Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#361

Post by sokoloff » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:46 AM UTC

asdff wrote: post #266

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Thinking abstractly, why not? If the businesses are open, the money is there to pay everyone. If you send everyone in the economy home, where has that money that would have been used for salary gone? Someone is holding it rather than distributing it, that's the only reason. So, take a lo…

You can easily find the person who is holding rather than distributing the money. In fact, you looked at them in the mirror this morning.

I am voluntarily (10% family-preservation, 90% community service) staying in my house. I’m now “hoarding” (to use your hyperbolic term) all the money that would normally go to fuel, eating out, and entertainment.

The restaurant, movie theater, and gas station owner would, circumstances permitting, surely prefer to be able to serve me and I likewise.

Why don’t I just mail checks to people that I’d normally buy from? Because I don’t know what my own economic future looks like. Will I have a job in 6 months? What will my retirement savings look like then? Plus, I can’t just send the money where it would have gone and also send it to the people who are now selling me more at-home food or new goods/services that I need to be productive at home.

I’m fortunate to work as a W-2 office worker/spreadsheet miner, at least for now. If I were a bar, movie theater, or auto repair shop owner or worker, I’d be in a lot worse shape.

This is not a Bezos, Gates, Musk driven problem. This is driven by the inability of the consumer to consume normally.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#362

Post by marvin » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:48 AM UTC

totalZero wrote: post #354

nostromo wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

Quarantine doesn't send anyone to the stone age. The economic shock will be devastating. But there is no long-term, sustained growth without occasional pruning. Also... You make the error of assuming that (A) high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart disease mean that a person is "already dying," and (B) people who survive don't become debilitatingly sick.

Some of this economic damage is also the result of toppling imbalances that have been artificially propped up since before 2008.

The virus is just a convenient excuse; a crisis would have hit at the first sign of trouble.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#363

Post by baal80spam » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:50 AM UTC

booleandilemma wrote: post #6

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

Hmm, I think NY still 'gets it' much more than Tokyo, just see for yourself:

Shibuya Crossing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vishEDtgdw Times Square: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRe-514tGMg

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#364

Post by chewz » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:51 AM UTC

lend000 wrote: post #329

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Not to mention it isn't really solving the virus situation in most implementations. For example, everybody is packed into the local supermarkets at the same time in my area. Not only is there higher density due to closed restaurants, but also due to reduced hours (somebody thought curfews were a good idea). In their panic, people want "something" to be done. In a couple years, we will be talking about how 90% of poli…

> For example, everybody is packed into the local supermarkets at the same time in my area.

Well in my country (Poland) with all the noise and confusion some rational procedures get implemented. Supermarkets limit strictly the number of customers inside. Cashiers get physical protection from customers. Contactless payment limits have been doubled. Etc.

So we are getting time for implementing changes and the life can start returning to 'new normal'.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#365

Post by marvin » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:01 AM UTC

There is a risk that the response to this epidemic will tear some parts of American society apart. Some of the rhetoric in this thread is both representative and frightening in that regard.

People of low means do not like getting told that they must go back to work and accept the risk of losing their parents and getting permanent lung injury. They will also not like getting told to stay at home and default on their rent and mortgage.

People in a situation like that can take desperate measures, especially when there’s many millions of them.

You guys really need to step up the political measures to take care of these folks. Emergency bailout style. The time has never been more ripe to test out basic income.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#366

Post by lotsofpulp » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:01 AM UTC

JoshuaDavid wrote: post #142

lotsofpulp wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why income limits? Would it not be easier and faster to just adjust marginal tax rates and simply give everyone money right now?

That is the question -- it might legitimately be harder to adjust marginal tax rates than to add an income limit, even if the outcomes would be identical either way.

I meant logistically easier.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#367

Post by lordnacho » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:04 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #214

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's Red Cross supposedly advised Italy yesterday that 'total economic shutdown'[1] is the only way to contain the COVID-19 situation in the country now. It all comes to what part of the curve the country is now, the choice being total lockdown incl. economic shutdown vs aggressive testing. Considering US lapsed on aggressive measures in the beginning and that proper test kits are just being flown in from Italy[2]…

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

> Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man).

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses.

This is true, but what about the overcrowded hospitals this causes? People who weren't gonna die will now die. And what do we do about the doctors and nurses who are pleading with everyone to act?

Perhaps something along the lines of strict contact tracing could have been done, but now it seems like it's out of hand.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#368

Post by AntonStratiev » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:06 AM UTC

marvin wrote: post #360

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHO director specifically mentioned in his briefing yesterday that 'Young people are not invincible and that data from many countries show number of cases below age It's not just fatalities, hospitalisation i.e. exhausting healthcare facilities is the primary concern with COVID-19. There is no guarantee that young people wouldn't make up high mortality list in a poor country with high younger population, rich countri…

Not to mention complications. Little is known yet, but there are indications that some surviving patients get permanent lung damage. Especially when intensive care is not available. Imagine having 30 million 40-year-olds who will be short of breath for the rest of their lives.

There is no need to imagine, we have the forecasts from the Imperial College report:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

There are 40 million 40-somethings in the USA, you're proposing that 100% of them will have lung damage.

Let's imagine that 80% of the population is infected, that 80% of cases are symptomatic, and that 80% of the 4.90% of hospitalised cases (this 4.90 is direct from the report) get damaged lungs. This is one million 40-somethings, not the entire population.

1 million sounds like a lot, but its only 2.5% of the population at that age range, and assume worst-case.

You know what causes reduced lung functionality in adults? Asthma, driven by air pollution from vehicles and coal power plants. 7.7% of adults have Asthma. Where is the war-scale drive to eliminate fossil-fueled vehicles and power generation?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#369

Post by reissbaker » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:12 AM UTC

MikeAmelung wrote: post #336

yread wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop spreading this. Median hospitalization age is 65. 40% of patients on icu are under 50. With the rates of hospitalization in 30-39 year olds no country would have enough icu beds even for them

Gonna need to see some actual data. Median hospitalization age of 65 and then 40% of patients in the ICU being under 50 already doesn't even make any sense.

Sure it does. 40% under 50 years old means 60% are 50+ years old. The median is by definition the 50th percentile; aka, at least 50 years old and likely somewhat older, since more than half of all cases are in people who are 50+ years old. Median age being 65 aligns pretty well with that, given that 65 is somewhat above 50.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#370

Post by saiya-jin » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:14 AM UTC

40four wrote: post #255

airstrike wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. So far... wait until you get the number of critical cases above the number of ICU beds and you'll see 18 year olds dying from this

Based on what? According to the Bloomberg article - ”As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.” They reached maxed capacity of beds or ventilators right? We read stories of doctors having to make life & death decisions. Where are the dead 18 year olds? Spreading info like that on a hunch, or an exaggeration,…

Current situation in Geneva, Switzerland - 2 critical male patients, one 27, one 29, no prior comorbidities at all. Not sure they will make it. Wife is a doctor and just checked this in their information system.

The idea that relatively young (most of folks here) will be just fine is not true. With overwhelmed healthcare, most criticals will simply die. Once doctors will get sick (and they will), it will make everything, I mean literally any disease and injury much more dangerous. Sure, most will survive, hopefully without any permanent lungs/kidneys/testes damage (was this confirmed or just a rumor?).

Maybe as humanity we've grown weak and can't tolerate medieval mortality rates anymore, but this is who we are right now. There is no easy solution to this. There is unavoidable harsh economic impact coming. Nobody has clue which option will be at the end better than others.

Accept it, and try to find ways to help fellow human beings instead. We are in this all together, rich and poor, left and right alike.