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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses exist to make a profit for their shareholders. It is an insidious and morally bankrupt myth that this is the only purpose of a company.

I don't know how you do your financial planning, but when I invest my money, I expect to see a return. I expect most folks do. Everything else falls out of that.

This kind of thinking is why some of us are starting to talk about rolling out the guillotines.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#402

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Masks and gloves are ineffective for people who don't know how to use them -- wearing a mask? Great. Now you just felt hot and pulled the mask down onto your chin. Congratulations, the outside of the mask is no longer sterile. You're wearing gloves? Fabulous. Now you're out shopping pushing a cart and you just scratched your nose with your gloves. Cart handle is now contaminated or visa versa and gloves didn't change…

The effectiveness doesn't need to be perfect. If I'm now only 50% less contagious to others with my no-longer-sterile mask, that's a huge win.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well we can look at Italy for example. Also America has a lot of obese people, which are supposedly at a high risk, so it’s possible we see a higher fatality rate. I personally don’t think so just trying to answer your question

We don't know the total number of infections in Italy so we can't get a meaningful estimate from there.

Meneghini and Gram Pedersen of University of Padova just extended the standard “SIR” epidemiology model with quarantine and it has the nice property of being able to estimate the infections from the observables. Preprint on Researchgate: “ Quantifying undetected COVID-19 cases and effects of containment measures in Italy”

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question for OP: does this data change your mind? If not, what would?

Zombies.

I think a zombie outbreak would be much easier to handle, at least in the US.

It would probably be much easier to see who is infected, and thus "eliminate" the problem. In the US, there are plenty of bullets and guns everywhere.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#405
post #358
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea isn’t testing everyone, every day. Neither is China. So there’s a middle ground here somewhere.

The number of new cases in South Korea has started to increase again, and they keep getting new clusters unlinked to any known cases: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southko... I suspect that they're going to have to give up on the tracing and testing approach in the next few weeks.

Daily New Cases isn’t actually trending upward at this point;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore...

The article you linked is based on a single day’s new case count.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#406

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

"All this to say: I think we are losing our economy and I think probably this isn’t effective."

Fixed this for you.

(Additional comment: I will counter with I'm really amazed how quickly people threw away the economy in an effort to reduce lost lives. Normally, I expect people to be much more mercurial)

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#407

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

I suspect after 1 or 2 months people will say enough is enough and force their reps to call off the quarantine. We can't do this for 18 months.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#408
post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I more or less agree with a temporary shut down however I see the quote all the time, and it is a stupid statement, because you equally can not have a life with out a livelihood This the the doctors delima, that does not factor in quality of life in to the "life" equation, life with no quality is not much of a life. Further I have big problems with the Governer or the government making that choice, it should not be t…

I generally agree. That said, we tried the personal responsibility route, and then the bars packed up for St. Patrick's day and the airports ended up becoming giant petri dishes - literally overnight. And then many, many, many people decided that "don't panic" meant somewhere between clear all the shelves at every store and ignore the problem until it goes away. I don't envy the local governments trying to contain th…

Well I am equally not sure why it is federal governments responsibility to help and direct

In our system of government the State Governments are suppose to be the most powerful, not the federal government

it is a Union of States after all.

The fact that in the last 100 years or so we continually have centralized more and more power into the hands of the federal government is a huge issue, but instead of recognizing that issue people seeming want to put more and more power federally and continue to strip their local governments of power

The smaller the unit of power the faster it can react to local changes. In situations like this it SHOULD be local government leading the charge not a slow monolithic federal government

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#409
post #316

Better solution: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YbtJGn7ida2IYNgwCFk3Sjhs... We can shelter-in-place as long as needed. And no businesses go under, and no one loses their home.

Pausing all financial obligations seems so obvious, why hasn't it been done and barely in the public discourse yet?

It's essentially a nuke. It's pausing revenue in a lot of situations. Some of that revenue then goes on to pay other workers.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#410

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

No. It's because of everything in the posted presentation - 50% of companies are SMBs (in the States), and they understandably don't keep enough reserves to weather 3 months of losses.

The stock market is reflecting that the damage this will do on the economy is real, and currently unknown but expected to be pretty bad.

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