a stake in trying to spin the public's perceptions. And it will also show us where our infrastructure is fragile so we can take steps to make it more robust, which will put us in a better position to respond to any future crisis.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#146

Post by ken »

tomp wrote: post #136
twblalock wrote: post #126

This situation makes me more pessimistic about solving global climate change. The economic damage caused by "shelter in place" falls disproportionately on the poor and the lower middle class, who work in fields where working from home is not possible. Emission regulations and fuel taxes also fall disproportionately on the same people, because they can't afford newer cars which are more efficient. When the French gove…

The answer is, obviously, combining climate policy with populism. Tax CO2 / fuel / packaging / consumption / transport as much as you want, but spend that tax money on a UBI-like benefit. That by definition helps lowest earners the most, plus makes sure the government doesn’t waste the money.

That only works within one jurisdiction. What about when the rich/poor divide are not constituents of one government, but the average citizens in two different countries?

The U.S. couldn't even ratify Kyoto, and that only required (AFAICT) monetary payments for climate technology, not UBI. I can't imagine any scenario in my lifetime in which the U.S. Congress would approve a treaty which required UBI payments to people in developing countries.

As a human, I think that's an interesting idea that deserves serious consideration. As a citizen of a developed country whose government can't even agree to provide healthcare for its own people, I think it has no chance.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#147

Post by fjk123 »

arrosenberg wrote: post #112
cat199 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> democratic values devils advocate, but if it ends up that democratic states don't handle the response as well as authoritarian ones out of differing views of individual rights, this isn't necessarily a 'win' for the democratic side of the fence

You'd also have to acknowledge that the (Chinese) authoritarian response is what allowed the outbreak to get this bad in the first place. In the United States the Federal response has looked much more like the authoritarian response — no action for regular people, misdirection, profiteering, and grabbing for more power. Compared to the responses we saw under more democratic government against Zika, Ebola, Avian Flu,…

responding the most is not the same as responding the best. Time will tell. But given that many if not most people want to limit shutdowns, the above is a technocratic opinion, not a democratic one.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#148

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

convolvatron wrote: post #8
admax88q wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt the shutdown will be long enough to have significant long term impact. But maybe it will give people an appreciation for how nice the world can be with less pollution. A shift in attitude could cause long term changes in our tolerance for pollution.

maybe it will also serve as a reminder that there are things outside the economy that we should really be taking care of

And as a reminder that we don't need as much "stuff" as we think we do.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#149

Post by the_monster »

specialist wrote: post #49
gdubs wrote: post #4

I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change. On Bloomberg radio a few weeks ago, an analyst / money manager was talking about how his firm was looking at satellite imagery of pollution in China to measure their economic recovery. More pollution == “better”. Something is clearly unsustainable with that formula. Like the virus, the longer we wait to take action, the more expensive it is and t…

Tangentially, this crisis may accelerate transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Reduced demand lowers both prices and cash flow. Many operators will no longer be able to service their debts. Resulting in bankruptcy. Coal was already in a downward spiral. Now that crude oil is down to $30, fracking is no longer viable. IIRC, Shale was off the board at $60/barrel. Etc. Even more tangentially: I support keeping our…

Seems this is the strategy Saudi Arabia is adopting. They don't care anymore if the barrel of oil is 20$ because they are among the very few who can still benefit from such a low price.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#150

Post by akiselev »

kube-system wrote: post #121
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technology must be the answer here. This doesn't require new technology. We know how to make electric cars, electric heat pumps, solar panels, nuclear reactors etc. This is all existing technology. But take a look at oil prices right now. That's what happens if you start to reduce world demand for oil, and that's the real problem. All we need from governments is to put a sufficient tax on carbon that keeps carbon m…

> This doesn't require new technology. We know how to make electric cars, electric heat pumps, solar panels, nuclear reactors etc. This is all existing technology. We have some of the problems solved. While batteries are energy dense enough to support passenger cars, there's still a lot of progress to be made before the tech can meet the demands of shipping/bulk-cargo/intercontinental transport. For example, batterie…

> For example, batteries still need to be 20 times more dense before we can build a cargo/passenger aircraft with one.

Significantly more than 20 times I'd bet. The airframe will have to be significantly reinforced to support a design where the maximum takeoff weight is equal to the maximum landing weight. At that point, aerodynamics start to look a lot more like a rocket equation where you can't dump stages.

I think medium to long term, nuclear or renewable powered synthetic fuel is far more likely, especially since we already have a lot of generic infrastructure applicable to fossil fuels and carbon taxes could be the thing that pushes synthetic fuel into the market.

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