Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#441

Post by enobrev » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:11 PM UTC

syshum wrote: post #408

enobrev wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree. That said, we tried the personal responsibility route, and then the bars packed up for St. Patrick's day and the airports ended up becoming giant petri dishes - literally overnight. And then many, many, many people decided that "don't panic" meant somewhere between clear all the shelves at every store and ignore the problem until it goes away. I don't envy the local governments trying to contain th…

Well I am equally not sure why it is federal governments responsibility to help and direct In our system of government the State Governments are suppose to be the most powerful, not the federal government it is a Union of States after all. The fact that in the last 100 years or so we continually have centralized more and more power into the hands of the federal government is a huge issue, but instead of recognizing t…

That's fair, but this is exactly the sort of issue that needs to be orchestrated at a higher level. If Illinois handles this perectly somehow, but the surrounding states do not, then Illinois' efforts will be wasted and overcome by the neighbors. There's no way this sort of problem will be resolved without the entire country being on the same page for the solution. That's exactly the sort of thing the federal government is good for.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#442

Post by stickfigure » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:12 PM UTC

sho wrote: post #315

stickfigure wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how you do your financial planning, but when I invest my money, I expect to see a return. I expect most folks do. Everything else falls out of that.

> when I invest my money, I expect to see a return If that return is at the cost of the stability and welfare of society at large then sorry, but no. No-one "deserves" a return and nothing happens in a vacuum. Larger society comes first, full stop. Seems this is a lesson we humans forget, and need to collectively and painfully relearn, every few decades.

Larger society comes first, full stop.

Ah, the rallying cry of 20th-century tyrants. You can justify just about anything with that statement.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#443

Post by danharaj » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:29 PM UTC

andbberger wrote: post #352

danharaj wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm more sanguine. I live on a busy Brooklyn street which is normally packed with people shoulder to shoulder during the day, and I will see maybe 5-10 people on the block at what should be the busiest time. I think it's like a 90%-95% reduction which is certainly substantial enough to quench the spread enough to reduce the shock hospitals are receiving. Doing my part (I have asthma), I haven't left the apartment sin…

> which is certainly substantial enough to quench the spread enough to reduce the shock hospitals are receiving. You absolutely do not know that and should not be saying any such thing with confidence!!!

I did not say eliminate the shock. I said reduce the shock. Epidemiological reports support the hypothesis that this level of social distancing is effective to reduce r. When exponential functions are involved, even small improvements pay off big in the long run.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#444

Post by Zach_the_Lizard » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:30 PM UTC

marvin wrote: post #362

totalZero wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quarantine doesn't send anyone to the stone age. The economic shock will be devastating. But there is no long-term, sustained growth without occasional pruning. Also... You make the error of assuming that (A) high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart disease mean that a person is "already dying," and (B) people who survive don't become debilitatingly sick.

Some of this economic damage is also the result of toppling imbalances that have been artificially propped up since before 2008. The virus is just a convenient excuse; a crisis would have hit at the first sign of trouble.

> The virus is just a convenient excuse; a crisis would have hit at the first sign of trouble.

Sure, the market was seeming to be overheated and due for a correction.

Without the virus, maybe it's 2008.

With the virus, it's starting to feel like 1929 again.

Huge numbers of people are unemployed right now that wouldn't be in a normal recession.

Wait till the unemployment numbers come out.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#445

Post by psfollow » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:16 PM UTC

solidasparagus wrote: post #162

sbashyal wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that nothing one could have done beforehand could fix that. The argument is not that there would not be a decline in share prices at all but the magnitude of it. You need to have enough saved to survive 6 months w/o income is preached a lot in personal finance and somehow this is not practiced for businesses.It is understandable that cash-strapped startups can't afford to do this but the companies buying b…

Massive publicly traded companies are not the companies that are collapsing. It's mostly small business that aren't publicly traded let alone doing buybacks.

But somehow, when all is said and done, companies like Boeing will not even face any consequence for their bad decisions.

When times are good, these companies divvy up the profits to give large bonuses.

When times are bad, they divvy up the bailout money to give smaller bonuses.

It certainly seems like there is no connection between compensation and performance once you are too big to fail.

And there is a very convenient "heads I win, tails you lose" structure in favor of the large companies.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#446

Post by miketery » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

iamleppert wrote: post #292

miketery wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there are advantages to having large / homogeneous / monolithic / centralized entities. There are also weaknesses in the face of some threat because there is no diversity to survive it.

I’m not sure I agree with the diversity argument. That argument is based on the biological principle of natural selection. However, an economy isn’t a biological system: its a man-made system that is designed and run by an intelligence, actually many intelligent agents working together. Biology is not designed or run by any intelligent agent that we know of. When people apply the diversity argument to non-biological…

My argument is a nature centric one, indifferent of biology. Biology is nature through carbon based life forms.

My argument still holds, if you over centralize or lack diversity (not in the social science race or sex based sense) then you’ll run into issues. Examples include Russian central governance, as opposed to more independent localized governance and sustainability. Another is non diverse economic production, for example many middle eastern countries.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#447

Post by MidnightRaver » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

Some people feel for dying Italians, some fear going outside so much their hands are shaking. But this really wrenches my gut : O

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#448

Post by WalterBright » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

danharaj wrote: post #434

chii wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the ones with important jobs are often paid the least. that's the wrong way to think about it, and also a misunderstanding of economics. If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid, there won't be enough money for very many teachers. You'd find it hard to afford a teacher for your kids, let alone free education. A doctor, back in the middle ages, is only affordable to the nobility. These days, doctors are still quit…

You literally cannot imagine an alternative to capitalism.

No need to imagine it. There are plenty of history books documenting life under those alternatives.

No thanks.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#449

Post by NotSammyHagar » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #313

nostromo wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

WHO director specifically mentioned in his briefing yesterday that 'Young people are not invincible and that data from many countries show number of cases below age It's not just fatalities, hospitalisation i.e. exhausting healthcare facilities is the primary concern with COVID-19. There is no guarantee that young people wouldn't make up high mortality list in a poor country with high younger population, rich countri…

Yes, thank you. So many people are confused about this just being about the # of people dying from covid. The entire health system gets knocked down and all the other preventable diseases that killed us before are no longer prevented.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#450

Post by rgbrenner » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

saiya-jin wrote: post #370

40four wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what? According to the Bloomberg article - ”As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.” They reached maxed capacity of beds or ventilators right? We read stories of doctors having to make life & death decisions. Where are the dead 18 year olds? Spreading info like that on a hunch, or an exaggeration,…

Current situation in Geneva, Switzerland - 2 critical male patients, one 27, one 29, no prior comorbidities at all. Not sure they will make it. Wife is a doctor and just checked this in their information system. The idea that relatively young (most of folks here) will be just fine is not true. With overwhelmed healthcare, most criticals will simply die. Once doctors will get sick (and they will), it will make everyth…

Two examples doesn't change the stats. There were 0.8% of deaths in Italy that did not have any prior comorbidities. Picking two of those examples does not increase the 0.8%.

I don't think any one is under some kind of delusion that some young people will die. The only question is what percentage and what changing those numbers will cost. Picking specific examples of bad outcomes and pretending the risk is as high as older people isn't doing anyone any favors.