Live data from Hacker News

Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

61–70 of 430 posts

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#61
post #3

This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.

People in Japan pack pretty close together on public transit and that probably offsets whatever other social distancing is going on there.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#62
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wouldn't hide it at all. Shifting an exponential curve gives you another exponential curve.

This is only true over the reals, not over integers. People are integers.

People are complex, and often irrational.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#63
post #2

In South Korea epidemic was started with one sick cult member spreading it to wast number of people. In Italy the person who started Lombardy cluster was first asymptomatic for weeks, was later misdiagnosed and spreading the disease in hospital. It seems that the epidemic is starting without similar super-spreaders in Japan. Case fatality deaths to recovered rate in Japan is 18%. In South Korea it's 6.6%. This might…

Could be that social norms of Japan make the exponent approximately 1. It's a stretch, but not impossible.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#64
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHO: * wearing mask does nothing and... * workers desperately need mask this is the problem when you lie to your audience to achieve some end. Your message not only gets disregarded but you don't actually achieve what you were trying to achieve with your lie in the first place. We are all lucky to have Tedros as our one-world doctor.

I think the masks make the most difference when the sick people wear them, which is probably happening in Japan I guess.

Masks on sick people probably have the most impact when sick people wear them before they realize they're sick.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#65
This is what patio11 had to say about it:

"I will say this: when Japan had major natural disasters in 2011 I praised the response and wrote a long blog post about how things were much better than commonly believed.

I have written no such post this year. That is not because of insufficient personal interest in the topic."

https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241103181511180288

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#66
post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

I have no real data to back this up, but it could also be that there's a lower number of comorbidity across the average population. Or it could be that Japanese have perfected 'social distancing'.

Age is the best correlating factor right now. They are prime for an outbreak demographic wise.

>http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#67
post #12
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

I wonder - there seem to be all kinds of studies going on about SARS-CoV-2 and results seem to spread fast in the current news climate. Are there studies for the effectiveness of masks planned or going on as well?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#68
I think this is a good question. Here are some random observations on Japan:

1. Japan, Tokyo area in particular, is crowded but clean and neat.

2. The Japanese, contradicting western prejudice, are not particular healthy. Lots of heavy drinking and smoking.

3. The Japanese never did a China travel ban. Lots of trade with and tourism from China.

I personally guess the answer to the question is that they did very good testing and contact tracing wrt. COVID19 and do not have the same testing bottlenecks as other countries.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#69
It's because they acted early. All the epidemiological models show that if you lock down when there are only a handful of cases, the disease can be managed effectively. There is no mystery to this, it's because they "overreacted" by closing borders and schools when the West was still telling people not to, and now they can relax the restrictions.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#70
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHO: * wearing mask does nothing and... * workers desperately need mask this is the problem when you lie to your audience to achieve some end. Your message not only gets disregarded but you don't actually achieve what you were trying to achieve with your lie in the first place. We are all lucky to have Tedros as our one-world doctor.

Those two things can both be true in a way: if an untrained person uses masks in non-high risk situations they may gain no significant benefit and even cause more harm by causing supply pressure.

I don´t disagree. But one face mask has a mayor benefit on a doctor or nurse and minimal effect on a regular person. But millions of masks on millions of people may have a major effect in the pandemic.
Post reply on HN