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Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

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Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#131

Post by AtlasBarfed »

entee wrote: post #19

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the…

I will say the US healthcare system and its lack of hospital beds per population is making our lives worse. South Korea apparently has 12 beds per 1000 people, and, wouldn't you know it, the US is terrible, and even worse when considering our expense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...

We all will suffer drastic economic effects from the vampires that have made our healthcare system a worldwide embarrassment.

We are LUCKY that this is a 1-4% kill rate disease. If this were a REAL deadly pandemic like smallpox or black death, we'd be totally screwed, and even more screwed due to our healthcare system actively discouraging people from using it, trusting it, or listening to it.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#132

Post by levleontiev »

gaoryrt wrote: post #91
sergiotapia wrote: post #76

Yes we are. I want you to keep this fact in mind: We don't know how many people are infected. We only the number from people who go in to get checked. For all you know there's a ton of people with a slight flu that are now fine. My son and myself had a pretty rough cough and fever Feb 30. Could that have been the chinese virus? We don't know. Extrapolate. Based on everything I've read there's two schools of thought:…

I feel offended as a Chinese when you call it 'Chinese virus'. I think you were blaming Chinese people for whatever reason, even you didn't mean to. You don't want to lose your family or friends, or suffering in economic recession. We don't want it too.

Wasn't China the origin of this virus? Wasn't that Chinese people who have brought infected bats to a place with thousands of people?

Everybody clearly understands that it was not intent, but rather an occasion. However, different nations have their sins, this is yours.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#133

Post by graycat »

Schaulustiger wrote: post #21

Regarding your question about if we might accidentally test for flu or other, already existing corona virii: This was a topic of discussion in yesterday's talk [1] with Dr. Drosten, a virologist who played an important part in the development of the currently used PCR test. He said that there were extensive studies done with hundreds of samples from both flu patients and patients infected with other corona virii and…

I was talking in general, a little more specifically about the news media, and not at all about Dr. Drosten.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#134

Post by thu2111 »

biolurker1 wrote: post #128
thu2111 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? Being a truly evil Devil's advocate for a moment: 1. Because it's not actually overwhelmed. See this discussion from 2 days ago about a Reuters report where the head of ICU for Lombardy says nobody has been turned away due to lack of beds: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 2. Because ICU demand expands to meet available capacity as no…

This is equivalent to all the thousands of lies Trump said during three years. It's so unscientific and dangerous I wish you didn't belong to this community. This analysis will kill people and is equivalent to convincing people to stop chemo.

Dude, get a grip. In the unlikely event a random HN comment out of thousands has any impact at all, this sort of analysis will save people, as more accurate knowledge about the state of the world always does.

You're forgetting that people are being asked to self-triage on a massive scale. I've seen a ton of false information about hospital capacity on HN in the last few days. Panic is contagious so a report like "hospitals in Lombardy may soon run out of capacity" gets changed within hours to "Italy ran out of capacity days ago" despite being false. Yes, I've seen that here on HN just within the last few days, and many similar examples.

What happens if people wrongly think their hospitals can't take them? They either won't go or they'll go much later than they should have done, by which time they may require much more intensive care. If people accurately understand the state of play they can self-triage far more efficiently and safely. They can also push back against the mass hysteria that is quite visibly setting in, leading to better and more rational decisions that will end the epidemic quicker.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#135

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

sergiotapia wrote: post #92
gaoryrt wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel offended as a Chinese when you call it 'Chinese virus'. I think you were blaming Chinese people for whatever reason, even you didn't mean to. You don't want to lose your family or friends, or suffering in economic recession. We don't want it too.

That's ridiculous, we call it the chinese virus just like the spanish flu was called "spanish flu". It's called that because of it's place of origin.

I'm not sure anyone knows where the "Spanish" Flu originated, but it may in fact have the US. It was certainly spread by US troops. The only reason it is called "Spanish" Flu is because it happened during WW I and neutral Spain was the only country reporting it in the press, as opposed to US, UK, etc which were censoring the news so as not to look weak during wartime.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#136

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

zabana wrote: post #117
Zardoz84 wrote: post #13

Well, with Madrid hospitals very near of collapsing and a death tool around 1000 persons, I think that I can say that we aren't overreacting.

but how do these numbers compare to general flu fatality rates ?

Why do people keep wanting to compare this to the flu? It's a completely random choice of comparison. Flu is caused by the influenza virus, COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CV2 virus - a coronavirus closely related to the SARS-CV virus that caused SARS.

I guess if you are politically motivated then choosing a random non-scary disease like Flu to compare it to makes sense, but one might as well (perhaps with more justification) compare it to SARS and than panic and say "OMG it's already killed way more people than SARS!".

Rather than comparing COVID-19 to anything else, what really makes sense is to listen to the infectious disease experts (not politicians), and follow what's happening in other countries.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#137

Post by zabana »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #136
zabana wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but how do these numbers compare to general flu fatality rates ?

Why do people keep wanting to compare this to the flu? It's a completely random choice of comparison. Flu is caused by the influenza virus, COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CV2 virus - a coronavirus closely related to the SARS-CV virus that caused SARS. I guess if you are politically motivated then choosing a random non-scary disease like Flu to compare it to makes sense, but one might as well (perhaps with more justif…

It does not change the fact that there are other viruses which are far more deadly than SARS-CV2.

Should we go into full lockdown everytime there's an outbreak ? This is a very legitimate question to ask.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#138

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

zabana wrote: post #137
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people keep wanting to compare this to the flu? It's a completely random choice of comparison. Flu is caused by the influenza virus, COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CV2 virus - a coronavirus closely related to the SARS-CV virus that caused SARS. I guess if you are politically motivated then choosing a random non-scary disease like Flu to compare it to makes sense, but one might as well (perhaps with more justif…

It does not change the fact that there are other viruses which are far more deadly than SARS-CV2. Should we go into full lockdown everytime there's an outbreak ? This is a very legitimate question to ask.

That depends on what you mean by deadly .. percentage of deaths among people to get it, or absolute number of people who are likely to die from it.

SARS-CV2 may not have the % kill rate of SARS-CV1, or other nasties like Ebola, etc, but it has potential to kill a LOT of people due to it's specific nature:

- Many infected people are asymptomatic, so spread it unknowingly

- It has a fairly long incubation period, so even those that will show symptoms (allowing them to be isolated) don't initially

- Symptoms may be mild and confused with those of other diseases (such as flu!), resulting in failure to diagnose, hence allowing spread

- The percentage death rate appears nothing to be complacent about. The Princess Diamond "experiment" (with 100% testing) indicates about a 1% death rate (10x that of flu), while in Italy it's running at about 10% of detected cases.

- This is a novel virus to which we have no immunity. If it's still around next year things may be better (and better yet if we have a vaccine), but this year it'll be bad if not managed

Apparently what caused Trump to eventually take this seriously was an Imperial College, UK report indicating that "do nothing" would result in a couple of million deaths in USA.

Of course it's a legitimate question to ask if the cure is worse than the disease, but it's both politically and morally impossible not to act when you know you could save millions of lives.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-us-uk...

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#139

Post by enchiridion »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #121
TheCoelacanth wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10-15% of cases require hospitalization. The US has hospital beds for about 0.2% of the population, so possibly 10% or higher mortality rate.

To piggy back.. this gets really bad because you have the question: "How many people need critical care per year, or in a given month". Now, how many of these people die if there IS no critical care to give? No room in the inn so to speak? I'm sure they're working on jerryrigged work arounds like using schools and hotels, but still it's not the same as a real ICU... plus it's highly possible a lot of these people cou…

That's a good point. I think the recently recovered corona patients have a duty to give blood for this reason.

Re: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?

#140

Post by sjg007 »

zabana wrote: post #116

Can somebody with field expertise explain this to me: The mortality rate is said to be between 3 and 5%. Experts are also saying that it does not draw an accurate picture of the situation because people aren't being tested nearly as much as should be required. So the question then becomes, why aren't we ramping up tests among the general population to get a better idea of who to prioritise ? Surely if we know who nee…

We don't have enough biochemical reagents and kits to scale up the test. That's why you need the private companies to come online. Testing capacity should increase in the next 2 weeks though so maybe then they will get the economy moving again. Jack Ma is personally sending over 500k test kits but I am not sure if they are FDA approved etc... or when they will arrive.
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