Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive, global hysteria pandemic - much more dangerous.
The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
31–40 of 253 posts
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is key. We really can't compare countries confirmed case numbers directly because they are operating very different testing programmes. Just look at Germany. More confirmed cases than the USA, but a quarter of the deaths. Germany also has 80% as many cases as Spain, but about 5% as many deaths. All that, without a severe lockdown. Clearly something completely different is going on there than in many other countr…
We could possibly clean up the numbers, assuming the death rate is predictable across regions. Take numbers from a region where testing is frequent, say the death rate is 2%. Then scale the numbers in a region with lack of testing to match the 2% death rate. Not perfect, as there are external factors like hospital capacity/quality and existing population health. However, it should give a closer approximation of total…
Well unfortunately US has much higher rate of obesity, diabetes and other factors that will increase mortality so would be pretty hard.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#33Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive,…
> all of them with severe background illness,
Diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity: these aren't what people think of as "severe background illness", but all of these seriously increase risk.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is the health care system like number of ICUs, training of doctors and stuff like not being able to get antibiotics simply over the counter like in Italy. If my memory serves me right e.g. in Italy 29% have a resistance to antibiotics, in Germany only 0.4%.
People don't become resistant to antibiotics, bacteria do and resistant bacteria in Italy would just spread to Germany. Anyway Covid-19 is a virus, not a bacterium.
While its true SARS-CoV-2 is a virus, opportunistic bacterial pneumonia is a secondary complication of Covid19 which increases its lethality. So you need decent antibiotics too.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#35This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…
It is not an exponential, it's a logistic curve, just approximate with the SIS model, it's easier.
Yeah I knew by Sunday that tomorrow we're hitting 30,000 cases in Spain. My assumptions worked. And it's just the tip, because I don't know anything about whether there's been randomized sampling, so who knows about the normalization.
I just can't believe this. No one listens and this is in-your-face obvious.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#36Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive,…
That’s true only when hospitals are functioning. Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10%, from the virus itself as well as other unrelated causes which get no ICU treatment.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#37Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive,…
> checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary
Post link plz
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
We could possibly clean up the numbers, assuming the death rate is predictable across regions. Take numbers from a region where testing is frequent, say the death rate is 2%. Then scale the numbers in a region with lack of testing to match the 2% death rate. Not perfect, as there are external factors like hospital capacity/quality and existing population health. However, it should give a closer approximation of total…
Well unfortunately US has much higher rate of obesity, diabetes and other factors that will increase mortality so would be pretty hard.
China has a much higher rate of smokers, poor air quality, and existing respiratory disease.
Do you have any statistics pointing to obesity as an increased risk factor for a respritory disease?
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#39This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…
> the USA curve is fearsomely steep This analysis is difficult because it is related to testing capacity. We all know testing capacity was limited early on. It remains limited, but is growing. The faster capacity grows, the steeper the curve will be. Want to have a less steep curve? Lower the amount of testing. In another comment, you claim looking at the curves leaves out politics completely, but it doesn't. Any pol…
once people's minds are made up, it's incredibly difficult to walk them back to a different reasoning. Apart from the lack of early tests the problem is therefore exacerbated by the downplaying of the problem during the critical early stages. It wasn't just lost-time that needs to be made up for but also that mitigations will now become harder to swallow!
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#40This is bad. I've been graphing the exp curve for Italy, UK and USA and the USA curve is fearsomely steep. Italy has more cases now but the USA is growing fastest and looks like it will match Italy's on ~March 28th (looking at the most recent 10 points, see below) The rate of growth in the USA, extrapolated, is just huge. Looking at the whole curve it does not match an exponential well, I think the early part is skew…
It is not an exponential, it's a logistic curve, just approximate with the SIS model, it's easier. Yeah I knew by Sunday that tomorrow we're hitting 30,000 cases in Spain. My assumptions worked. And it's just the tip, because I don't know anything about whether there's been randomized sampling, so who knows about the normalization. I just can't believe this. No one listens and this is in-your-face obvious.
I realise it's actually a sigmoid but an early decent approximation is an exponential, no?
(edit: good catch though)