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Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

nytimes.com

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Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#71

Post by ipodopt »

My understanding is that pollution has a short term (~weeks) cooling effect due to global dimming, and a long term (~decades) warming effect due to the greenhouse effect.

So this may cause a short term spike in global temperatures over the next few months. If this goes on long enough it could paradoxically accelerate climate change.

Maybe we need a well place and timed nuke on the moon to compensate.

EDIT: On the other hand increased sunlight may boost photosynthesis. All in all should be intresting to see the effect. Because it may show that we need to be more careful about mitigating certain types to pollutants (CO2) first and leaving others for later.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#72

Post by mkagenius »

aunetx wrote: post #33
fyrefoxboy12 wrote: post #29

unintended good news consequence. earth is gonna have a great few months now. maybe a year. less consumption, less traveling, less pollution. nature rejoices

Yeah but for how long?

He literally started with "how long" part

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#74

Post by leetcrew »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #9
gdubs wrote: post #4

I’ve been thinking a lot about the next looming crisis: Climate Change. On Bloomberg radio a few weeks ago, an analyst / money manager was talking about how his firm was looking at satellite imagery of pollution in China to measure their economic recovery. More pollution == “better”. Something is clearly unsustainable with that formula. Like the virus, the longer we wait to take action, the more expensive it is and t…

Wow. Wouldn't want to invest with that money manager. If that signal wasn't already well known, giving away secret sauce in a public interview is not a recipe for outsize returns. But it is a well known signal so it's even less useful for investing. If I've learned anything about the climate crisis from COVID-19, it's that we aren't going to solve the climate crisis unless it's more convenient to do so than not. COVI…

satellite imagery is already a common tool used by hedge funds. the correlation between pollution and productivity is also an obvious one. it's an interesting tidbit for laymen, but he's not giving away anything specific enough to be used by adversaries.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#75

Post by alok-g »

zaroth wrote: post #11
nicoburns wrote: post #3

Is anyone else wondering if the shutdown for COVID-19 will have a significant impact on carbon emissions? If it does, then it could actually save far more lives than it takes.

A population’s physical health is very highly correlated with their economic health. [1] If COVID-19 has a significant impact on carbon emissions it’s because it caused significant economic depression. A significant economic depression dramatically increases poverty levels, and increasing poverty would cost significantly more lives even than will be lost to COVID itself. [2] The life expectancy gap between the poores…

Thanks. This is such a useful and insightful comment, @zaroth.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#76

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

leetcrew wrote: post #74
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. Wouldn't want to invest with that money manager. If that signal wasn't already well known, giving away secret sauce in a public interview is not a recipe for outsize returns. But it is a well known signal so it's even less useful for investing. If I've learned anything about the climate crisis from COVID-19, it's that we aren't going to solve the climate crisis unless it's more convenient to do so than not. COVI…

satellite imagery is already a common tool used by hedge funds. the correlation between pollution and productivity is also an obvious one. it's an interesting tidbit for laymen, but he's not giving away anything specific enough to be used by adversaries.

I think my concern would only be if he believes using that info could give him an edge. There are plenty of people, including many professional investment advisers, who believe that the obvious use of public info can give you the ability to outperform. If he's just explaining the relationship between economic output and pollution it's all good.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#77

Post by adrianN »

Sileni wrote: post #28
deevolution wrote: post #19

So far, the COVID-19 pandemic is showing us that People, rather than Consumption, matter most. We need consumption to support people, yes, but Economic expansion and increasing consumption can't go on infinitely. Most people shouldn't be able to afford a car - they should be taking public transit - but they can obtain one because they take out loans. The american fracking industry shouldn't exist, but it can because…

>Most people shouldn't be able to afford a car - they should be taking public transit - but they can obtain one because they take out loans. A car isn't a "want" for most people outside of major US cities. It's a need. Public transport has never been effective in most of the US. Hell, I'd have to cross an interstate on foot in order to reach work. How many weeks do you estimate it'd take me to get killed? Should I be…

Traffic infrastructure can be changed. It takes a couple of decades, but it has happened in other cities before.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#78

Post by ich_bin_abe »

briefcomment wrote: post #22
amelius wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The world has pressed the pause button for a moment. Well so far it has only been 1 or 2 weeks, comparable to the annual X-mas break in duration. So I'm curious: are the effects really significantly different here so far?

I wouldn't think Christmas is similar to these past two weeks in terms of volume driven. Many people still drive to work during Christmas, and some even drive more, to get to relatives' places. Not to mention, air travel probably rises significantly. Right now, car travel and air travel are low.

Yes. Actually during Christmas break, me and my friends in Michigan drive A LOT!! For breakfast coffees, then casual hangouts at places like zoos/museums, then for lunch, then for coffee again, then for dinner, all of us in separate cars.

Of. course that's not everyday, but it's many days. When we're back home from college, it's nice to see the friends from back home, and often it will involve all of us driving separate cars. This is I believe archetypical of the Midwest.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#79

Post by adrianN »

vinniejames wrote: post #47

Looks like we've found the solution to global warning. All it took was a government mandate that folks who can and should be working from home do so. Hopefully we all have the common sense to continue this long term, mother earth deserves a break

I hope you realize that working from home when possible is great for the climate but in no way solves the global warming problem. We need to go carbon negative in the next few decades. You don't achieve that by having some fraction of the office workers work from home.

Re: Traffic and Pollution Plummet as U.S. Cities Shut Down

#80

Post by leetcrew »

briefcomment wrote: post #68
erik_seaberg wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the people working from home are outnumbered by the people who can't work and are quickly going broke.

No one's disputing that. It makes sense that if people who can work home do so, the environment will be better than if they don't work from home. Also, many people who cannot work from home at the moment are still driving to work (restaurant workers, grocery store workers, other retail). This current situation isn't too far off from a state where just those who can work from home do so, and the rest drive to work. An…

> This current situation isn't too far off from a state where just those who can work from home do so, and the rest drive to work.

it seems pretty very far off to me. I'm having a nice time working from home, but all my friends that don't work at a grocery store (restaurant workers, tutors, social workers, theater techs) are sitting at home not getting paid.

I'm not sure how to estimate what fraction of the workforce actually needs to commute to work, but it seems like they make up a pretty significant amount of the people that are not driving right now.

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