211–220 of 253 posts
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We do not have tests. https://covidtracking.com/data/ We have tested 150K people. We have 327M people in the US, we have tested 0.00046% of the population. We do not have tests.
0.046% You didn’t multiply by 100 to change from per unit to per cent. Still bad though.
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If we look at the Spanish flu, which was worse than this, there wasn't much panic and the economy recovered fairly quickly. Here's a random article I found online arguing that we'd get better results (both for public health and the economy) by testing more and isolating the at-risk populations than by quaranting everyone: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pande...
Spanish flu was right after WWI. That affected economy and its recovery quite a lot.
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But how many of those people would have died anyway? Somebody over 80 has around a 10% chance of dying every year. Somebody over 80 with Corona has a 20% chance of dying, so the risk of dying is doubled.
This is an excellent point. I'm from Israel, and yesterday it was announced that the first corona victim has died. The poor guy was 88 years old, suffered from multiple background illnesses - and suffered a heart attack a few days before he died - it so happens that in addition to all of the above he had corona. Now, honestly - is this REALLY a corona victim? Now check the data from Italy - most deaths were like that…
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This is an excellent point. I'm from Israel, and yesterday it was announced that the first corona victim has died. The poor guy was 88 years old, suffered from multiple background illnesses - and suffered a heart attack a few days before he died - it so happens that in addition to all of the above he had corona. Now, honestly - is this REALLY a corona victim? Now check the data from Italy - most deaths were like that…
i don't understand why you got downvoted. We don't consider someone dying from a cold if he's 80yo with heart attack. We're introducing a novel way of counting casualities, and this is problematic whenever we want to account for the severity of the virus. Now on the other side, hospitals usually aren't flooded the way they are at the moment, or at least that's my impression. So there is definitely something special a…
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You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
Is there in any way a brighter side to this? Something I talk about a fair amount: It's incredibly hard to measure what didn't happen but should have. Humans are really bad at that, and understandably so. If we had adopted a lot of the practices being advocated currently and avoided the epidemic, no one would know or believe we had accomplished anything. Having a pandemic and defeating it is the only way humanity can…
I’d rather you not talk about your homeopathic alternative medicine in the time of a real medical threat.
Is there in any way a brighter side to this? Something I talk about a fair amount: It's incredibly hard to measure what didn't happen but should have. Humans are really bad at that, and understandably so. If we had adopted a lot of the practices being advocated currently and avoided the epidemic, no one would know or believe we had accomplished anything. Having a pandemic and defeating it is the only way humanity can…
> I give my child the sea salt and coconut oil like you’ve recommended I’d rather you not talk about your homeopathic alternative medicine in the time of a real medical threat.
I've seen citations for such. I don't happen to have them at my fingertips. But you (or anyone) can go looking for such if they are curious.
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>> And I am having serious misgivings about posting it, nonetheless, many people have expressed deep concerned, and I'm doing the same, only with actual data. There is no "actual data" in your comment above. There is a claim that you make that you have graphed some data, but no graphs and no data. Also, it doesn't take an epidemiologist to know that a non-epidemiologist should not play at epidemiology. The other post…
> There is no "actual data" in your comment above There is in http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#w which I said matches what I've found rather well. > The other poster doesn't have any responsibility to tell you "how to model the data better". Yes he does,
But I'll try to help. You're looking at a graph of confirmed cases, in other words, positive test results.
That may be due to an increase in the number of infected people; or because the number of tests being performed is increasing, and therefore the percentage of infected people reported as confirmed cases is increasing; or because some positive test results (even with confirmation) are false positives. And there may be other causes that I don't know, because I'm not an epidemiologist either, just a statistics grad student.
Figuring out the the contribution of each cause is a job for the professionals.
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You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
Italy just had 793 deaths in one day. If you really want to "look at Italy" why are you ignoring all the Italian doctors?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-...
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-italy-doctor...
At the moment one Italian dies from covid-19 every two minutes. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51984399
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> There is in http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#w which I said matches what I've found rather well There may be data there, but if I understand you correctly you did not have it when you made your first post. It is therefore inadmissible evidence as to whether your first post was a reasonable thing to write. > Yes he does, If you have decided you want to be an epidemiologist, or at least to learn their skillset, w…
> but if I understand you correctly you did not have it when you made your first post correct > It is therefore inadmissible evidence as to whether your first post was a reasonable thing to write. Completely wrong. I approximated the lowest part of a logistic function with e^x, which is reasonable for small values. Given it matched well with professional epidemiologists' graphs, it suggests I'm getting it approximate…