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Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

globalhealthnow.org

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Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#111

Post by pstuart »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #93
kevingadd wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan was super authoritarian in recent memory [1], so it's understandable that someone would think it's still true (of course, it's not). Maybe the confusion is because some of their disease mitigation strategies were authoritarian, but that's pretty common in war/disaster scenarios. Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipme…

> Every country turns authoritarian when they need people to shelter in place or need to force factories to retool to build war equipment or medical essentials. Those who survive this pandemic will look back and wish it was true . Right now, neither the US nor the EU are authoritarian enough . There should have been lockdowns in place a week ago, actually enforced by the military . I'm surprised to find myself believ…

They want to suspend habeas corpus, and with an administration that is more than happy to lock up people it doesn't like that is not the right path.

If there were competent administrators at the helm, it would make more sense.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#112

Post by graeme »

fulafel wrote: post #80
samsonradu wrote: post #76

My knowledge about industrial manufacturing is slim to none so can someone explain please why is it not possible to (globally) ramp up production of face masks and ventilators to a virtually unlimited quantity? What exactly is the bottleneck? Are we lacking materials, labour or the technical know-how? Are the factories currently producing them so advanced and hard to reproduce?

Same as many other problems (eg global warming) - the market economy can't deliver a solution because it's not short teem profitable for the relevant actors.

This is incorrect. Someone else in the thread posted the article below. It explained the problem thusly:

1. To make masks, you need a certain fabric

2. The machines to make more of the fabric take 5-6 months to make, and this is a hard limit as they’re quite complex

Basically, all the money in the world likely couldn’t expand capacity of this vital fabric. A Chinese Petroleum company is trying to make new machines quickly, but those in the industry are skeptical.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/8149292...

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#113

Post by throwaway_pdp09 »

raverbashing wrote: post #79
samsonradu wrote: post #76

My knowledge about industrial manufacturing is slim to none so can someone explain please why is it not possible to (globally) ramp up production of face masks and ventilators to a virtually unlimited quantity? What exactly is the bottleneck? Are we lacking materials, labour or the technical know-how? Are the factories currently producing them so advanced and hard to reproduce?

I think you can ramp production of those but it will still require people to work them and the most severe cases are still fatal even with the ventilators.

AKA there's no 100% guarantee for anything.

Your point being what?

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#114

Post by matwood »

nikofeyn wrote: post #69
_bxg1 wrote: post #41

This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. I don't feel like we've seen humanity at its best in several decades. Shame it always takes a catastrophe (and an immediate one at that; see climate change) to bring it out.

> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. would you mind elaborating? because i find it extremely difficult how one could hold such an optimistic and apparent naive opinion. from where i sit, this crisis is showing the exact opposite. there is very little international communication and cooperation,…

I think you're paying too much attention to Trump and politics. The people actually getting work done are cooperating and moving at a pace that has really never been done. The articles I've read and podcasts I've heard with scientist all echo the same sentiment. Ignore Trump and the politics, the science is happening at a pace unseen before.

> the while thing has just been wave after wave of delayed and reactive actions that were underprepared to begin with.

I do agree the US has been slow to ramp up, but that is quickly changing. Although, I would once again offer up to ignore Trump and watch the governors. They have been acting quickly and decisively.

Underprepared with respect to supplies is always easy to say in hindsight because now we know the war we are fighting. There is a saying that armies are always tooled to fight the last war. Until you know what the next war will be, it's impossible to fully prepare.

> if everyone on earth just sat still for a couple of weeks, this thing would just vanish.

IMO, that is naive and optimistic. The problem, for lack of a better word, is that the large majority of cases (80-90%?) are mild. For many, it's mild enough that they would have not deviated from their normal routine. Once this thing escaped China, and definitely once it got out of SEA, it was going to be incredibly hard to stomp out without herd immunity either through infection or vaccine.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#115

Post by fallingknife »

kevingadd wrote: post #78
_bxg1 wrote: post #41

This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. I don't feel like we've seen humanity at its best in several decades. Shame it always takes a catastrophe (and an immediate one at that; see climate change) to bring it out.

This crisis has mostly been a massive demonstration of how capitalism undermines society's ability to prevent and cope with disasters. We're seeing individual people show their best while profit motive leads to people sabotaging others' hope of success. A few examples: * A particular politician prioritizing low numbers (to look good) over actual infection reduction * A particular government not issuing orders for nee…

Which non-capitalist countries have handled it better?

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#116

Post by lnsru »

funcDropShadow wrote: post #98
gingerlime wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it’s OT but would love to understand more about the health insurance situation in Germany and what’s happened in the last 20 years. Ideally in English which is a big ask I guess. Moved to Germany in 2011 and still can’t work out the whole insurance thing (and don’t understand German enough to read and figure those nuances)

To make it short, 20 years ago most hospitals were privatized, before they were run by universities, cities, and states and some other public actors. There were already some private hospitals, but not too much. Since, then most hospitals were sold to companies or in the better case transformed into companies, partly owned by their previous owner. Companies optimize for revenue, so they don't spend money on stocks of…

I have public health insurance, but if you need some better treatment you can always pay for it by yourself. Some minor surgery for 300€ isn’t big deal. Or one can get additional insurance packages to mandatory insurance for all the special needs. My all older colleagues tell me, that private insurance is kind of scam. You pay almost nothing when you are young, but with age it costs more and more. You pay for kids on top and barely get better treatment than regular insured.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#117

Post by matwood »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #38

I don't see why people think we will hold out 18 months for a vaccine to be developed and tested, society would fall apart by then. I don't see it lasting longer than 2-3 months quarantine and then the common people will just go out anyway, especially in the USA where there's not much of a safety net.

I don't think anyone is expecting an 18 month quarantine (and no country in the world has a safety net for people to sit home for 18 months). I expect 2-4 weeks at best in an attempt to 'flatten the curve', and then isolation of vulnerable population going forward. The spread will also slow as more and more people have the mild version and can no longer be a vector.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#118

Post by thrav »

funcDropShadow wrote: post #77
nikofeyn wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This crisis is the first event in my lifetime that's given me any optimism about our ability, as a global civilization, to solve problems and get things done. would you mind elaborating? because i find it extremely difficult how one could hold such an optimistic and apparent naive opinion. from where i sit, this crisis is showing the exact opposite. there is very little international communication and cooperation,…

If you are focused on the U.S., then I understand your sentiment. But if you look beyond, it is really promising. Medical science and biology are producing new scientific knowledge about CoViD-19 and SARS-Cov2 at break neck speed. That alone is amazing to see. On the other hand, you really see that people get it and that they have to do social distancing to help them and everybody else. On top of that you see, e.g. C…

Unemployment in the United States is not like unemployment anywhere else in the world. This situation is exposing all of the gaping holes in the American system.

Mass layoffs already, leading to mass loss of health insurance, and bills for COVID treatment already surfacing in the many thousands of dollars.

If people start to have trouble putting food on the table, shit could get ugly real fast.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#119

Post by zzzcpan »

fulafel wrote: post #108
kjaftaedi wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regular masks it is possible to ramp up production. N95 masks, it is not easily possible to ramp up production in a short time frame. This article explains it well: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/16/8149292...

N95 just means anything that can filter out 95% of nacl in a specific test, the implementation is not constrained to this type of fabric. There are other ways of doing it.

Right. I'd say polypropylene spunbond-meltblown-spunbond design is just a safe choice for non-reusable medical masks. It's not necessary, and especially for general population, for that just spunbond alone should be enough which is in abundance and there are other polymers too. And the masks should be treated as reusable outside of hospitals, polypropylene is safe to boil.

Re: Covid-19’s stop-gap solution until vaccines and antivirals are ready

#120

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bad_user wrote: post #71
baxtr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I agree, unfortunately. Best examples: To my best knowledge no other European country has pledged massive help to Italy. China did a bit.

The EU did not have strategic reserves for a pandemic. This took us all by surprise and the speed with which this evolved into a clusterfuck was breathtaking. Everyone has been freaking out about their own situation. Nobody has enough masks, ventilators, hospital beds or trained staff. Consider that the first cases in Rome were confirmed on January 31 to my knowledge. We are less than 2 months in. Also this news abou…

Why do you say it's probably fake news? China's aid to Italy is well-documented and widely reported; do you know of other stories where the EU has provided a comparable amount of aid?
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