Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#431

Post by DoreenMichele » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:24 PM UTC

barbs wrote: post #419

dang wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment breaks the site guidelines and you've done that elsewhere recently too. Would you please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here? Personal attacks are particularly not ok.

Apologies. I've been trying to combat tension and anxiety in my household regarding COVID-19 and I guess I lost my patience reacted poorly to negativity online. Will reign it in and think more before posting, if at all.

I'm sorry you are under so much stress.

I'm not being negative. I'm trying to provide solutions and hope.

I know a lot about coping effectively in the face of a high need for germ control. I've done remote work for years. Etc.

Maybe overlook the one sentence you focused on, go checkout gigworks, give me some constructive feedback (as penance ;).

The world has been on the brink before and gotten through it. It can be done.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#432

Post by sojournerc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:28 PM UTC

OGWhales wrote: post #213

twmahna wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Pretty sure you're misinformed on this point. The hedge fund sector that has gotten attention and partial blame for this meltdown is the risk-parity segment of hedge funds. These funds target a specific range of volatility, so when the market becomes wildly volatile they are forced to reduce their overall holdings. The entire risk-parity segment of the market is at most $400bn and they are levered 2-3x on average.…

As for your last point, there appears to be a black swan event quite regularly. It seems logical to prepare for this. Secondly, stock buy backs are often performed at horrible times simply because CEOs want to boost their own salary. This has repeatedly bitten them in the ass. This is what happens when short term gains are prioritized over long term strategy. So my question is, when do we learn?

If it's regular, by definition it is not a black swan.

What other events are you referring to?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#433

Post by whb07 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:57 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #120

whb07 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%. You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out. Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead. Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have…

China would have had those numbers if they didn’t quarantine a whole region for 3 months. They may still have those numbers after they lift the quarantine.

Quick now do the same for the 50 other countries nearby. What was their reason?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#434

Post by danharaj » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:03 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #281

danharaj wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one thing that this pandemic is teaching us is that most people's jobs do jack shit to maintain the basic needs of society, and the ones with important jobs are often paid the least.

> the ones with important jobs are often paid the least. that's the wrong way to think about it, and also a misunderstanding of economics. If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid, there won't be enough money for very many teachers. You'd find it hard to afford a teacher for your kids, let alone free education. A doctor, back in the middle ages, is only affordable to the nobility. These days, doctors are still quit…

You literally cannot imagine an alternative to capitalism.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#435

Post by ivalm » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:06 PM UTC

cameronbrown wrote: post #398

ivalm wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital market participants? Lots of people buy bonds... I am not sure where you are going

We are all loaning the money via fractional reserve banking and our pensions. "Shareholders" aren't just people in fancy suits.

I still don’t get your point? All I am saying companies shouldn’t debt finance buy backs. It doesn’t matter the source or target.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#436

Post by airstrike » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:12 PM UTC

digitaltrees wrote: post #430

mercutio2 wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have made dozens of posts repeating this argument. It’s just mathematically inaccurate. Modulo taxes, in liquid markets, existing shareholders are compensated identically with share buybacks and with reinvested dividends. If you wouldn’t have chosen to reinvest your dividends, you can sell a fraction of your shares to achieve the same effect. You may think there are social or cultural reasons why one return of ca…

I am not arguing they are mathematically identical. I am highlighting some of the meaningful differences. Stock buy backs make stock prices go up. Dividends do not. Stock buybacks have timing risk dividends do not. If an executive is paid in stock, and has compensation tied to stock price then there is an incentive to conduct stock buy backs and not issue dividends. Further, declaring a dividend sets future expectati…

Dividends also make prices go up. They're just priced in in advance. Look it up.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#437

Post by segmondy » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

Just a money grab by a special interest group - folks in the payment industry. Everyone is trying to figure out how to get their fingers on the $1 trillion that the Fed is handing out. This is saying, the SBA can't give out the money fast! Trust us acquirers/processors to do so! Give us the money and responsibility instead!

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#438

Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #190

daenz wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway. Is this true though? I'm not trying to be insensitive, but according to reports, ~15% of the infected need hospitalization, and the distribution of those people are mostly over 60[0]. Is having these people hospitalized on a large scale more detrimental to the economy than shutting everything down? Serious question. 0.…

The vast majority of people with COVID do not end up at the hospital. So it is absolute fact that we are sacrificing the economy in order to save, relatively speaking, a select few . If this continues for more than a few weeks - 50% of American business dies. 50% of America is unemployed. Contagion from massive defaults and write-offs spreads throughout the entire economy. Money printing at a rate heretofore unimagin…

I can’t believe you’re still here spouting off your half-baked opinions on this pandemic. A few weeks ago you were all over this site proclaiming this as overblown and no big deal. At what point will you admit that you have no idea what you’re talking about, and that you represent an extremely dangerous and irresponsible mindset that will ultimately cost millions of lives?

Seriously, you have zero expertise and you’ve been wrong about everything since the start. Please stop talking.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#439

Post by tathougies » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:22 PM UTC

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

I don't think this solution is sustainable either. It takes one bad apple to restart the exponential growth rate. Look at south Korea and patient 31.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#440

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

yread wrote: post #330

nostromo wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

Stop spreading this. Median hospitalization age is 65. 40% of patients on icu are under 50. With the rates of hospitalization in 30-39 year olds no country would have enough icu beds even for them

Parent was referring to fatality rates and you instead presented hospitalization rates, why do you want them to stop spreading fatality rate information?