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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#451

Post by imtringued »

nostromo wrote: post #214
Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's Red Cross supposedly advised Italy yesterday that 'total economic shutdown'[1] is the only way to contain the COVID-19 situation in the country now. It all comes to what part of the curve the country is now, the choice being total lockdown incl. economic shutdown vs aggressive testing. Considering US lapsed on aggressive measures in the beginning and that proper test kits are just being flown in from Italy[2]…

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

I dislike this hyperbole. I still have electricity, running water, heating. Where is this stone age? Where is my cave?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#452

Post by ip26 »

nomad1987 wrote: post #413
kingaillas wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not even that old and this is the 3rd black swan event in the last 2 decades: terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001, financial meltdown in 2008-2009, and this 2020 global pandemic. There were also 3 other localized outbreaks (SARS in 2003, Swine Flu in 2009, MERS in 2012) so that to me sounds like we were 3 viral mutations away from this being the 4th global pandemic in 20 years. If we're structuring business and our ec…

The gains inbetween these events far outweigh the cost of the bailout no? Those who prepare well (3-6 months of reserves) will be ok, other businesses will need to perish to teach others a lesson.

The gains inbetween these events far outweigh the cost of the bailout no?

You are literally advocating "Privatize the gains, socialize the losses", no?

'It's ok that the (public) government bails them out, because the (private) companies made even more money'

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#454

Post by syshum »

enobrev wrote: post #441
syshum wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I am equally not sure why it is federal governments responsibility to help and direct In our system of government the State Governments are suppose to be the most powerful, not the federal government it is a Union of States after all. The fact that in the last 100 years or so we continually have centralized more and more power into the hands of the federal government is a huge issue, but instead of recognizing t…

That's fair, but this is exactly the sort of issue that needs to be orchestrated at a higher level. If Illinois handles this perectly somehow, but the surrounding states do not, then Illinois' efforts will be wasted and overcome by the neighbors. There's no way this sort of problem will be resolved without the entire country being on the same page for the solution. That's exactly the sort of thing the federal governm…

I am pretty sure we are going to disagree widely was to what "sorted out the problem" looks like in execution

Especially if you think Illinois is a model everyone should be following

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#455

Post by syshum »

zouhair wrote: post #390
kjksf wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about abstract "economic system". Let me put it in simple word: you'll loose your job. Your friends and family will loose their jobs. As a result, when your savings run out, you'll loose your appartement. And so will your friends and family. You won't be able to afford food without government assistance. And even if shutdown lasts only 30 days, it'll wreck the economy for a long time. Once a restaurant defau…

Why do we need jobs to survive? That alone is an insane system. We desperately need to separate work activity and survivability. Even without this pandemic, we live in a World where there is enough shelter, food and drugs for everyone but we still have homeless people, people starving or at the least malnourished and people dying in a rich country because they have to ration fucking insulin. This economic system is n…

Yep, this situation is a socialist wet dream

Of course socialism is a failed economic model but hey maybe this time it will work /s

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#456

Post by SamReidHughes »

ivalm wrote: post #345
SamReidHughes wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who do you think is loaning the money?

Capital market participants? Lots of people buy bonds... I am not sure where you are going

If they were taking money out of the company by buying back stocks and sucking it dry, who are the people loaning them money to do this? Your story implies they're throwing billions into these companies without expecting to get their money back.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#457

Post by 6510 »

chii wrote: post #281
danharaj wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one thing that this pandemic is teaching us is that most people's jobs do jack shit to maintain the basic needs of society, and the ones with important jobs are often paid the least.

> the ones with important jobs are often paid the least. that's the wrong way to think about it, and also a misunderstanding of economics. If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid, there won't be enough money for very many teachers. You'd find it hard to afford a teacher for your kids, let alone free education. A doctor, back in the middle ages, is only affordable to the nobility. These days, doctors are still quit…

CEO of what? Bullshit inc?

> If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid

You are thinking about it wrongly. We should pay the CEO the same as the teacher. Managing a bunch of adults can't possibly be harder than teaching children. Education is an actual investment. Bullshit inc not so much.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#458

Post by 6510 »

kjksf wrote: post #148
zouhair wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

It's not about abstract "economic system". Let me put it in simple word: you'll loose your job. Your friends and family will loose their jobs. As a result, when your savings run out, you'll loose your appartement. And so will your friends and family. You won't be able to afford food without government assistance. And even if shutdown lasts only 30 days, it'll wreck the economy for a long time. Once a restaurant defau…

We don't need restaurants. If you cook your own food the empployees can find a useful job. Until they do we can sustain them just like we could sustain them while doing useless work.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#459

Post by ivalm »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #456
ivalm wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital market participants? Lots of people buy bonds... I am not sure where you are going

If they were taking money out of the company by buying back stocks and sucking it dry, who are the people loaning them money to do this? Your story implies they're throwing billions into these companies without expecting to get their money back.

My story does not imply that at all. Prevailing interest rates are low so investors seeking returns are willing to take increased risks, especially if the bond is still prime (so as to match their mandate). Thus the rise of BBB. At the same time, bond ratings underestimate fragility of corporate debt (what's new, history is littered with "bond ratings underestimated fragility of X"). Combined with a bunch of moral hazard on the part of people packaging everything, you have the current situation. Basically, I fundamentally blame ultra low interest rates for creating incentives, but a more proximate cause is debt financing of buybacks.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#460

Post by enobrev »

syshum wrote: post #454
enobrev wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair, but this is exactly the sort of issue that needs to be orchestrated at a higher level. If Illinois handles this perectly somehow, but the surrounding states do not, then Illinois' efforts will be wasted and overcome by the neighbors. There's no way this sort of problem will be resolved without the entire country being on the same page for the solution. That's exactly the sort of thing the federal governm…

I am pretty sure we are going to disagree widely was to what "sorted out the problem" looks like in execution Especially if you think Illinois is a model everyone should be following

I'm pretty sure you're aware that was hypothetical.
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