Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#81

Post by vasilipupkin » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:28 PM UTC

tasogare wrote: post #46

thelittleone wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent some time in Japan for work and was always amazed how many people had face masks on (even when there is no pandemic) and the prevalent of wearing gloves (driving etc). With my limited time there it seemed to be one of the most proactively sanitary cultures I’ve seen. Also it seemed to me that at business meetings generally people bow instead of shaking hands. And I wonder if this reflects the general approach…

You can’t find masks anywhere since more than a month. Few people wear them (I would say about 30%). Granted, people have less physical contact. The real reason for the low number of cases is the lack of tests. I’ve spoken today with multiple Japanese friends and other residents, all think the government is lying and hiding it to save the Olympics. We will see the truth in a month...

agree, we will know in a month, but even if govt is lying about cases, we should be seeing a deluge of patients in the ICUs and rise in deaths and we aren't seeing that

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#82

Post by lopis » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:29 PM UTC

_9ijd wrote: post #75

_9ijd wrote: post #57

I’m here in japan and have been trying to find an answer to this for the past week. It has to be the masks.

To elaborate, yes Japanese are pretty clean by nature and do have social distancing naturally, but everyone is still taking the subway, the government has not cracked down much. Ubiquitous wearing of masks is the only really unique thing i can think of. (Actually even now not everyone is wearing them, but its still a good percentage and as soon as Japanese feel sick they wear masks) So I’ve come to the conclusion tha…

Riding the subway doesn't make you sick. Not washing your hands and then touching your face with hands that have the virus from touching parts of the train makes you sick. You can't touch your face much if you have a mask on it. The virus doesn't just float around in the air. It only exists in water particles that fall quickly onto surfaces.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#83

Post by xenospn » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:31 PM UTC

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Counter point: My Japanese friends have been and still are going out to bars every night like nothing happened.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#84

Post by KarlKemp » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:32 PM UTC

eldavido wrote: post #21

deelowe wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

Because different environments yield different behavior. Just like in finance or business. I feel like we've grown accustomed to a world where money is readily available (low interest rates), there's relative peace/safety, little trade friction, and we can ship things around the world cheaply. Maybe we need to let the pendulum swing back a bit and do a little more manufacturing in the US? The problem is that it proba…

There’s enough manufacturing capacity in the US to produce plenty of ventilators, masks, and and test kits.

But nobody took the warnings serious in January and connected enough dots to think of ramping up production. Even now, nobody seems to be in charge. There are manufacturers on Twitter claiming they’re ready to produce masks but are being asked to apply for certification by mail.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#85

Post by hyperman1 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:32 PM UTC

scythe wrote: post #14

Is it really so outlandish to blame the masks? Relative to Westerners, East Asians seem to wear a lot more masks, and are willing to improvise. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/25/national/japan-... > A tweet from the Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department’s Disaster Response Division (@MPD_bousai) offers advice on how to wear masks and dispose of them properly, while a free DIY mask instruction manual is avai…

Belgium here. My wife is creating a mask right now, based on free internet instructions. She is not alone in our neighbourhood, and I see masked people at our bakery. I'd say we're not there yet, but learning very fast.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#86

Post by foota » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:34 PM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #83

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Counter point: My Japanese friends have been and still are going out to bars every night like nothing happened.

Maybe this shows the relative importance of different measures?

Not saying that we elsewhere should go out to bars, since we're thoroughly lacking in the other parts.

Edit: downthread people suggest a lack of testing, probably a better explanation.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#87

Post by klipt » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:35 PM UTC

xg15 wrote: post #67

deelowe wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

I wonder - there seem to be all kinds of studies going on about SARS-CoV-2 and results seem to spread fast in the current news climate. Are there studies for the effectiveness of masks planned or going on as well?

This article says one study estimates 5 fold reduction: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/...

If that reduces the R infection ratio 5-fold, it would drop below 1 and change exponential growth into exponential decay.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#88

Post by luspr » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:35 PM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #83

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Counter point: My Japanese friends have been and still are going out to bars every night like nothing happened.

Why shouldn't they? There are probably no cases in the community.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#89

Post by kamikaz1k » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:36 PM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #83

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Counter point: My Japanese friends have been and still are going out to bars every night like nothing happened.

I have heard the same from a Japanese friend, not in a major city either. Seems even families are going about normally with their children, to McDonald's and such.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#90

Post by mattkrause » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:38 PM UTC

ppod wrote: post #15

bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

I think that as long as the availablity of tests is finite, this is a complicated process. Probably the goal should be to optimise for true positives: of the people that have the virus, we want to find as many as possible. In that case, if there is a limitation on the number of tests that can be performed each day, it does make sense to give those tests to the people who are most likely to be positive. Unless some pe…

I think it's more complicated than that and the people decrying "wasted" negative tests are [redacted] idiots.

If you're at home with what appears to be a relatively mild case of COVID, testing you doesn't tell us much right now[0]. Isolate yourself, even from your cohabitants, and scrub everything like the dickens when you feel better. You should be doing this anyway, even if it's "just" the flu.

Testing people that were around you, however, is critical for preventing the virus from spreading. This is especially true for people are asymptomatic or presymptomatic but nevertheless shed the virus.

[0] This might change in the future as we learn more about if and how long the immunity lasts; perhaps you could go back to work. Hopefully sereological testing will fill that gap soon.